六月份的安省大选有戏看了
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NDP tied with PCs as Ford’s Tories tumble in Ontario election: Ipsos poll
By Katie Dangerfield National Online Journalist, Breaking News Global News
PC Leader Doug Ford, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne are shown in a combination photo.
The Canadian Press
The Ontario election race is heating up as a new poll shows the New Democrats gaining momentum and Progressive Conservatives losing ground.
If the election were held tomorrow, 37 per cent of decided voters in Ontario would vote NDP, up two points since last week, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News. Thirty-six per cent would vote for the PCs, which is down four points since last week.
“This [trend] has been happening for the last few weeks; the last poll showed NDP picking up and it continues to surge across the province,” pollster Darrel Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, explained. “It seems like the Conservatives reached a peak.”
He added that the Liberals continue to see trouble in the polls.
The new poll showed Liberals are still holding relatively steady in the race, with 23 per cent of the popular vote. Meanwhile, four per cent of the respondents said they would vote for another party, like the Green Party. Nearly two in 10 were unsure.
Which Ontario election candidate do you trust the most?
The poll suggested that Doug Ford’s “Tory tumble” was largely due to eroding support in the 905-region of Toronto. Typically those with this area code live in some of Toronto’s populous suburbs, including Mississauga, Vaughan, Newmarket, Richmond Hill and Durham.
“Conservatives usually tend to be strong in 905 area, and it disappeared in this poll,” Bricker said. The collapse of Liberal party support in the area is probably the reason why NDP are gaining ground in the area, he added.
According to the Ipsos poll:
The poll also said the link between demographics and vote preference is “very clear in this election.” For example, men favour the Tories (42 per cent), while women strongly prefer the NDP (40 per cent).
Bricker said women tend to lean towards the NDP because Doug Ford is not appealing to this demographic.
While more than two weeks remain before the June 7 vote, four in 10 of Ontario respondents believe that NDP leader Andrea Horwath is gaining the most popularity and momentum in this election.
Despite the fact that the NDP continues to gain while the PCs have witnessed their first measurable stumble in the horserace, a majority (55 per cent) of Ontarians still believe the Tories will win the election, while two in 10 believe the Liberals or the NDP will win.
Most NDP voters also don’t think the party will actually win, according to the poll. Among NDP voters, 48 per cent think the Tories will win, while 38 per cent think the NDP will take the election.
However, a big question remains: can any of the parties can get voters to turn up on election day?
“We know that certain groups have a stronger tendency to participate [on election day] and those people tend to be conservative,” Bricker said.
“The people who are less sure of their choice and less likely to participate are voting for the NDP. So can Andrea Horwath galvanize the support she has? A low turn out in the election will be an advantage for the Conservatives,” he added.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between May 18 to 21, 2018, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Ontarians eligible to vote and aged 18+ from Ipsos’ online panel was interviewed online, supplemented by river-based sampling. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarian adults been polled.
By Katie Dangerfield National Online Journalist, Breaking News Global News
PC Leader Doug Ford, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne are shown in a combination photo.
The Canadian Press
The Ontario election race is heating up as a new poll shows the New Democrats gaining momentum and Progressive Conservatives losing ground.
If the election were held tomorrow, 37 per cent of decided voters in Ontario would vote NDP, up two points since last week, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News. Thirty-six per cent would vote for the PCs, which is down four points since last week.
“This [trend] has been happening for the last few weeks; the last poll showed NDP picking up and it continues to surge across the province,” pollster Darrel Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, explained. “It seems like the Conservatives reached a peak.”
He added that the Liberals continue to see trouble in the polls.
The new poll showed Liberals are still holding relatively steady in the race, with 23 per cent of the popular vote. Meanwhile, four per cent of the respondents said they would vote for another party, like the Green Party. Nearly two in 10 were unsure.
Which Ontario election candidate do you trust the most?
The poll suggested that Doug Ford’s “Tory tumble” was largely due to eroding support in the 905-region of Toronto. Typically those with this area code live in some of Toronto’s populous suburbs, including Mississauga, Vaughan, Newmarket, Richmond Hill and Durham.
“Conservatives usually tend to be strong in 905 area, and it disappeared in this poll,” Bricker said. The collapse of Liberal party support in the area is probably the reason why NDP are gaining ground in the area, he added.
