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The big question for NDP MP Paul Dewar in this election is whether the apparent upswing in electoral support for the Liberals, assuming it holds, will drain too much of his support when Ottawa Centre voters head to the polls Monday.
Poll-wise, the incumbent has maintained a healthy distance ahead of his main challengers, particularly Liberal candidate Catherine McKenna. But the last two weeks have seen the gap narrow somewhat.
Early last week, an aggregate poll had Dewar with 40.7-per-cent support among leaning and decided voters compared to McKenna’s 33.4 per cent. The Conservative candidate Damian Konstantinakos was at 17.8 per cent, while the Green and Libertarian candidates were in single digits.
However, a week earlier Dewar had a 12-percentage point lead over McKenna — 42 per cent compared to 30 per cent —while Konstantinakos stood at 22-per-cent support.
At the time, Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research said Dewar’s seat looked safe, but he warned the riding “could be put into play” if the national NDP campaign continued to sputter.
For decades, Ottawa Centre voters tilted Liberal. But in 2004, New Democrat Ed Broadbent, a former party leader, captured the riding. It has been an NDP fortress ever since, with Dewar winning the riding in 2006 and 2008 by increasing margins.
All three of the main candidates made a big final push over the past week to woo voters.
McKenna put out more mailings, did more door knocking and prepared a video, all in a “hard, final push to secure undecided voters.” She wants voters to think strategically on the notion that a vote for the Liberals is the best chance to unseat the Conservative government.
“We’re being pretty targeted on (strategic voting) and reaching out to those voters” whose main concern is getting rid of the Conservatives, she said last week.
Dewar, meanwhile, emphasized that the NDP are the better anti-Harper option since they held 100 seats in the last Parliament — compared to the Liberals’ 34 seats — and, therefore, have better chance of gaining enough seats to form a government.
The two leading candidates ran vigorous campaigns, attended numerous debates and seemingly made more local pledges than all other candidates combined, including reforming the National Capital Commission (in different ways) and re-thinking the Memorial to the Victims of Communism.
Dewar promised to plant more trees in the capital, and reminded residents that the next phase of LeBreton flats development must include affordable housing. “Whatever colour the next government takes, I’ll fight to make sure that affordable housing is included in any plan the NCC approves there.”
Among McKenna’s local announcements was a pledge to turn the former U.S. Embassy into a public venue that would appeal to tourists — after public consultation — and to improve the cycling infrastructure in Ottawa Centre.
Konstantinakos intended to “be on the street every moment I can” during the final days of the campaign and “meeting as many voters as I can.” He dismissed the polls as “not very good predictors of election results.”
He urged voters not to take seriously his opponents’ claims that the Conservative government had strained relations with the public service, pointing out that if the Liberals were elected and went ahead with campaign promises in run a deficit to pay for infrastructure projects, the result would inevitably be cuts to the public service.
“Running a $10 billion deficit today means layoffs in the public service tomorrow,” Konstantinakos said.
The candidates’ efforts will no doubt contribute to a good turnout at the polls. In the 2011 election nearly 75 per cent of eligible voters in Ottawa Centre voted, a 5.5-per-cent jump over the 2008 election. Set this against a national voter participation averages in the 60-per-cent range nationally — 61.4 per cent in 2011 and 58.8 per cent in 2008.
And Ottawa Centre had the highest turnout of any riding in Canada during the advance polls earlier this month.
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Poll-wise, the incumbent has maintained a healthy distance ahead of his main challengers, particularly Liberal candidate Catherine McKenna. But the last two weeks have seen the gap narrow somewhat.
Early last week, an aggregate poll had Dewar with 40.7-per-cent support among leaning and decided voters compared to McKenna’s 33.4 per cent. The Conservative candidate Damian Konstantinakos was at 17.8 per cent, while the Green and Libertarian candidates were in single digits.
However, a week earlier Dewar had a 12-percentage point lead over McKenna — 42 per cent compared to 30 per cent —while Konstantinakos stood at 22-per-cent support.
At the time, Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research said Dewar’s seat looked safe, but he warned the riding “could be put into play” if the national NDP campaign continued to sputter.
For decades, Ottawa Centre voters tilted Liberal. But in 2004, New Democrat Ed Broadbent, a former party leader, captured the riding. It has been an NDP fortress ever since, with Dewar winning the riding in 2006 and 2008 by increasing margins.
All three of the main candidates made a big final push over the past week to woo voters.
McKenna put out more mailings, did more door knocking and prepared a video, all in a “hard, final push to secure undecided voters.” She wants voters to think strategically on the notion that a vote for the Liberals is the best chance to unseat the Conservative government.
“We’re being pretty targeted on (strategic voting) and reaching out to those voters” whose main concern is getting rid of the Conservatives, she said last week.
Dewar, meanwhile, emphasized that the NDP are the better anti-Harper option since they held 100 seats in the last Parliament — compared to the Liberals’ 34 seats — and, therefore, have better chance of gaining enough seats to form a government.
The two leading candidates ran vigorous campaigns, attended numerous debates and seemingly made more local pledges than all other candidates combined, including reforming the National Capital Commission (in different ways) and re-thinking the Memorial to the Victims of Communism.
Dewar promised to plant more trees in the capital, and reminded residents that the next phase of LeBreton flats development must include affordable housing. “Whatever colour the next government takes, I’ll fight to make sure that affordable housing is included in any plan the NCC approves there.”
Among McKenna’s local announcements was a pledge to turn the former U.S. Embassy into a public venue that would appeal to tourists — after public consultation — and to improve the cycling infrastructure in Ottawa Centre.
Konstantinakos intended to “be on the street every moment I can” during the final days of the campaign and “meeting as many voters as I can.” He dismissed the polls as “not very good predictors of election results.”
He urged voters not to take seriously his opponents’ claims that the Conservative government had strained relations with the public service, pointing out that if the Liberals were elected and went ahead with campaign promises in run a deficit to pay for infrastructure projects, the result would inevitably be cuts to the public service.
“Running a $10 billion deficit today means layoffs in the public service tomorrow,” Konstantinakos said.
The candidates’ efforts will no doubt contribute to a good turnout at the polls. In the 2011 election nearly 75 per cent of eligible voters in Ottawa Centre voted, a 5.5-per-cent jump over the 2008 election. Set this against a national voter participation averages in the 60-per-cent range nationally — 61.4 per cent in 2011 and 58.8 per cent in 2008.
And Ottawa Centre had the highest turnout of any riding in Canada during the advance polls earlier this month.
Related
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