Reevely: Trudeau's unexpected Ottawa problem: too many MPs

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At a thank-you rally for local Liberals at the downtown Westin Tuesday afternoon, they lined up on the risers behind Justin Trudeau: Eleven jubilant waving problems.

The next prime minister has to make a cabinet before he can be sworn in, and he’s spoiled for choice in the capital.

At the rally, a dance medley pounding out of the speakers after Trudeau had gone, and every one of Ottawa’s 11 Liberal MPs-to-be was mobbed by shouting supporters congratulating them, shaking hands, asking for selfies. They’ve been the stars of their own campaigns for months and months, in most cases, and they’ve come to like it.

But there aren’t enough plums to go around, even if we look beyond the major departments to junior ministers of state, parliamentary secretaries and committee chairs.

Trudeau has to design his ministry first – anything new? any job that doesn’t have to be on its own? what shall we combine Foreign Affairs with this time? – then do the calculus on whom to reward and whom to disappoint, how to represent each region and demographic group. And oh, right, pick people who can wield executive power without lopping off their own limbs, or Trudeau’s.

The only sure thing here is that Orléans’ Andrew Leslie will be a minister. The former commander of the army signed up with Trudeau as a military adviser before he became a candidate and instantly gave the dauphin credibility on security and foreign affairs. His positions on Syria and the rest of the Middle East and on defence procurement are Trudeau’s. The new prime minister might not want to put Leslie in charge of former colleagues at Defence, but he’ll get something serious.

Close behind are longtime Liberal MPs David McGuinty and Mauril Bélanger, who’ve carried the red flag through thick and thin. McGuinty’s a lawyer and domestic-policy wonk (especially environment policy), Bélanger a Liberal streetfighter. They know Parliament, which most of their new colleagues don’t. Bélanger was once the Liberals’ chief whip and a junior defence minister.

One of them will probably make cabinet and be Trudeau’s senior minister for Ottawa-Gatineau, dispensing patronage and project funding and overseeing the National Capital Commission.

Bélanger, a lifelong pol with 18 years in Parliament under his belt, would be the old-school Liberal pick. McGuinty, first elected in 2004 against deepening Liberal decline, would be the new-look one. On substance, they’ve been side-by-side in calling for major changes to a downtown anti-communism memorial, reforms to the NCC, support for light rail.

The two veterans share a tier with Catherine McKenna, the bright young lawyer and NGO activist who knocked off Paul Dewar in Ottawa Centre, and Karen McCrimmon, another career military officer who turned Kanata-Carleton red. They both pulled off unlikely wins, they’ve run things, and they’re women. That matters to Trudeau, who’s promised gender parity in his cabinet.

Anita Vandenbeld’s win in Ottawa West-Nepean was more predictable and her experience is more as a policy person than as a boss, putting her a notch below McKenna and McCrimmon in cabinet potential, but she has a ton of international experience and has been a loyal Liberal for a long time.

Any of them might get seasoning in junior roles as ministers of state (responsible for special sections of larger portfolios) or parliamentary secretaries, to see how they handle moderate responsibilities before getting bigger ones.

Then there are Chandra Arya in Nepean, Francis Drouin in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Steven MacKinnon in Gatineau, Greg Fergus in Hull-Aylmer and Will Amos in Pontiac. All men, all rookie legislators.

Arya’s a smalltime tech executive. Amos is a crusading environmental lawyer. Drouin, MacKinnon and Fergus are political animals, the latter two of them former national directors of the Liberal party; they know politics but all three have made money as government-relations types, making them difficult choices for cabinet.

Fergus and Arya would add colour to an otherwise lily-white group of ministers and juniors. In the interest of getting in some Gatineau representation, Fergus is more likely to be plucked from the back bench.

Trudeau’s eventual picks will depend on more than local calculations. He has skills and qualities to blend from all across the country, including huge Atlantic and Toronto contingents and a tiny one from the Prairies. What his highest-profile MPs want matters, too: Would it miff a Leslie-level ally to get, say, Transport instead of Defence or Foreign Affairs?

None of which will make sifting his Ottawa-Gatineau caucus for cabinet talent any easier. This is a good problem to have, but still a problem.

dreevely@ottawacitizen.com
twitter.com/davidreevely

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