City eyes reserve fund to balance books

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The city is planning to dip into its reserves for the next two years in order to balance the books.

Finance department officials are anticipating a shortfall of $36.3 million in the 2016 budget, followed by a further deficit of $34.9 million the following year.

Much of the budgetary strain forecast for 2016 is the result of cost overruns and revenue shortfalls in 2015 for items such as winter maintenance costs, arbitrated settlements and unmet sponsorship targets, according to a staff report prepared ahead of next Tuesday’s finance committee meeting.

The report — which assumes there will be no additional tax hike but suggests some user fees could increase — identifies several ways to keep costs down, such as reducing advertising, increasing class sizes for employee training, and reviewing the summer student program and fleet standards.

But realizing any actual savings from these reviews, the report says, may take more than a year, so staff is proposing to use reserve funds for 2016 and 2017. The full savings should be in place by 2018, when staff anticipates a shortfall of $30.8 million.

A reserve fund used to replace city-owned vehicles and equipment has been highlighted as the possible source of the one-time cash injection. The original plan was to spend $23 million replacing vehicles next year, but this would now be done on a case-by-case basis.

Such a move would allow $11.5 million to be drawn from the reserve next year, followed by $6.7 million in 2017.

The budgetary black eye comes at a time when the city’s tax base isn’t growing as quickly as it once did.

The growth rate for new residential and commercial properties has equaled approximately two per cent of the base for many years, but that appears to be slowing down.

Ottawa is still growing, but the amount of tax revenue generated from new properties as a percentage of the taxation base is declining. The finance department estimates that the amount of new tax revenues from growth is projected to be $18.4 million next year, which represents a 1.3-per-cent increase. The department has used this level of increase for 2017 and 2018.

Staff has also assumed an annual average increase of 1.75 per cent for all services funded from a city-wide levy, which includes public health, library and police. As was the case this year, the citywide 1.75-per-cent increase is expected to mean a two-per-cent hike for residential homeowners.

Transit services, however, are under such pressure that staff is recommending a 2.5-per-cent annual increase in the transit levy for each of the next three years.

The city is currently developing a new water, wastewater and storm water rate structure, but it won’t be ready for discussion until early next year, so staff is proposing a water rate increase of six per cent. That’s in keeping with the long-range financial plan council adopted in 2012.

When the 2015 draft budget was tabled in February, city manager Kent Kirkpatrick warned council that the financial challenges facing the city in the coming years required looking beyond the traditional one-year budget window and, instead, adopting a multi-year approach.

Such an approach allows for the time required to develop and implement strategies that may take years to effect, the report says.

Councillor-led public consultation meetings are being held until Oct. 8 at various locations across the city (see below). Input provided will be forwarded to the mayor and city manager for consideration while developing the draft budget.

A special email address — budget2016@ottawa.ca — has also been created for residents to submit budget ideas electronically.

Draft budget will be tabled at the Nov. 12 council meeting. Boards, committees and commissions will hear delegations at regularly scheduled meetings throughout November and early December.

Council will vote on the budget at its Dec. 9 meeting.

Upcoming budget consultations

Oct. 6, 6:30-8:30 p.m.

Jim Durrell Recreation Centre (1265 Walkley Rd.)

Councillors: Riley Brockington (River), David Chernushenko (Capital), Jean Cloutier (Alta Vista), Diane Deans (Gloucester-Southgate)

Oct. 7, 6-8 p.m.

St. Laurent Complex (525 Coté St.)

Councillors: Mathieu Fleury (Rideau-Vanier), Tobi Nussbaum (Rideau-Rockcliffe)

Oct. 8, 6-8 p.m.

Makerspace North (250 City Centre Ave., bay 216)

Councillors: Jeff Leiper (Kitchissippi), Catherine McKenney (Somerset)

mpearson@ottawacitizen.com

twitter.com/mpearson78

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