According to the Ipsos poll:
The poll also said the link between demographics and vote preference is “very clear in this election.” For example, men favour the Tories (42 per cent), while women strongly prefer the NDP (40 per cent).
Bricker said women tend to lean towards the NDP because Doug Ford is not appealing to this demographic.
While more than two weeks remain before the June 7 vote, four in 10 of Ontario respondents believe that NDP leader Andrea Horwath is gaining the most popularity and momentum in this election.
Despite the fact that the NDP continues to gain while the PCs have witnessed their first measurable stumble in the horserace, a majority (55 per cent) of Ontarians still believe the Tories will win the election, while two in 10 believe the Liberals or the NDP will win.
Most NDP voters also don’t think the party will actually win, according to the poll. Among NDP voters, 48 per cent think the Tories will win, while 38 per cent think the NDP will take the election.
However, a big question remains: can any of the parties can get voters to turn up on election day?
“We know that certain groups have a stronger tendency to participate [on election day] and those people tend to be conservative,” Bricker said.
“The people who are less sure of their choice and less likely to participate are voting for the NDP. So can Andrea Horwath galvanize the support she has? A low turn out in the election will be an advantage for the Conservatives,” he added.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between May 18 to 21, 2018, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Ontarians eligible to vote and aged 18+ from Ipsos’ online panel was interviewed online, supplemented by river-based sampling. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarian adults been polled.
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Horwath doubles down — and says a new premier is coming
The long weekend has wrapped, which means campaigning will ramp up as we almost hit the halfway mark of this election campaign. Here's where we are on day 14.
Plus NDP gains in poll tracker and why regional polling isn't always reliable
CBC News · Posted: May 22, 2018 12:01 PM ET | Last Updated: an hour ago
PC Leader Doug Ford and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath campaign over the long weekend. (Frank Gunn/Patrick Doyle/Canadian Press)
The long weekend has wrapped, which means campaigning will ramp up as we almost hit the halfway mark of this election campaign. All the leaders are in and around the Toronto area — we're tracking all the places they've gone here.
Here's what you need to know on day 14:
Latest from the campaign
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath talks with apprentices and journeymen at the Ironworkers local 721 office in Toronto during a campaign stop on Tuesday. (Nathan Denette/Canadian Press)
"June 7, there will be a new premier in the premier's chair."
That's the new line from NDP Leader Andrea Horwath this week as polls show her pulling away from the Liberals and edging closer to the front-running PCs. She first used it Monday at a rally in Brampton.
On Tuesday, she once again dismissed Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne's chances at re-election, telling reporters at an ironworkers training facility that the choice for voters has come down to her and PC Leader Doug Ford.
"It's pretty clear that people have decided Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals are not going to form government next time around," Horwath said Tuesday. She's used the line several times over the long weekend.
"The decision folks have to make at this point is: is that going to be Doug Ford, or me? I believe that we need to create more opportunity, that we can build a province where people can build a good life again."
Riding to watch
Flamborough-Glanbrook, population 111,070, profile by Samantha Craggs
This new riding encompasses most of Hamilton's rural areas and forms a large horseshoe around the city proper. Farmers live alongside suburban commuters who zip into Toronto on the GO train. It even has an international airport.
Federally, it's a blue riding. This is its first provincial election though, and it's tricky. The PC nomination generated friction when the party skipped over two long-time supporters to acclaim urban city councillor Donna Skelly. Judi Partridge, a Flamborough city councillor, is running for the Liberals, community advocate Melissa McGlashan for the NDP and environmentalist Janet Errygers for the Greens.
Donna Skelly will run against a fellow councillor in the Flamborough-Glanbrook riding. This will be Skelly's third election run for the Ontario PC party. (Samantha Craggs/CBC)
Much of the heat has been on Partridge and Skelly. In a recent local cable debate, Skelly told Partridge she didn't know how government worked, and Partridge likened an Ontario under Doug Ford to The Handmaid's Tale. It's a case of Skelly drawing out the riding's naturally blue voters, and Partridge cashing in her life-long ties to the area.
Campaign question
Since we've started sending out The Campaigner as a newsletter, we're getting questions about the campaign from you. We'll be rounding up some of the best and getting CBC election reporters and analysts to answer them. You can send questions to thecampaigner@cbc.ca
Here's one from Greg H.
