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A plethora of unsold condominiums is cause for concern for the health of Ottawa’s housing market, especially since more units are set to flood the market in coming months, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. warned Thursday.
The federal housing agency said the burgeoning number of condos has pushed Ottawa’s market into a category of “moderate risk” and forced CMHC to raise red flags for builders who may be planning further condominium construction in the capital.
According to Anne-Marie Shaker, Ottawa market analyst at CMHC, more than 589 new condo units are for sale on the market today. That number is equivalent to an eight-month-supply of condominiums.
“We see a lot of oncoming supply and active listings at the moment,” Shaker said at CMHC’s annual Ottawa Housing Market Outlook conference. “Listings continue to go up and sales have plateaued. Condominiums alone are on the edge of being a buyer’s market.”
That’s bad news for existing condo owners because it could bring further price drops in a market that has already seen three years of decreases — 5.6 per cent in 2013, 7.3 per cent in 2014 and one per cent so far this year — even while prices have been rising in the residential, or non-condo category.
The housing agency suggests that builders have misread the market and overbuilt condominium units, but also that first-time buyers, a key market for condominium sales, are increasingly opting to delay their purchases or to buy residential houses.
According to CMHC, the Ottawa market is now being fuelled by repeat buyers who prefer residential properties, and in particular single detached homes. Recent data provided by Statistics Canada shows that first-time home buyers, typically in the 25-through-44 age group, are still struggling to find employment and aren’t as interested in condominiums, especially once maintenance fees are added to the mortgage and carrying costs of the unit, Shaker said.
As a result, people in that demographic are opting to rent, live with their parents longer or look at multiple dwelling units such as townhouses and row homes.
The Ottawa Real Estate Board said on Wednesday that a total of 202 resale condominiums were sold during October, an increase over the 194 that sold in October last year. The average price of $251,177, however, was down 13 per cent from the average condominium price of $290,739 that the average condominium sold for in October 2014. Measured over the first 10 months of 2015, the average price is down only 1.9 per cent to $258,995, according to the real estate board.
Shaker said builders are already scaling back condo construction. In the first nine months of 2014, builders began 1,100 units. During the same period this year, only 700 were completed.
It wasn’t all bad news from CMHC on Thursday. Despite the fact that the average price of a home in Ottawa has continued to march upwards even while average salaries have stalled, people are still buying houses. The average price of a residential property in Ottawa in 2015 is expected to be around $368,000, according to Shaker. She expects that to increase to $376,000 in 2016 and $385,000 in 2017.
The housing analyst said the overall number of new homes built will likely rise slightly in 2016, with row homes and townhouses accounting for most of the increase.
Ottawa’s resale housing market for residential homes is stable and balanced, Shaker said, largely because, on average, resale homes are cheaper to buy. A single detached home on the resale market is $86,029 cheaper than a comparable home bought new, she said.
More than 50 per cent of resale homes listed on the Multiple Listing Service are selling, which is a sign of a balanced and healthy market, Shaker said.
CMHC also warned that interest rates may finally rise in 2017 as the economies of the U.S. and much of Asia pick up steam. Ted Tsiakopoulos, Ontario regional economist for CMHC, said the increased rates, coupled with the province’s sluggish economy, will likely further slow the pace of housing sales. However, Tsiakopoulos said the trend CMHC is now seeing is in renovations to existing homes. Instead of looking for a house to move to, an increasing number of Ontarians are choosing to renovate their existing dwelling.
“Ontario’s economy, while it has regained some of its lost momentum, the economy isn’t growing,” he said. “We are bullish on the renovation and resale markets. Renovation spending has been nothing short of exceptional.”
Provincially, 2015 has been a record year for resale homes, according to Tsiakopoulos.
vpilieci@ottawacitizen.com
查看原文...
The federal housing agency said the burgeoning number of condos has pushed Ottawa’s market into a category of “moderate risk” and forced CMHC to raise red flags for builders who may be planning further condominium construction in the capital.
According to Anne-Marie Shaker, Ottawa market analyst at CMHC, more than 589 new condo units are for sale on the market today. That number is equivalent to an eight-month-supply of condominiums.
“We see a lot of oncoming supply and active listings at the moment,” Shaker said at CMHC’s annual Ottawa Housing Market Outlook conference. “Listings continue to go up and sales have plateaued. Condominiums alone are on the edge of being a buyer’s market.”
That’s bad news for existing condo owners because it could bring further price drops in a market that has already seen three years of decreases — 5.6 per cent in 2013, 7.3 per cent in 2014 and one per cent so far this year — even while prices have been rising in the residential, or non-condo category.
The housing agency suggests that builders have misread the market and overbuilt condominium units, but also that first-time buyers, a key market for condominium sales, are increasingly opting to delay their purchases or to buy residential houses.
According to CMHC, the Ottawa market is now being fuelled by repeat buyers who prefer residential properties, and in particular single detached homes. Recent data provided by Statistics Canada shows that first-time home buyers, typically in the 25-through-44 age group, are still struggling to find employment and aren’t as interested in condominiums, especially once maintenance fees are added to the mortgage and carrying costs of the unit, Shaker said.
As a result, people in that demographic are opting to rent, live with their parents longer or look at multiple dwelling units such as townhouses and row homes.
The Ottawa Real Estate Board said on Wednesday that a total of 202 resale condominiums were sold during October, an increase over the 194 that sold in October last year. The average price of $251,177, however, was down 13 per cent from the average condominium price of $290,739 that the average condominium sold for in October 2014. Measured over the first 10 months of 2015, the average price is down only 1.9 per cent to $258,995, according to the real estate board.
Shaker said builders are already scaling back condo construction. In the first nine months of 2014, builders began 1,100 units. During the same period this year, only 700 were completed.
It wasn’t all bad news from CMHC on Thursday. Despite the fact that the average price of a home in Ottawa has continued to march upwards even while average salaries have stalled, people are still buying houses. The average price of a residential property in Ottawa in 2015 is expected to be around $368,000, according to Shaker. She expects that to increase to $376,000 in 2016 and $385,000 in 2017.
The housing analyst said the overall number of new homes built will likely rise slightly in 2016, with row homes and townhouses accounting for most of the increase.
Ottawa’s resale housing market for residential homes is stable and balanced, Shaker said, largely because, on average, resale homes are cheaper to buy. A single detached home on the resale market is $86,029 cheaper than a comparable home bought new, she said.
More than 50 per cent of resale homes listed on the Multiple Listing Service are selling, which is a sign of a balanced and healthy market, Shaker said.
CMHC also warned that interest rates may finally rise in 2017 as the economies of the U.S. and much of Asia pick up steam. Ted Tsiakopoulos, Ontario regional economist for CMHC, said the increased rates, coupled with the province’s sluggish economy, will likely further slow the pace of housing sales. However, Tsiakopoulos said the trend CMHC is now seeing is in renovations to existing homes. Instead of looking for a house to move to, an increasing number of Ontarians are choosing to renovate their existing dwelling.
“Ontario’s economy, while it has regained some of its lost momentum, the economy isn’t growing,” he said. “We are bullish on the renovation and resale markets. Renovation spending has been nothing short of exceptional.”
Provincially, 2015 has been a record year for resale homes, according to Tsiakopoulos.
vpilieci@ottawacitizen.com
查看原文...
