Doug Ford来了!

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Thomas Jefferson on Politics & Government
51. Freedom of the Press
A press that is free to investigate and criticize the government is absolutely essential in a nation that practices self-government and is therefore dependent on an educated and enlightened citizenry. On the other hand, newspapers too often take advantage of their freedom and publish lies and scurrilous gossip that could only deceive and mislead the people. Jefferson himself suffered greatly under the latter kind of press during his presidency. But he was a great believer in the ultimate triumph of truth in the free marketplace of ideas, and looked to that for his final vindication.

"The basis of our governments being the opinion of the people, the very first object should be to keep that right; and were it left to me to decide whether we should have a government without newspapers or newspapers without a government, I should not hesitate a moment to prefer the latter. But I should mean that every man should receive those papers and be capable of reading them." --Thomas Jefferson to Edward Carrington, 1787. ME 6:57

"The press [is] the only tocsin of a nation. [When it] is completely silenced... all means of a general effort [are] taken away." --Thomas Jefferson to Thomas Cooper, Nov 29, 1802. (*) ME 10:341

"The only security of all is in a free press. The force of public opinion cannot be resisted when permitted freely to be expressed. The agitation it produces must be submitted to. It is necessary, to keep the waters pure." --Thomas Jefferson to Lafayette, 1823. ME 15:491

"The functionaries of every government have propensities to command at will the liberty and property of their constituents. There is no safe deposit for these but with the people themselves, nor can they be safe with them without information. Where the press is free, and every man able to read, all is safe." --Thomas Jefferson to Charles Yancey, 1816. ME 14:384

"The most effectual engines for [pacifying a nation] are the public papers... [A despotic] government always [keeps] a kind of standing army of newswriters who, without any regard to truth or to what should be like truth, [invent] and put into the papers whatever might serve the ministers. This suffices with the mass of the people who have no means of distinguishing the false from the true paragraphs of a newspaper." --Thomas Jefferson to G. K. van Hogendorp, Oct. 13, 1785. (*) ME 5:181, Papers 8:632

"Our liberty cannot be guarded but by the freedom of the press, nor that be limited without danger of losing it." --Thomas Jefferson to John Jay, 1786.

"I am... for freedom of the press, and against all violations of the Constitution to silence by force and not by reason the complaints or criticisms, just or unjust, of our citizens against the conduct of their agents." --Thomas Jefferson to Elbridge Gerry, 1799. ME 10:78

"The art of printing secures us against the retrogradation of reason and information." --Thomas Jefferson to Pierre Paganel, 1811. ME 13:37

"The light which has been shed on mankind by the art of printing has eminently changed the condition of the world... And while printing is preserved, it can no more recede than the sun return on his course." --Thomas Jefferson to John Adams, 1823. ME 15:465

"The art of printing alone and the vast dissemination of books will maintain the mind where it is and raise the conquering ruffians to the level of the conquered instead of degrading these to that of their conquerors." --Thomas Jefferson to John Adams, 1821. ME 15:334

"[The] literati [of Europe are] half a dozen years before us. Books, really good, acquire just reputation in that time, and so become known to us and communicate to us all their advances in knowledge. Is not this delay compensated by our being placed out of the reach of that swarm of nonsensical publications which issues daily from a thousand presses and perishes almost in issuing?" --Thomas Jefferson to Charles Bellini, 1785. ME 5:153, Papers 8:569

"I cannot live without books." --Thomas Jefferson to John Adams, 1815. ME 14:301

"To preserve the freedom of the human mind... and freedom of the press, every spirit should be ready to devote itself to martyrdom; for as long as we may think as we will and speak as we think, the condition of man will proceed in improvement." Thomas Jefferson to William Green Munford, 1799.