"Just curious about any polling in Waterloo region, specifically Cambridge [or] if anyone is doing polls in Waterloo region. It's early going of course, still I'd like to see province, as well as regional polling."
And an answer from CBC's polling analyst Eric Grenier:
There hasn't been any public polling drilling down into individual ridings so far in this campaign. And while province wide polling usually does provide regional breakdowns, these are based on small sample sizes — with correspondingly large margins of error — and split the province up into relatively large regions. Waterloo and Cambridge, for instance, are usually included in a breakdown for southwestern Ontario. In some polls, that includes everywhere from Windsor to Niagara Falls.
The Ontario Poll Tracker aggregates this data in order to provide some more robust regional breakdowns. Just go to the section titled "How the forecast has changed" and click on the regional tab and select the region you want to look at. As of the May 20 update, the PCs are narrowly ahead of the NDP in southwestern Ontario by a margin of 41 to 39 per cent, with the Liberals well behind at 12.5 per cent.
Poll tracker
The PCs are trending downwards but still hold a lead. The NDPs have surged ahead of the Liberals in the popular vote and closing on the PCs. Liberals have dropped to new lows in both popular support and potential seat wins. Get the full breakdown.
The long weekend has wrapped, which means campaigning will ramp up as we almost hit the halfway mark of this election campaign. Here's where we are on day 14.
Plus NDP gains in poll tracker and why regional polling isn't always reliable
CBC News · Posted: May 22, 2018 12:01 PM ET | Last Updated: an hour ago
The long weekend has wrapped, which means campaigning will ramp up as we almost hit the halfway mark of this election campaign. All the leaders are in and around the Toronto area — we're tracking all the places they've gone here.
Here's what you need to know on day 14:
Latest from the campaign
- NDP Leaders Andrea Horwath, Jagmeet Singh team up at Brampton event
- Horwath's team is trying to build on her momentum by bringing in the big guns — in this case, the federal NDP leader. The same won't be happening for the Liberals, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau staying off the campaign trail entirely.
- From crime to crumbling roads, Ottawa South voters look for local help
- During CBC Ottawa's walkabout in the riding, community relations were flagged as one of its big issues including gang violence, shootings and stabbings. It's a topic that hasn't come up much on the wider campaign trail but is worth talking about as it is on some voter's minds.
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath talks with apprentices and journeymen at the Ironworkers local 721 office in Toronto during a campaign stop on Tuesday. (Nathan Denette/Canadian Press)
"June 7, there will be a new premier in the premier's chair."
That's the new line from NDP Leader Andrea Horwath this week as polls show her pulling away from the Liberals and edging closer to the front-running PCs. She first used it Monday at a rally in Brampton.
On Tuesday, she once again dismissed Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne's chances at re-election, telling reporters at an ironworkers training facility that the choice for voters has come down to her and PC Leader Doug Ford.
"It's pretty clear that people have decided Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals are not going to form government next time around," Horwath said Tuesday. She's used the line several times over the long weekend.
"The decision folks have to make at this point is: is that going to be Doug Ford, or me? I believe that we need to create more opportunity, that we can build a province where people can build a good life again."
Riding to watch
Flamborough-Glanbrook, population 111,070, profile by Samantha Craggs
This new riding encompasses most of Hamilton's rural areas and forms a large horseshoe around the city proper. Farmers live alongside suburban commuters who zip into Toronto on the GO train. It even has an international airport.
Federally, it's a blue riding. This is its first provincial election though, and it's tricky. The PC nomination generated friction when the party skipped over two long-time supporters to acclaim urban city councillor Donna Skelly. Judi Partridge, a Flamborough city councillor, is running for the Liberals, community advocate Melissa McGlashan for the NDP and environmentalist Janet Errygers for the Greens.
Much of the heat has been on Partridge and Skelly. In a recent local cable debate, Skelly told Partridge she didn't know how government worked, and Partridge likened an Ontario under Doug Ford to The Handmaid's Tale. It's a case of Skelly drawing out the riding's naturally blue voters, and Partridge cashing in her life-long ties to the area.
Campaign question
Since we've started sending out The Campaigner as a newsletter, we're getting questions about the campaign from you. We'll be rounding up some of the best and getting CBC election reporters and analysts to answer them. You can send questions to thecampaigner@cbc.ca
Here's one from Greg H.
"Just curious about any polling in Waterloo region, specifically Cambridge [or] if anyone is doing polls in Waterloo region. It's early going of course, still I'd like to see province, as well as regional polling."
