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Sure, keep the shovel handy, but with any luck you won’t need it for at least a couple of weeks, and maybe longer.
That’s because Environment Canada is forecasting a warmer than normal December — certainly warmer than the past two years — and raising the possibility of a snowless Christmas.
“December is most certainly looking like it’s going to be warmer than normal,” meteorologist Peter Kimbell said Tuesday. “And for sure the next two weeks, no question it’s going to be warmer than normal.”
Of course, warmer winter temperatures have their own woes. As of Tuesday afternoon, the Ottawa area, along with western Quebec, was expected to remain under a freezing rain warning — periods of icy rain mixed changing to rain or drizzle — at least until midnight.
Not surprisingly, such conditions can be hazardous both on the road and on the sidewalk. Ottawa Paramedics reported early Tuesday evening that about half of their emergency calls were for people who’d fallen as a result of that freezing rain.
The hazards should ease with temperatures expected to be well above zero on Wednesday — in the 2 C range — that warning will probably be lifted overnight or first thing Tuesday morning, Kimbell said.
And it looks like things will get even better for the next week or so, weather-wise anyway. Wednesday’s high is forecast at 7 C, along with a 30 per cent chance of showers in the afternoon. Ditto for the weekend, when temperatures are expected to be in the 5 C range — which is five degrees above the norm for this time of year.
Beyond next week, too, the weather is looking to be comparatively balmy, said Kimbell, noting that there is “no big outbreak of cold air in sight” at least until the middle of the month. But then even beyond mid-December there are “indications” temperatures will be warmer than normal.
What about a brown Christmas? The last time that happened was the winter of 2006, when the first significance snowfall came on Christmas Day. “Could we have that again? Yes. It’s possible.”
What about January and February, please? Kimbell wasn’t willing to forecast that far ahead, saying only: “There are suggestions this winter will be milder than the normal, and probably milder than we’ve seen the last couple of years. But sometimes the weather can throw you a curve ball.”
We should be grateful for small mercies. According to Kimbell, one of the numerous factors accounting for the warmer-than-normal temperatures is the so-called El Niño effect whereby a huge reservoir of heat, in the form of warm ocean water, comes our way via the Pacific Ocean.
To qualify as an El Niño, the surface of the Pacific must be more than half a degree above normal. This year, it seems, the ocean’s surface from Alaska to Chile is two to three degrees higher.
This heat energy has to go somewhere, and during an El Niño winter it generally spreads warmth and humidity eastward.
The phenomenon is “definitely present” this year, Kimbell said, noting that temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rival that of 1997-1998, which was “the strongest El Niño on record.”
That tidbit should make Ottawans blanch and shiver. The winter of ’97-’98 saw the Great Ice Storm.
So yes, keep a shovel handy, but you might also want to stock up on woollies, candles, kerosene lamps, wood, food …
查看原文...
That’s because Environment Canada is forecasting a warmer than normal December — certainly warmer than the past two years — and raising the possibility of a snowless Christmas.
“December is most certainly looking like it’s going to be warmer than normal,” meteorologist Peter Kimbell said Tuesday. “And for sure the next two weeks, no question it’s going to be warmer than normal.”
Of course, warmer winter temperatures have their own woes. As of Tuesday afternoon, the Ottawa area, along with western Quebec, was expected to remain under a freezing rain warning — periods of icy rain mixed changing to rain or drizzle — at least until midnight.
Not surprisingly, such conditions can be hazardous both on the road and on the sidewalk. Ottawa Paramedics reported early Tuesday evening that about half of their emergency calls were for people who’d fallen as a result of that freezing rain.
The hazards should ease with temperatures expected to be well above zero on Wednesday — in the 2 C range — that warning will probably be lifted overnight or first thing Tuesday morning, Kimbell said.
And it looks like things will get even better for the next week or so, weather-wise anyway. Wednesday’s high is forecast at 7 C, along with a 30 per cent chance of showers in the afternoon. Ditto for the weekend, when temperatures are expected to be in the 5 C range — which is five degrees above the norm for this time of year.
Beyond next week, too, the weather is looking to be comparatively balmy, said Kimbell, noting that there is “no big outbreak of cold air in sight” at least until the middle of the month. But then even beyond mid-December there are “indications” temperatures will be warmer than normal.
What about a brown Christmas? The last time that happened was the winter of 2006, when the first significance snowfall came on Christmas Day. “Could we have that again? Yes. It’s possible.”
What about January and February, please? Kimbell wasn’t willing to forecast that far ahead, saying only: “There are suggestions this winter will be milder than the normal, and probably milder than we’ve seen the last couple of years. But sometimes the weather can throw you a curve ball.”
We should be grateful for small mercies. According to Kimbell, one of the numerous factors accounting for the warmer-than-normal temperatures is the so-called El Niño effect whereby a huge reservoir of heat, in the form of warm ocean water, comes our way via the Pacific Ocean.
To qualify as an El Niño, the surface of the Pacific must be more than half a degree above normal. This year, it seems, the ocean’s surface from Alaska to Chile is two to three degrees higher.
This heat energy has to go somewhere, and during an El Niño winter it generally spreads warmth and humidity eastward.
The phenomenon is “definitely present” this year, Kimbell said, noting that temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rival that of 1997-1998, which was “the strongest El Niño on record.”
That tidbit should make Ottawans blanch and shiver. The winter of ’97-’98 saw the Great Ice Storm.
So yes, keep a shovel handy, but you might also want to stock up on woollies, candles, kerosene lamps, wood, food …
查看原文...
