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Russia's GDP falls 3.7% as sanctions and low oil price take effect
The steepest decline since 2009 comes as oil prices hover at $30 a barrel and the rouble trades close to a record low against the dollar
President Vladimir Putin … the Russian government is to make cuts to its 2016 budget, which was based on oil prices of $50 a barrel. Photograph: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images
Dan Milmo
Russia’s economy has recorded its steepest decline in gross domestic product since 2009 as the slumping oil price and international sanctions take their toll.
The fall of 3.7% comes as the Brent crude price hovers around $30 (£21) a barrel and the rouble trades near a record low to the dollar. Oil and gas account for around half of Russian state revenues and the government has said it will have to make cuts to the budget for 2016, which was adopted in October and based on an oil price of $50 per barrel.
Other economic indicators published by the state statistics service on Monday showed continuing heavy falls and a deterioration compared with previous months. Retail sales were down more than 15% year-on-year in December, while capital investment fell 8.7% year-on-year.
William Jackson, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said the weak activity data for December was worrying, pointing towards a deterioration towards the end of the quarter.
“The data highlight that, while the worst of Russia’s crisis has now passed, the economy is still extremely weak,” he said. “The latest fall in oil prices and drop in the rouble mean the likelihood of a second consecutive year of recession is rising.”
The International Monetary Fund is forecasting another fall in Russian GDP of 1% in 2016 before a return to 1% growth next year. The rouble weakened slightly to around 79 against the dollar in Monday trading, remaining below the record of almost 86 set last week.
Nevertheless, this recession was smaller than many had feared, and there has been no repeat of the panic of December 2014, when people flocked to buy dollars and euros after the rouble hit 80. Russians are spending less on cars, property and trips abroad, but most are still able to put food on the table.
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“The population got poorer, economic activity declined, but Russia is still a fairly rich country,” said Timur Nigmatullin, an analyst at the Russian investment company Finam. “3.7% is not a critical indicator. The problem will be if this situation continues for several years.”
“Prices are higher, but there’s no reason to scream blue murder or go riot,” a heating and cooling systems salesman who would give his name only as Anton said as he went to the bank on Monday. “Everything will stabilise sooner or later. Oil will always be valuable.”
This month officials have admitted that the fall in oil prices could force a revision of the 2016 budget, which Vladimir Putin said in December had been calculated based on oil prices around $50 a barrel. Under pressure to take steps, the government is expected to announce anti-crisis measures this week.
On Monday, finance minister Alexei Ulyukayev predicted the average annual oil price would be above $30 a barrel in 2016, but not everyone shares this optimism. Ulyukayev’s predictions have often been ridiculed as naive on the internet in Russia in recent months. Former finance minister Alexei Kudrin said last week in Davos that oil prices could go as low as $16 a barrel, although he predicted the Russian economy would return to growth in one or two years.
The economic recession has hit consumers the hardest, and 2.3 million Russians fell into poverty in the first nine months of 2015. Inflation reached 12.9% last year, driving a 9.5% decline in real wages. As a result, retail sales shrank by about the same amount, and sectors including automobile sales and construction suffered large contractions. Many are foregoing luxuries like a new car or winter getaway. According to the state statistics service, the number of trips abroad by Russians decreased by 31.4% in the first nine months of 2015.
But the fallout wasn’t as bad as it could have been, as western sanctions against Russia and the weak rouble had shifted demand toward domestic products, said Chris Weafer of the Moscow consultancy Macro Advisory. Because Russia’s population is aging, unemployment remains low at 5.8%.
“The recession so far has led to an increase in grumbling rather than in protest. People can’t afford luxury items, but they can afford the basics,” he said.
The steepest decline since 2009 comes as oil prices hover at $30 a barrel and the rouble trades close to a record low against the dollar
President Vladimir Putin … the Russian government is to make cuts to its 2016 budget, which was based on oil prices of $50 a barrel. Photograph: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images
Dan Milmo
Russia’s economy has recorded its steepest decline in gross domestic product since 2009 as the slumping oil price and international sanctions take their toll.
The fall of 3.7% comes as the Brent crude price hovers around $30 (£21) a barrel and the rouble trades near a record low to the dollar. Oil and gas account for around half of Russian state revenues and the government has said it will have to make cuts to the budget for 2016, which was adopted in October and based on an oil price of $50 per barrel.
Other economic indicators published by the state statistics service on Monday showed continuing heavy falls and a deterioration compared with previous months. Retail sales were down more than 15% year-on-year in December, while capital investment fell 8.7% year-on-year.
William Jackson, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said the weak activity data for December was worrying, pointing towards a deterioration towards the end of the quarter.
“The data highlight that, while the worst of Russia’s crisis has now passed, the economy is still extremely weak,” he said. “The latest fall in oil prices and drop in the rouble mean the likelihood of a second consecutive year of recession is rising.”
The International Monetary Fund is forecasting another fall in Russian GDP of 1% in 2016 before a return to 1% growth next year. The rouble weakened slightly to around 79 against the dollar in Monday trading, remaining below the record of almost 86 set last week.
Nevertheless, this recession was smaller than many had feared, and there has been no repeat of the panic of December 2014, when people flocked to buy dollars and euros after the rouble hit 80. Russians are spending less on cars, property and trips abroad, but most are still able to put food on the table.
Advertisement
“The population got poorer, economic activity declined, but Russia is still a fairly rich country,” said Timur Nigmatullin, an analyst at the Russian investment company Finam. “3.7% is not a critical indicator. The problem will be if this situation continues for several years.”
“Prices are higher, but there’s no reason to scream blue murder or go riot,” a heating and cooling systems salesman who would give his name only as Anton said as he went to the bank on Monday. “Everything will stabilise sooner or later. Oil will always be valuable.”
This month officials have admitted that the fall in oil prices could force a revision of the 2016 budget, which Vladimir Putin said in December had been calculated based on oil prices around $50 a barrel. Under pressure to take steps, the government is expected to announce anti-crisis measures this week.
On Monday, finance minister Alexei Ulyukayev predicted the average annual oil price would be above $30 a barrel in 2016, but not everyone shares this optimism. Ulyukayev’s predictions have often been ridiculed as naive on the internet in Russia in recent months. Former finance minister Alexei Kudrin said last week in Davos that oil prices could go as low as $16 a barrel, although he predicted the Russian economy would return to growth in one or two years.
The economic recession has hit consumers the hardest, and 2.3 million Russians fell into poverty in the first nine months of 2015. Inflation reached 12.9% last year, driving a 9.5% decline in real wages. As a result, retail sales shrank by about the same amount, and sectors including automobile sales and construction suffered large contractions. Many are foregoing luxuries like a new car or winter getaway. According to the state statistics service, the number of trips abroad by Russians decreased by 31.4% in the first nine months of 2015.
But the fallout wasn’t as bad as it could have been, as western sanctions against Russia and the weak rouble had shifted demand toward domestic products, said Chris Weafer of the Moscow consultancy Macro Advisory. Because Russia’s population is aging, unemployment remains low at 5.8%.
“The recession so far has led to an increase in grumbling rather than in protest. People can’t afford luxury items, but they can afford the basics,” he said.