And an answer from CBC's polling analyst Eric Grenier:
There hasn't been any public polling drilling down into individual ridings so far in this campaign. And while province wide polling usually does provide regional breakdowns, these are based on small sample sizes — with correspondingly large margins of error — and split the province up into relatively large regions. Waterloo and Cambridge, for instance, are usually included in a breakdown for southwestern Ontario. In some polls, that includes everywhere from Windsor to Niagara Falls.
The Ontario Poll Tracker aggregates this data in order to provide some more robust regional breakdowns. Just go to the section titled "How the forecast has changed" and click on the regional tab and select the region you want to look at. As of the May 20 update, the PCs are narrowly ahead of the NDP in southwestern Ontario by a margin of 41 to 39 per cent, with the Liberals well behind at 12.5 per cent.
Poll tracker
The PCs are trending downwards but still hold a lead. The NDPs have surged ahead of the Liberals in the popular vote and closing on the PCs. Liberals have dropped to new lows in both popular support and potential seat wins. Get the full breakdown.
谷歌大侠
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For Ontario voters, Andrea Horwath may be ‘just right’
By JAIME WATT Opinion
Sun., May 20, 2018
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/sta...-voters-andrea-horwath-may-be-just-right.html
The fairy tale that best fits this Ontario election: Goldilocks and the Three Bears.
The voters, playing the role of Goldilocks, find the Liberal porridge has grown cold and, for many, Doug Ford’s Conservative bowl a trifle hot. That leaves Andrea Horwath and the NDP an opportunity: to serve porridge that is exactly right temperature for the times.
I wrote in this space a few weeks ago that Horwath might well be the exception to the rule that you never get a second chance to make a good impression.
Despite two previous unsuccessful election campaigns, this time Horwath has done a commendable job of reintroducing herself, of focusing on families and the affordability of everyday life — two things that matter greatly to many voters.
In so doing, she has positioned the NDP as a safe place for those alienated from the Liberals but unsure — or too sure in negative ways — about Ford. That perception was reinforced in the televised leaders’ debates earlier this month, where, at times, she left Ford and Kathleen Wynne flailing at one another as she serenely looked on.
Horwath also stands to benefit from the key policy areas where Liberal and NDP ideology either intersect or align: free child care, the $15 minimum wage and pharmacare are all mainstays of the traditional NDP liturgy now embraced by the Liberals.
Put another way, she will give you benefits of popular Liberal policies without actually having to vote Liberal. And so, with relatively little difference between party platforms, party leadership becomes critical.
And that’s space where Horwath stands to gain ground. Fairly or otherwise, Wynne has endured a reputational drubbing not only during her time in office, but from a laser-focused Ford. The result? Horwath has been left largely unscathed.
Then, there’s the reality that Ford has trust issues of his own with many voters beyond the bastions of rural and 905 ridings. Ontarians have historically been skittish about Tories who veer too far off the centre.
Successful conservative leaders like Mike Harris understood this. He packaged his policies as “common sense,” a successful attempt to soften the public perception of their hard edge.
After veering toward the centre in her last election campaign, Horwath’s return to the ancestral home of the left may also be rewarded. The recent endorsement of Ontario’s powerful elementary school teachers’ union, despite the considerable financial accommodations it received from the Liberal government, is a direct message as much as a broader indicator.
Time also works in Horwath’s favour. Bob Rae’s controversial tenure as Ontario’s only NDP premier — so far — has either faded from public memory or gained enough of a sepia tinge that it is no longer viewed as something to be forever avoided. More than 30 years later, revisionist factions have had sufficient time to reassess his legacy and cast it in a more flattering light.
The similarities to the past are hard to overlook.
In 2018, we have — as when Rae shot to power — an incumbent Liberal party widely perceived as arrogant, expensive and out of touch. We have an untested Tory leader who brings a persona and platform that makes many voters feel uneasy. And, at the same time, provincial voters are expressing a strong desire for change.
But, so too, the deviations from the past are equally hard to overlook.
No matter how valiantly he tried to demonstrate his populist sympathies, Rae was never quite able to overcome the fact he was a privileged child of distinguished diplomats, a Rhodes scholar and an incandescent intellect.
