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Leadnow, which wants to encourage anti-Conservative strategic voting, has fresh new polls Tuesday that require me to eat some crow.
The group has had Environics conduct riding-level surveys in places expected to have close races, including in Kanata-Carleton and Nepean — ridings where it’s reasonable to imagine the Tory candidates winning but not securing majorities. What they want is to figure out which non-Conservative is closest to winning, and then encourage the other parties’ supporters to back that candidate even if they have to hold their noses to do it.
They’re pretty agnostic as between Liberals, New Democrats and even Greens. Whichever non-Tory is best-placed to win, that’s who they want you to vote for. As before, in Ottawa they’re working with Ecology Ottawa, whose theory is that any of the other parties would be better for the environment than the Conservatives.
Leadnow released a previous batch of polls in September that included several suburban Ottawa ridings, about which I wrote this:
New Democrat candidates poll in the teens, close to the NDP’s bedrock level of support. Those are voters who’ll be awfully difficult for Liberals to poach in meaningful numbers. … n Ottawa, the pretty clear splits are not great news for the anybody-but-Conservatives crowd, four weeks before election day.
I thought the NDP’s support, as measured in those previous Leadnow polls, was about as low as it could go. The Liberals, I thought, were doing well but would have a hell of a time convincing the hardest-core New Democrats to come their way.
The newly released polls say that was wrong.
Environics has the Liberals’ Chandra Arya ahead of the Conservatives’ Andy Wang in Nepean, 47-40, with the New Democrats and Greens way, way back. (Poll conducted Oct. 9-11. Sample size: 1,032. Margin of error: 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)
The firm has the Liberals’ Karen McCrimmon ahead of the Conservatives’ Walter Pamic in Kanata-Carleton, 50-39, also with the NDP and Greens nowhere. (Poll conducted Oct. 9-11. Sample size: 861. Margin of error: 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)
You can find the full results here.
The polls have margins of error and there are the usual sampling concerns and whatnot that could mean the underlying reality isn’t what the Environics polls say. But if we take the two sets at face value — which is the only thing you can do if you’re comparing them — they show a change, particularly in Nepean, that’s exactly what the Leadnow folks would like.
Andy Wang’s Conservative support is exactly where it was in mid-September: at 40 per cent. Whereas Chandra Arya has sucked up votes for the Liberals that were previously going elsewhere, particularly the NDP. He’s up 13 points, having consolidated the anti-Tory vote.
In Kanata-Carleton, it’s not so clear cut, with the startling rise in support for the Liberals’ Karen McCrimmon having come from all quarters. Environics found that she’s attracted five points of support from the New Democrats (more than a third of the people who’d been willing to vote for John Hansen last month), five from the Tories’ Walter Pamic, and two from the Greens. That gives her a big lead over Pamic.
(I confess I find that number for McCrimmon amazingly high. Maybe Environics has detected a takeoff for the Liberals in their riding-level polls that hasn’t yet been reported by national pollsters who eased up over the Thanksgiving weekend.)
Are natural New Democratic Party supporters in suburban Ottawa planning to vote Liberal because they can’t stand the Conservatives? Has Justin Trudeau genuinely convinced them that he’d be the best prime minister and his party has the best policies? Are the polls crap? Whatever the explanation, these are figures that will have Liberal supporters dancing.
dreevely@ottawacitizen.com
twitter.com/davidreevely
查看原文...
The group has had Environics conduct riding-level surveys in places expected to have close races, including in Kanata-Carleton and Nepean — ridings where it’s reasonable to imagine the Tory candidates winning but not securing majorities. What they want is to figure out which non-Conservative is closest to winning, and then encourage the other parties’ supporters to back that candidate even if they have to hold their noses to do it.
They’re pretty agnostic as between Liberals, New Democrats and even Greens. Whichever non-Tory is best-placed to win, that’s who they want you to vote for. As before, in Ottawa they’re working with Ecology Ottawa, whose theory is that any of the other parties would be better for the environment than the Conservatives.
Leadnow released a previous batch of polls in September that included several suburban Ottawa ridings, about which I wrote this:
New Democrat candidates poll in the teens, close to the NDP’s bedrock level of support. Those are voters who’ll be awfully difficult for Liberals to poach in meaningful numbers. … n Ottawa, the pretty clear splits are not great news for the anybody-but-Conservatives crowd, four weeks before election day.
I thought the NDP’s support, as measured in those previous Leadnow polls, was about as low as it could go. The Liberals, I thought, were doing well but would have a hell of a time convincing the hardest-core New Democrats to come their way.
The newly released polls say that was wrong.
Environics has the Liberals’ Chandra Arya ahead of the Conservatives’ Andy Wang in Nepean, 47-40, with the New Democrats and Greens way, way back. (Poll conducted Oct. 9-11. Sample size: 1,032. Margin of error: 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)
The firm has the Liberals’ Karen McCrimmon ahead of the Conservatives’ Walter Pamic in Kanata-Carleton, 50-39, also with the NDP and Greens nowhere. (Poll conducted Oct. 9-11. Sample size: 861. Margin of error: 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)
You can find the full results here.
The polls have margins of error and there are the usual sampling concerns and whatnot that could mean the underlying reality isn’t what the Environics polls say. But if we take the two sets at face value — which is the only thing you can do if you’re comparing them — they show a change, particularly in Nepean, that’s exactly what the Leadnow folks would like.
Andy Wang’s Conservative support is exactly where it was in mid-September: at 40 per cent. Whereas Chandra Arya has sucked up votes for the Liberals that were previously going elsewhere, particularly the NDP. He’s up 13 points, having consolidated the anti-Tory vote.
In Kanata-Carleton, it’s not so clear cut, with the startling rise in support for the Liberals’ Karen McCrimmon having come from all quarters. Environics found that she’s attracted five points of support from the New Democrats (more than a third of the people who’d been willing to vote for John Hansen last month), five from the Tories’ Walter Pamic, and two from the Greens. That gives her a big lead over Pamic.
(I confess I find that number for McCrimmon amazingly high. Maybe Environics has detected a takeoff for the Liberals in their riding-level polls that hasn’t yet been reported by national pollsters who eased up over the Thanksgiving weekend.)
Are natural New Democratic Party supporters in suburban Ottawa planning to vote Liberal because they can’t stand the Conservatives? Has Justin Trudeau genuinely convinced them that he’d be the best prime minister and his party has the best policies? Are the polls crap? Whatever the explanation, these are figures that will have Liberal supporters dancing.
dreevely@ottawacitizen.com
twitter.com/davidreevely
查看原文...