"No experiment can be more interesting than that we are now trying, and which we trust will end in establishing the fact, that man may be governed by reason and truth. Our first object should therefore be, to leave open to him all the avenues to truth. The most effectual hitherto found, is the freedom of the press. It is, therefore, the first shut up by those who fear the investigation of their actions." --Thomas Jefferson to John Tyler, 1804. ME 11:33

"Weighing all probabilities of expense as well as of income, there is reasonable ground of confidence that we may now safely dispense with... the postage on newspapers... to facilitate the progress of information." --Thomas Jefferson: 1st Annual Message, 1801. ME 3:331

 

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[GuardianAngel]

浏览附件749659

浏览附件749660
浏览附件749661
浏览附件749662
浏览附件749663

Agree with the opinion of the author.
A bad tradition.

 

[Teddy]

doug Ford 咋从 radio host 一下当pc 头了？！看来从政很容易啊！在CFC上待过几年的都行吧！

 

[A Special Day]

西方从政并不需要多高门槛，更不需要从基层一步一步干起。

 

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Ontario Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford is ahead in the polls. Can he hold on to that lead through to the June 7 provincial election? (Chris Young/Canadian Press)

If the election were being held today, Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives very likely would form the next government of Ontario.

But the election will not be held today. It'll happen on June 7 — and between now and then, the Ontario Poll Tracker will follow the trends in public opinion as voters in Ontario decide who they will place at the helm of the country's most populous province.

The new Ontario Poll Tracker is an aggregation of all publicly released polls — an average that is weighted by a poll's date (newer ones are given more weight) and sample size (bigger ones are given more weight), and by the pollster's track record (better ones are given more weight).

Aggregating polls has the benefit of following the overall trend rather than focusing on the differences between one poll and the next — differences that often can be chalked up to methodology and margins of error, rather than any specific event in a campaign or an actual shift in public opinion.

But when many polls are saying the same thing, it makes it easier to discern the overall trend. And currently, that trend appears to be in the PCs' favour.

According to the Poll Tracker, the Ontario PCs currently stand at 42.1 per cent support, putting them well ahead of their rivals. Kathleen Wynne's Liberals trail with 27.2 per cent, followed by the New Democrats at 23.4 per cent and the Greens at 5.7 per cent.




The Tories have been leading in the polls since early 2015. They have been given the edge in 18 consecutive surveys and in 47 of the last 49 polls published in the province.

The only survey conducted since the release of Finance Minister Charles Sousa's budget, however, suggests that the PCs' advantage may have slipped a bit. The poll by Forum Research gave the Tories 36 per cent support, with the Liberals at 29 per cent and the NDP at 26 per cent.

That represented an eight-point drop for the PCs from Forum's pre-budget polling and a gain of six points for the Liberals. This was an especially notable result from a polling firm that consistently has shown higher results for the Tories than other pollsters — but the sample of decided voters was relatively small, giving the survey a wider margin of error and reducing the significance of that shift in voting intentions.

Nevertheless, it is still a PC lead that would result in the Tories winning the most seats. Deciding whether the PCs are headed for a majority result based on Forum's numbers alone is basically a coin toss at this point.

PCs in a majority position
But the Poll Tracker uses the polling aggregate to make seat estimates — a necessity when the number of seats each party can win usually does not reflect their share of support among the population.

The Liberals won 54 per cent of the seats up for grabs in 2014 — a majority government — with just under 39 per cent of the vote. In 1985, the PCs won more seats than the Liberals despite winning a smaller share of the popular vote. In 1975, the New Democrats finished second in seats but third in popular support.

Seat projections are an inexact science, however. Human behaviour is not entirely predictable, and how votes will be distributed from one riding to the next can be difficult to determine using smaller-sample regional breakdowns of province-wide polls.

But, taking into account their limitations, seat projections can offer a clue to how poll results translate into seats. That, in the end, is what decides elections.

The PCs' support suggests they would be in a strong position to secure a majority government if an election were held today.

The PCs are currently projected to win 84 seats, well above the 63-seat majority threshold. Andrea Horwath's NDP is projected to win 21 seats, just edging out the Liberals' 19.

