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Canada’s housing market watchdog sounded alarm bells about the price of housing in several markets across the country Wednesday, claiming that overvaluation and overbuilding in markets like Toronto and Vancouver are finally showing cause for concern.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said in its national housing market assessment that soaring housing prices coupled with stagnant wages and sluggish population growth is pushing many markets across the country into a category of “strong” risk, up from “moderate” just a few months ago.
“We now see strong evidence of problematic conditions overall nationally,” said Bob Dugan, chief economist at CMHC. “This is fuelled by overvaluation — meaning house prices remain higher than the level of personal disposable income, population growth and other fundamentals would support. This overvaluation coupled with evidence of overbuilding in some centres means that growth in house prices will slow and housing starts are expected to moderate in 2017 and 2018.”
The housing agency had warned earlier this month that it would raise its risk rating to strong for the first time ever when it releases its next housing market assessment.
CMHC stopped short of pressing the panic button on the nation’s housing market, saying in many markets the pace of housing sales is now showing good signs of moderating and prices are beginning to stabilize.
New measures by the federal government, introduced earlier this month, to better screen high-ratio mortgage applicants should also help to slow the pace of new home sales.
To conduct it’s housing market assessment, CMHC follows home prices, construction trends, employment and salary information in 15 municipalities across the country.
Residents of the nation’s capital were spared from the doom and gloom outlook affecting much of the rest of the country, as stable housing prices and the moderate construction pace locally have helped Ottawa’s housing market to stay well within acceptable levels.
“We detect weak evidence of overheating in the existing home market in Ottawa,” said Anne-Marie Shaker, senior market analyst with CMHC, adding that even in the new home construction market, Ottawa seems relatively tame when compared to other parts of the country. “We detect moderate evidence of overbuilding in Ottawa due to a high inventory of completed and unsold condo units relative to the population.”
Shaker said a boom in condominium construction in 2012 and 2013 flooded the market with condominiums in 2014 and 2015. Those units were not bought as quickly as the builders had hoped and forced a glut of unsold units that hit an all time high in February and is just now starting to clear.
“The number of unsold units has come down August, as improved employment conditions … supported demand in the resale and new home market,” Shaker said. “However, inventory management continues to be necessary until the high number of completed and unsold units are absorbed by the market.”
According to the Ottawa Real Estate Board, 2,288 condominiums were sold in the first nine months of 2016, a 7.4-per-cent increase over the 2,131 sold during the same time frame last year. While the number of condos increased, prices appear to have stabilized. The average selling price of a condominium sold between January and the end of September was $260,218. In the same period in 2015 the average price of a condominium was $260,064.
On the residential home side, prices also appear to have stabilized. The board said while home sale numbers were booming in Ottawa this year —10,335 homes were sold in the first nine months 2016, up 6.8 per cent from the same period last year — price increases were flat.
The average selling price of a residential home was $396,404 during that period, up only 0.6 per cent increase from the same period last year.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said in its national housing market assessment that soaring housing prices coupled with stagnant wages and sluggish population growth is pushing many markets across the country into a category of “strong” risk, up from “moderate” just a few months ago.
“We now see strong evidence of problematic conditions overall nationally,” said Bob Dugan, chief economist at CMHC. “This is fuelled by overvaluation — meaning house prices remain higher than the level of personal disposable income, population growth and other fundamentals would support. This overvaluation coupled with evidence of overbuilding in some centres means that growth in house prices will slow and housing starts are expected to moderate in 2017 and 2018.”
The housing agency had warned earlier this month that it would raise its risk rating to strong for the first time ever when it releases its next housing market assessment.
CMHC stopped short of pressing the panic button on the nation’s housing market, saying in many markets the pace of housing sales is now showing good signs of moderating and prices are beginning to stabilize.
New measures by the federal government, introduced earlier this month, to better screen high-ratio mortgage applicants should also help to slow the pace of new home sales.
To conduct it’s housing market assessment, CMHC follows home prices, construction trends, employment and salary information in 15 municipalities across the country.
Residents of the nation’s capital were spared from the doom and gloom outlook affecting much of the rest of the country, as stable housing prices and the moderate construction pace locally have helped Ottawa’s housing market to stay well within acceptable levels.
“We detect weak evidence of overheating in the existing home market in Ottawa,” said Anne-Marie Shaker, senior market analyst with CMHC, adding that even in the new home construction market, Ottawa seems relatively tame when compared to other parts of the country. “We detect moderate evidence of overbuilding in Ottawa due to a high inventory of completed and unsold condo units relative to the population.”
Shaker said a boom in condominium construction in 2012 and 2013 flooded the market with condominiums in 2014 and 2015. Those units were not bought as quickly as the builders had hoped and forced a glut of unsold units that hit an all time high in February and is just now starting to clear.
“The number of unsold units has come down August, as improved employment conditions … supported demand in the resale and new home market,” Shaker said. “However, inventory management continues to be necessary until the high number of completed and unsold units are absorbed by the market.”
According to the Ottawa Real Estate Board, 2,288 condominiums were sold in the first nine months of 2016, a 7.4-per-cent increase over the 2,131 sold during the same time frame last year. While the number of condos increased, prices appear to have stabilized. The average selling price of a condominium sold between January and the end of September was $260,218. In the same period in 2015 the average price of a condominium was $260,064.
On the residential home side, prices also appear to have stabilized. The board said while home sale numbers were booming in Ottawa this year —10,335 homes were sold in the first nine months 2016, up 6.8 per cent from the same period last year — price increases were flat.
The average selling price of a residential home was $396,404 during that period, up only 0.6 per cent increase from the same period last year.
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