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The Liberals upped their vote across the country and dominated Atlantic Canada, but it’s in Ontario that their majority was made. They swept Toronto and Ottawa and picked up even rural and Northern seats — 80 of them in all — not just by defeating Conservatives, but devastating New Democrats.
The Tories had worked hard to tie Justin Trudeau to Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne, who went all-in on her support for Trudeau in the last days of the campaign. They succeeded. It just didn’t work out the way they’d planned.
Wynne was fed up with the toxic relationship between her government and the federal Tories, one she saw as having been poisoned by the Conservatives for purely political reasons. She put her provincial organization at the federal Liberals’ disposal early, said she was doing it, urged her MPPs to be a part of it.
The premier herself spent days near the end of the campaign speaking for Liberal candidates hoping to beat New Democrats in Toronto. Meanwhile, the Conservatives ran television ads showing Trudeau and Wynne rallying together, assuming that was damaging.
“I think that she motivated people and gave comfort that we had a great team and would be able to partner at the provincial level,” says Catherine McKenna, the new Liberal MP for Ottawa Centre, who defeated veteran New Democrat Paul Dewar. Animosity between Wynne and Stephen Harper has been a serious problem, she said, and most people don’t see it as having begun at Queen’s Park. “I think the idea that she was willing to work and excited to work with Justin Trudeau as prime minister really was awesome.”
Wynne’s image reinforced Trudeau’s, says Alex Cullen, a one-time Liberal MPP who turned New Democrat years ago. The former city councillor has been a Parliament Hill aide to a Toronto New Democrat MP who’s out of a job, Mike Sullivan, and worked on the failed re-election campaign of Pontiac MP Mathieu Ravignat.
Trudeau copied Wynne’s style and ran a “vigorous, energetic campaign that was able to raise a lot of enthusiasm,” Cullen says.
Sullivan and others began sounding alarms a year ago that Toronto voters really liked Trudeau, Cullen says. Voters saw in him a lot of the same qualities they like in Wynne — some of the same ones they saw in Jack Layton.
“Wynne did have a positive effect,” he says. “I know the Tories did try to turn it around with guilt by association. Well, she did win her provincial election and everybody knew what the warts were. Were they going to discover them again? No.”
The links between Wynne and Trudeau go much deeper than personalities. Many of Trudeau’s senior people have Ontario backgrounds. His outboard brain Gerry Butts cut his teeth with Dalton McGuinty, campaign director Katie Telford with Gerard Kennedy when he was McGuinty’s education minister. Campaign strategist and pollster David Herle captained Wynne’s campaign in 2014. Wynne’s principal secretary Andrew Bevan worked in top jobs for former federal Liberal leaders and knows Trudeau’s brain trust.
It goes on: The campaign’s media wrangler Zita Astravas is a Wynne spokesperson. Trudeau tour director John Zerucelli is a veteran Ontario campaigner who’s normally the chief of staff to deputy premier Deb Matthews. They and others got long leaves from their Ontario jobs to work for Trudeau, giving him seasoned staff for a long-haul campaign.
McKenna particularly praises her provincial counterpart in Ottawa Centre, Wynne minister Yasir Naqvi, as a mentor. He taught her that there’s no substitute for the slogging job of door-knocking and he worked until the last moments on Election Day to get voters to the polls for her, she says.
Dewar won only about 5,000 fewer votes in 2015 than in 2011. But McKenna attracted 20,000 more than her Liberal predecessor, in the riding that set the national high mark for turnout. Trudeau energized voters, to be sure, but the local campaigns worked plenty hard to get them to the polls.
Something similar happened in Orléans, where Liberal Andrew Leslie trounced Conservative Royal Galipeau. Galipeau’s tally fell by just 5,000 but Leslie brought in 22,000 more voters than the Liberal candidate did in 2011.
Cumberland Coun. Stephen Blais, a Liberal activist his whole adult life, credits a lot of recent practice.
“I think Liberals do best when there isn’t a provincial team or a federal team, there’s a Liberal team. In the ridings where those teams are effectively one, that’s where the Liberals do best,” he says.
That’s what happened this time: Local campaign teams from Wynne’s 2014 majority win reassembled to work for federal candidates in the same ridings. Campaign managers, sign crews, volunteer co-ordinators — “the day-to-day ground people were effectively the same people,” Blais says.
Going from campaign to campaign also keeps volunteers involved. If there’s always something to do, you can hang onto “the kids that are going to give you 18 hours a day for a year, when you can keep them sharp and focused and build their skills and keep them in the zone,” Blais says.
Mayor Jim Watson ran for re-election with a full campaign even though he faced scant opposition, which gave Liberal-minded workers even more experience. Internal nomination battles helped in some cases, too.
“You know each other, everybody has their particular skill sets, it helps develop bench stretch, it keeps people engaged, it keeps their skills sharp,” Blais says. Conservative and New Democrats did the same, of course, but many of them in losing causes. That doesn’t create the same vibe.
The importance of having provincial (and other) politicians out doorstepping with candidates, especially new ones, can’t be overstated, Blais says.
“It’s always a double-edged sword. You hope you’re popular if you’re a sitting politician but you don’t necessarily know,” he allows. But most of the time, a politician who’s recently won an election is an asset. “It helps that if it’s a local politician, from that neighbourhood, it brings a sense of credibility.”
Having an experienced politician along boosts a canvassing team and even the candidate. “It puts a little pep in your step because you want to impress the person,” Blais says.