According to current projections, it is a virtual coin flip whether Ontario Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne or Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath would win more seats in an election held today. (CBC File)

This is thanks to the PCs' double-digit leads in eastern and southwestern Ontario, and in the GTA-Hamilton-Niagara region. The New Democrats squeeze out the Liberals in seats due to their second-place showings in the north and southwest. The Liberals hold a narrow lead only in Toronto.

But the seat ranges for the three parties are wide, indicating how many seats are currently in play as well as the uncertainty involved in making these sorts of projections.

Majority, minority? And Liberals third?
The PCs are projected to have enough support to win between 60 and 97 seats — that lower number putting them just below the majority threshold. The Poll Tracker estimates that there is only a five per cent chance that the PCs would win a plurality of seats — but not a majority — at their current levels of support. Their chances of winning a majority are far greater, at 90 per cent.

Though the Liberals are projected to finish third in the seat count, they overlap a great deal with the NDP. The Liberals could win between two and 42 seats, with the NDP winning between 15 and 33. The Liberals have a higher ceiling and a lower floor because the New Democrats are in play in fewer seats. The NDP has fewer seats it is at risk of losing, but also fewer seats it is capable of flipping over to its side.




The NDP's advantage over the Liberals is small — only 52 per cent of the time would they win more seats than the Liberals with these levels of support. But the Liberals' higher ceiling also gives them a better chance of beating the PCs. In just under five per cent of simulations, the Liberals would squeak by with the most seats; only very rarely do the New Democrats manage the feat.

That is where the odds stand today. The PCs are in a commanding position, though the most recent poll suggests that position could be vulnerable. The Liberals have more upside than the New Democrats, but more downside as well.

At this stage, Wynne's Liberals are more likely to finish first than the NDP. But they are also more likely to finish third.

 

[GuardianAngel]

浏览附件749754

Ontario Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford is ahead in the polls. Can he hold on to that lead through to the June 7 provincial election? (Chris Young/Canadian Press)

If the election were being held today, Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives very likely would form the next government of Ontario.

But the election will not be held today. It'll happen on June 7 — and between now and then, the Ontario Poll Tracker will follow the trends in public opinion as voters in Ontario decide who they will place at the helm of the country's most populous province.

The new Ontario Poll Tracker is an aggregation of all publicly released polls — an average that is weighted by a poll's date (newer ones are given more weight) and sample size (bigger ones are given more weight), and by the pollster's track record (better ones are given more weight).

Aggregating polls has the benefit of following the overall trend rather than focusing on the differences between one poll and the next — differences that often can be chalked up to methodology and margins of error, rather than any specific event in a campaign or an actual shift in public opinion.

But when many polls are saying the same thing, it makes it easier to discern the overall trend. And currently, that trend appears to be in the PCs' favour.

According to the Poll Tracker, the Ontario PCs currently stand at 42.1 per cent support, putting them well ahead of their rivals. Kathleen Wynne's Liberals trail with 27.2 per cent, followed by the New Democrats at 23.4 per cent and the Greens at 5.7 per cent.




The Tories have been leading in the polls since early 2015. They have been given the edge in 18 consecutive surveys and in 47 of the last 49 polls published in the province.

The only survey conducted since the release of Finance Minister Charles Sousa's budget, however, suggests that the PCs' advantage may have slipped a bit. The poll by Forum Research gave the Tories 36 per cent support, with the Liberals at 29 per cent and the NDP at 26 per cent.

That represented an eight-point drop for the PCs from Forum's pre-budget polling and a gain of six points for the Liberals. This was an especially notable result from a polling firm that consistently has shown higher results for the Tories than other pollsters — but the sample of decided voters was relatively small, giving the survey a wider margin of error and reducing the significance of that shift in voting intentions.

Nevertheless, it is still a PC lead that would result in the Tories winning the most seats. Deciding whether the PCs are headed for a majority result based on Forum's numbers alone is basically a coin toss at this point.

