In a market of extremes, Ottawa housing is normal

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As if we needed reminding, the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association – published Monday – made it clear that location really matters when it comes to putting a price on a home in Canada.

In the five major cities, the price of a single-family home in December ranged from $328,200 in Montreal to $1.5 million in greater Vancouver while condo values were as low as $219,000 in Ottawa and as high as $661,800 in, you guessed it, Vancouver.

The remarkable part is that prices increased fastest in the markets that were already the most expensive. Single-family homes in greater Toronto surged 23 per cent in value year over year to $830,600 in December. Prices were up 18.6 per cent in greater Vancouver.

Prices for condominiums in the two large cities jumped 20 per cent year over year while gains for this class of property were less than 5 per cent in Ottawa and Montreal and actually shrank in recession-plagued Calgary.

The benchmark price for single family homes in Ottawa was $373,200 in December, up 5.0 per cent from a year earlier according to CREA.

That’s considerably below the 15.1 per cent gain recorded nationally by CREA, which estimated the benchmark price for single-family homes at $676,300 in December.

The benchmark price, developed monthly by the Ottawa Real Estate Board and other regional real estate agencies, differs from average and median prices in that it tracks housing characteristics such as age of property, number of bathrooms and type of roof. This permits a more consistent view of underlying trends in the housing market.

The price gains reflect in part a rather surprising year-over-year drop in the number of new listings, signifying a tightening of the real estate market across most of the country.

In Ottawa there were 918 new listings in December for all types of property – a decline of nearly 16 per cent from a year earlier. That was in line with the 14 per cent drop nationally which was heavily influenced by dramatic declines of 33.5 per cent and 32 per cent in greater Vancouver and Calgary respectively.

In greater Toronto, the number of listings shrank 12.4 per cent over the same period.

This means the trends continue to benefit sellers in many markets because there are fewer properties available for buyers. This can be seen clearly in the sales-to-new-listings metric used by CREA. When the number of home sales exceeds 60 per cent of new listings, CREA considers this to be a seller’s market. Anything below 40 per cent, and buyers enjoy the advantage.

The ratio for Ottawa in December was 51.8 – suggesting the real estate market is roughly in balance. A year earlier it was 44.9 per cent, so it’s tightening a bit.

But in greater Toronto, the ratio jumped from 63.1 in December 2015 to 73.4 last month. In greater Vancouver, the number of homes sales was 67.4 per cent of new listings – down from 71.4 a year earlier but still a sellers’ market.

The best market for home sellers last month was Victoria, with a ratio of 80.2 per cent. The most favourable city for people looking for a home was Saskatoon, at 36 per cent.

CREA also provided data for average home prices. In Ottawa, properties of all types sold for an average of $376,100 in December – up 7.1 per cent year over year. This put the national capital exactly in the middle of 20 markets surveyed by CREA and the local real estate boards. Topping the list was the Niagara Region – where the average home price soared 25.3 per cent in December year over year to $339,000. Housing values just outside greater Toronto have been jumping as properties inside the city have moved out of reach for many would-be buyers of homes.

Victoria’s housing market posted the largest year over year decline in average home prices. In December, these were $597,400 – off 4.7 per cent. Home prices in greater Vancouver and Edmonton also slipped more than 3 per cent over the same period. In Vancouver’s case, this was from a lofty height: the average price in December was $944,000 – a figure that included data for townhouses and apartments.



How Housing changed in 2016:

City Single-family homes Benchmark price

Toronto 23.0%* $830,600

Vancouver 18.6% $1,484,800

Ottawa 5.0% $373,200

Montreal 3.5% $328,200

Calgary -2.9% $479,500





City Condominiums Benchmark price

Toronto 20.4% $481,600

Vancouver 20.4% $661,800

Montreal 4.1% $325,700

Ottawa 1.7% $219,000

Calgary -5.4% $307,100



*Change in price Dec. 2016 vs Dec. 2015

Source: Canadian Real Estate Association

Email: jbagnall@postmedia.com

Twitter.com/JamesBagnall1

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