It’s not as though this stuff was unnatural for Trudeau: he’s energetic and peppy and plays well with others. But those qualities served him at exactly the right time, with just the right allies to help him.
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The Tories had worked hard to tie Justin Trudeau to Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne, who went all-in on her support for Trudeau in the last days of the campaign. They succeeded. It just didn’t work out the way they’d planned.
Wynne was fed up with the toxic relationship between her government and the federal Tories, one she saw as having been poisoned by the Conservatives for purely political reasons. She put her provincial organization at the federal Liberals’ disposal early, said she was doing it, urged her MPPs to be a part of it.
The premier herself spent days near the end of the campaign speaking for Liberal candidates hoping to beat New Democrats in Toronto. Meanwhile, the Conservatives ran television ads showing Trudeau and Wynne rallying together, assuming that was damaging.
“I think that she motivated people and gave comfort that we had a great team and would be able to partner at the provincial level,” says Catherine McKenna, the new Liberal MP for Ottawa Centre, who defeated veteran New Democrat Paul Dewar. Animosity between Wynne and Stephen Harper has been a serious problem, she said, and most people don’t see it as having begun at Queen’s Park. “I think the idea that she was willing to work and excited to work with Justin Trudeau as prime minister really was awesome.”
Wynne’s image reinforced Trudeau’s, says Alex Cullen, a one-time Liberal MPP who turned New Democrat years ago. The former city councillor has been a Parliament Hill aide to a Toronto New Democrat MP who’s out of a job, Mike Sullivan, and worked on the failed re-election campaign of Pontiac MP Mathieu Ravignat.
Trudeau copied Wynne’s style and ran a “vigorous, energetic campaign that was able to raise a lot of enthusiasm,” Cullen says.
Sullivan and others began sounding alarms a year ago that Toronto voters really liked Trudeau, Cullen says. Voters saw in him a lot of the same qualities they like in Wynne — some of the same ones they saw in Jack Layton.
“Wynne did have a positive effect,” he says. “I know the Tories did try to turn it around with guilt by association. Well, she did win her provincial election and everybody knew what the warts were. Were they going to discover them again? No.”
The links between Wynne and Trudeau go much deeper than personalities. Many of Trudeau’s senior people have Ontario backgrounds. His outboard brain Gerry Butts cut his teeth with Dalton McGuinty, campaign director Katie Telford with Gerard Kennedy when he was McGuinty’s education minister. Campaign strategist and pollster David Herle captained Wynne’s campaign in 2014. Wynne’s principal secretary Andrew Bevan worked in top jobs for former federal Liberal leaders and knows Trudeau’s brain trust.
It goes on: The campaign’s media wrangler Zita Astravas is a Wynne spokesperson. Trudeau tour director John Zerucelli is a veteran Ontario campaigner who’s normally the chief of staff to deputy premier Deb Matthews. They and others got long leaves from their Ontario jobs to work for Trudeau, giving him seasoned staff for a long-haul campaign.
McKenna particularly praises her provincial counterpart in Ottawa Centre, Wynne minister Yasir Naqvi, as a mentor. He taught her that there’s no substitute for the slogging job of door-knocking and he worked until the last moments on Election Day to get voters to the polls for her, she says.
Dewar won only about 5,000 fewer votes in 2015 than in 2011. But McKenna attracted 20,000 more than her Liberal predecessor, in the riding that set the national high mark for turnout. Trudeau energized voters, to be sure, but the local campaigns worked plenty hard to get them to the polls.
Something similar happened in Orléans, where Liberal Andrew Leslie trounced Conservative Royal Galipeau. Galipeau’s tally fell by just 5,000 but Leslie brought in 22,000 more voters than the Liberal candidate did in 2011.
Cumberland Coun. Stephen Blais, a Liberal activist his whole adult life, credits a lot of recent practice.
“I think Liberals do best when there isn’t a provincial team or a federal team, there’s a Liberal team. In the ridings where those teams are effectively one, that’s where the Liberals do best,” he says.
That’s what happened this time: Local campaign teams from Wynne’s 2014 majority win reassembled to work for federal candidates in the same ridings. Campaign managers, sign crews, volunteer co-ordinators — “the day-to-day ground people were effectively the same people,” Blais says.
Going from campaign to campaign also keeps volunteers involved. If there’s always something to do, you can hang onto “the kids that are going to give you 18 hours a day for a year, when you can keep them sharp and focused and build their skills and keep them in the zone,” Blais says.
Mayor Jim Watson ran for re-election with a full campaign even though he faced scant opposition, which gave Liberal-minded workers even more experience. Internal nomination battles helped in some cases, too.
“You know each other, everybody has their particular skill sets, it helps develop bench stretch, it keeps people engaged, it keeps their skills sharp,” Blais says. Conservative and New Democrats did the same, of course, but many of them in losing causes. That doesn’t create the same vibe.
The importance of having provincial (and other) politicians out doorstepping with candidates, especially new ones, can’t be overstated, Blais says.
“It’s always a double-edged sword. You hope you’re popular if you’re a sitting politician but you don’t necessarily know,” he allows. But most of the time, a politician who’s recently won an election is an asset. “It helps that if it’s a local politician, from that neighbourhood, it brings a sense of credibility.”
Having an experienced politician along boosts a canvassing team and even the candidate. “It puts a little pep in your step because you want to impress the person,” Blais says.
It’s not as though this stuff was unnatural for Trudeau: he’s energetic and peppy and plays well with others. But those qualities served him at exactly the right time, with just the right allies to help him.
Related
查看原文...