PCs in a majority position
But the Poll Tracker uses the polling aggregate to make seat estimates — a necessity when the number of seats each party can win usually does not reflect their share of support among the population.

The Liberals won 54 per cent of the seats up for grabs in 2014 — a majority government — with just under 39 per cent of the vote. In 1985, the PCs won more seats than the Liberals despite winning a smaller share of the popular vote. In 1975, the New Democrats finished second in seats but third in popular support.

Seat projections are an inexact science, however. Human behaviour is not entirely predictable, and how votes will be distributed from one riding to the next can be difficult to determine using smaller-sample regional breakdowns of province-wide polls.

But, taking into account their limitations, seat projections can offer a clue to how poll results translate into seats. That, in the end, is what decides elections.

The PCs' support suggests they would be in a strong position to secure a majority government if an election were held today.

The PCs are currently projected to win 84 seats, well above the 63-seat majority threshold. Andrea Horwath's NDP is projected to win 21 seats, just edging out the Liberals' 19.

According to current projections, it is a virtual coin flip whether Ontario Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne or Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath would win more seats in an election held today. (CBC File)

This is thanks to the PCs' double-digit leads in eastern and southwestern Ontario, and in the GTA-Hamilton-Niagara region. The New Democrats squeeze out the Liberals in seats due to their second-place showings in the north and southwest. The Liberals hold a narrow lead only in Toronto.

But the seat ranges for the three parties are wide, indicating how many seats are currently in play as well as the uncertainty involved in making these sorts of projections.

Majority, minority? And Liberals third?
The PCs are projected to have enough support to win between 60 and 97 seats — that lower number putting them just below the majority threshold. The Poll Tracker estimates that there is only a five per cent chance that the PCs would win a plurality of seats — but not a majority — at their current levels of support. Their chances of winning a majority are far greater, at 90 per cent.

Though the Liberals are projected to finish third in the seat count, they overlap a great deal with the NDP. The Liberals could win between two and 42 seats, with the NDP winning between 15 and 33. The Liberals have a higher ceiling and a lower floor because the New Democrats are in play in fewer seats. The NDP has fewer seats it is at risk of losing, but also fewer seats it is capable of flipping over to its side.




The NDP's advantage over the Liberals is small — only 52 per cent of the time would they win more seats than the Liberals with these levels of support. But the Liberals' higher ceiling also gives them a better chance of beating the PCs. In just under five per cent of simulations, the Liberals would squeak by with the most seats; only very rarely do the New Democrats manage the feat.

That is where the odds stand today. The PCs are in a commanding position, though the most recent poll suggests that position could be vulnerable. The Liberals have more upside than the New Democrats, but more downside as well.

At this stage, Wynne's Liberals are more likely to finish first than the NDP. But they are also more likely to finish third.

大势所趋，看来。连CBC都这么说了！

 

[ccc]

大势所趋，看来。连CBC都这么说了！

呵呵，字里行间仔细读读，你就不那么过于乐观了。

把屁股移动到中间位置，可能感觉就不同了。别忘记，这文字是针对选民的。

 

[GuardianAngel]

呵呵，字里行间仔细读读，你就不那么过于乐观了。

把屁股移动到中间位置，可能感觉就不同了。别忘记，这文字是针对选民的。

移动到中间位置? Why bother?
Ontario needs a change badly.

Wyne has not done a single good thing since she got the rein. Anyone from the PC camp could not do worse than her. No brainer for me. Hopefully, majority of the voters share the same view.

 

[GuardianAngel]

呵呵，字里行间仔细读读，你就不那么过于乐观了。

把屁股移动到中间位置，可能感觉就不同了。别忘记，这文字是针对选民的。

Btw. 我的大势所趋，指的是你转的那篇文章的内容，关于campain bus。 I think the journalist following campain bus idea is out of date now. Too high a cost. Unnecessary.

I don't mean CBC is endorsing Ford. We both know CBC only supports liberal.