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Liberals continue to surge and have strong momentum as election day nears, new poll finds
Mark Kennedy, Postmedia News | October 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Oct 17 9:27 PM ET
Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have enjoyed a surge in voter support in the closing week of the election campaign and have strong momentum as Canadians prepare to cast their ballots Monday, a new survey conducted for Postmedia suggests.
The poll by Mainstreet Research, conducted Wednesday and Thursday, found that the Liberals had a five-point lead among decided and leaning voters over their nearest rivals, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives.
After a marathon campaign that featured strong debate on issues ranging from the economy to wearing the niqab, Mainstreet’s numbers indicated that the desire for change among the electorate was finding a home in the Liberal camp, as support for Tom Mulcair’s NDP faded.
Among the poll’s main national findings:
— The Liberals had the support of 38 per cent of Canadian voters who had made up their mind or were leaning in one direction.
— The governing Conservatives were running second, with 33 per cent of the decided and leaning vote.
— The NDP was well back, with 21 per cent.
— The Green party had five per cent, while the Bloc Québécois, running only in Quebec, had four per cent.
Mainstreet president Quito Maggi said in an interview Friday that if the polling numbers carry through to election day, the Liberals could be on the “razor’s edge” of winning a majority.
Canadians will go to the polls after a 78-day campaign that, for the most part, featured a tight three-way race.
Maggi said that throughout the campaign, 70 per cent of voters indicated they wanted a change of government in Ottawa after a decade of Conservative rule.
Moreover, about 50 per cent of NDP supporters said they could change their mind before election day.
Maggi said the NDP’s recent drop in support among Quebecers amid the niqab debate triggered a “mass migration of votes” nationally as many New Democratic supporters concluded the Liberals had the better chance of defeating the Conservatives.
“It’s like a snowball that’s rolling downhill. It has momentum. Nothing’s going to stop it.”
He said the NDP made a critical mistake by adopting a strategy of moving to the political centre by promising a balanced budget. “People were looking for change. And selling same as change just doesn’t work. You have to be different.”
By comparison, Maggi said Trudeau gained the attention of voters at critical points in the race by sticking to his stance that he would run three years of deficits to fund infrastructure investments, and by categorically rejecting the F-35 military jet.
“Those things set him apart and he was the change candidate.”
The poll found the Liberals scoring well among Canadians in three key political battlegrounds: Ontario, where they had a strong lead; Quebec, where they replaced the NDP as the front-runner; and British Columbia, where they were in a tight race for first place against the Conservatives.
Notably, Maggi said that in Quebec, outside of Montreal and Quebec City, there’s a tight four-way race for dozens of seats and that the result could have a major impact on the number of Liberal ridings in the election.
The pollster surveyed 5,546 Canadians.
It wasn’t clear if last-minute developments in the campaign would change — for better or worse — the Liberal momentum.
Trudeau spent the latter part of the week reacting to the resignation of his campaign co-chair, Dan Gagnier, over an email Gagnier wrote to TransCanada officials.
Meanwhile, Harper fended off questions about why his campaign allowed Toronto’s controversial politicians Rob and Doug Ford to attend his events.
The Liberals had a commanding lead in public support in Atlantic Canada and were running second in Alberta, where the Conservatives were still in first place.
Support in the country’s three largest provinces, according to the poll, was as follows (leaning and decided voters):
– Ontario: Liberals (44 per cent); Conservatives (33 per cent); NDP (19 per cent); Green (four per cent).
– Quebec: Liberals (32 per cent); NDP (25 per cent); Conservative (22 per cent); Bloc Québécois (17 per cent); Green (four per cent).
– British Columbia: Liberals (33 per cent); Conservatives (32 per cent); NDP (24 per cent); Green (11 per cent).
Mark Kennedy, Postmedia News | October 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Oct 17 9:27 PM ET
Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have enjoyed a surge in voter support in the closing week of the election campaign and have strong momentum as Canadians prepare to cast their ballots Monday, a new survey conducted for Postmedia suggests.
The poll by Mainstreet Research, conducted Wednesday and Thursday, found that the Liberals had a five-point lead among decided and leaning voters over their nearest rivals, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives.
After a marathon campaign that featured strong debate on issues ranging from the economy to wearing the niqab, Mainstreet’s numbers indicated that the desire for change among the electorate was finding a home in the Liberal camp, as support for Tom Mulcair’s NDP faded.
Among the poll’s main national findings:
— The Liberals had the support of 38 per cent of Canadian voters who had made up their mind or were leaning in one direction.
— The governing Conservatives were running second, with 33 per cent of the decided and leaning vote.
— The NDP was well back, with 21 per cent.
— The Green party had five per cent, while the Bloc Québécois, running only in Quebec, had four per cent.
Mainstreet president Quito Maggi said in an interview Friday that if the polling numbers carry through to election day, the Liberals could be on the “razor’s edge” of winning a majority.
Canadians will go to the polls after a 78-day campaign that, for the most part, featured a tight three-way race.
Maggi said that throughout the campaign, 70 per cent of voters indicated they wanted a change of government in Ottawa after a decade of Conservative rule.
Moreover, about 50 per cent of NDP supporters said they could change their mind before election day.
Maggi said the NDP’s recent drop in support among Quebecers amid the niqab debate triggered a “mass migration of votes” nationally as many New Democratic supporters concluded the Liberals had the better chance of defeating the Conservatives.
“It’s like a snowball that’s rolling downhill. It has momentum. Nothing’s going to stop it.”
He said the NDP made a critical mistake by adopting a strategy of moving to the political centre by promising a balanced budget. “People were looking for change. And selling same as change just doesn’t work. You have to be different.”
By comparison, Maggi said Trudeau gained the attention of voters at critical points in the race by sticking to his stance that he would run three years of deficits to fund infrastructure investments, and by categorically rejecting the F-35 military jet.
“Those things set him apart and he was the change candidate.”
The poll found the Liberals scoring well among Canadians in three key political battlegrounds: Ontario, where they had a strong lead; Quebec, where they replaced the NDP as the front-runner; and British Columbia, where they were in a tight race for first place against the Conservatives.
Notably, Maggi said that in Quebec, outside of Montreal and Quebec City, there’s a tight four-way race for dozens of seats and that the result could have a major impact on the number of Liberal ridings in the election.
The pollster surveyed 5,546 Canadians.
It wasn’t clear if last-minute developments in the campaign would change — for better or worse — the Liberal momentum.
Trudeau spent the latter part of the week reacting to the resignation of his campaign co-chair, Dan Gagnier, over an email Gagnier wrote to TransCanada officials.
Meanwhile, Harper fended off questions about why his campaign allowed Toronto’s controversial politicians Rob and Doug Ford to attend his events.
The Liberals had a commanding lead in public support in Atlantic Canada and were running second in Alberta, where the Conservatives were still in first place.
Support in the country’s three largest provinces, according to the poll, was as follows (leaning and decided voters):
– Ontario: Liberals (44 per cent); Conservatives (33 per cent); NDP (19 per cent); Green (four per cent).
– Quebec: Liberals (32 per cent); NDP (25 per cent); Conservative (22 per cent); Bloc Québécois (17 per cent); Green (four per cent).
– British Columbia: Liberals (33 per cent); Conservatives (32 per cent); NDP (24 per cent); Green (11 per cent).