Horwath, by contrast, is a more traditional NDP leader. She has working-class roots in Hamilton. She’s a single mom. She’s cultivated the “I am one of you” persona better this time out. It is also more true of her than Ford who, despite his talk of rejecting elites, certainly is one when expressed in terms of family wealth.
For those tired of the Liberals, but uncertain of or unsupportive of the Ford-led Tories, the leader who seems like a good neighbour offering a “just right” bowl of porridge may be, after all, a very appealing prospect.
Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist. He is a freelance contributor for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @jaimewatt
By JAIME WATT Opinion
Sun., May 20, 2018
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/sta...-voters-andrea-horwath-may-be-just-right.html
The fairy tale that best fits this Ontario election: Goldilocks and the Three Bears.
The voters, playing the role of Goldilocks, find the Liberal porridge has grown cold and, for many, Doug Ford’s Conservative bowl a trifle hot. That leaves Andrea Horwath and the NDP an opportunity: to serve porridge that is exactly right temperature for the times.
I wrote in this space a few weeks ago that Horwath might well be the exception to the rule that you never get a second chance to make a good impression.
Despite two previous unsuccessful election campaigns, this time Horwath has done a commendable job of reintroducing herself, of focusing on families and the affordability of everyday life — two things that matter greatly to many voters.
In so doing, she has positioned the NDP as a safe place for those alienated from the Liberals but unsure — or too sure in negative ways — about Ford. That perception was reinforced in the televised leaders’ debates earlier this month, where, at times, she left Ford and Kathleen Wynne flailing at one another as she serenely looked on.
Horwath also stands to benefit from the key policy areas where Liberal and NDP ideology either intersect or align: free child care, the $15 minimum wage and pharmacare are all mainstays of the traditional NDP liturgy now embraced by the Liberals.
Put another way, she will give you benefits of popular Liberal policies without actually having to vote Liberal. And so, with relatively little difference between party platforms, party leadership becomes critical.
And that’s space where Horwath stands to gain ground. Fairly or otherwise, Wynne has endured a reputational drubbing not only during her time in office, but from a laser-focused Ford. The result? Horwath has been left largely unscathed.
Then, there’s the reality that Ford has trust issues of his own with many voters beyond the bastions of rural and 905 ridings. Ontarians have historically been skittish about Tories who veer too far off the centre.
Successful conservative leaders like Mike Harris understood this. He packaged his policies as “common sense,” a successful attempt to soften the public perception of their hard edge.
After veering toward the centre in her last election campaign, Horwath’s return to the ancestral home of the left may also be rewarded. The recent endorsement of Ontario’s powerful elementary school teachers’ union, despite the considerable financial accommodations it received from the Liberal government, is a direct message as much as a broader indicator.
Time also works in Horwath’s favour. Bob Rae’s controversial tenure as Ontario’s only NDP premier — so far — has either faded from public memory or gained enough of a sepia tinge that it is no longer viewed as something to be forever avoided. More than 30 years later, revisionist factions have had sufficient time to reassess his legacy and cast it in a more flattering light.
The similarities to the past are hard to overlook.
In 2018, we have — as when Rae shot to power — an incumbent Liberal party widely perceived as arrogant, expensive and out of touch. We have an untested Tory leader who brings a persona and platform that makes many voters feel uneasy. And, at the same time, provincial voters are expressing a strong desire for change.
But, so too, the deviations from the past are equally hard to overlook.
No matter how valiantly he tried to demonstrate his populist sympathies, Rae was never quite able to overcome the fact he was a privileged child of distinguished diplomats, a Rhodes scholar and an incandescent intellect.
Horwath, by contrast, is a more traditional NDP leader. She has working-class roots in Hamilton. She’s a single mom. She’s cultivated the “I am one of you” persona better this time out. It is also more true of her than Ford who, despite his talk of rejecting elites, certainly is one when expressed in terms of family wealth.
For those tired of the Liberals, but uncertain of or unsupportive of the Ford-led Tories, the leader who seems like a good neighbour offering a “just right” bowl of porridge may be, after all, a very appealing prospect.
Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist. He is a freelance contributor for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @jaimewatt
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New Person
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NDP赢不好，但制衡一下FORD有好处。
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gocanoeing
本站元老
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其实我也不喜欢NDP，不过更不喜欢DF
简直是被某些华人保守派支持者逼着投NDP啊
简直是被某些华人保守派支持者逼着投NDP啊
