NAFTA talks break off, expected to resume next week,TRUMP的星期五DEADLINE废了

[ccc]

(CNN) The fate of NAFTA became uncertain Friday when the United States and Canada failed to come to an agreement on rewriting the three-nation trade pact.

But negotiations will resume on Wednesday.

"We know a win-win-win agreement is within reach and that's what we're working towards," said Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland at a press conference Friday.

The US Trade Representative's office said talks with Canada would continue and that President Donald Trump has formally notified Congress of the trade deal he struck with Mexico earlier this week.

"Today the President notified the Congress of his intent to sign a trade agreement with Mexico -- and Canada, if it is willing -- 90 days from now. The agreement is the most advanced and high-standard trade agreement in the world," the statement said.

Talks came to a head on Friday as officials rushed to beat a US-imposed deadline that would allow them to sign the deal before Mexico's president-elect, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, takes office on December 1.

The United States and Mexico announced a preliminary bilateral deal on Monday after resolving an issue over auto manufacturing. Canadian officials rejoined the talks this week.

Officials from both the US and Canadian negotiating teams confirmed Friday that they will continue working towards a trilateral deal, and that good progress has been made over the past year at revamping the 24-year-old trade deal.

"The government of Canada will not sign an agreement unless it's good for Canada and good for Canadians," Freeland said Friday.

At issue is Canadian concessions on agriculture.

Trump has said he wants Canada to end its steep tariffs on US dairy products, claiming they hurt US farmers. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has pledged to protect his country's dairy industry.

During Friday's negotiations, Canadian officials reportedly brought up remarks made by President Trump on Thursday during an off-the-record conversation with Bloomberg News . The Toronto Star reported that Trump said he would not make any compromises at all in the talks with Canada.

The deal with Canada would be "totally on our terms," he reportedly said.

During an event in North Carolina on Friday, Trump said he would move ahead with a bilateral agreement with Mexico.
"If we don't make a deal with Canada, that's just fine. I say, affectionately, we'll just have to tariff those cars coming in."
"That's a lot of money coming into the coffers of the United States," he added.

When asked about Trump's comments on Friday, Freeland said that her negotiating counterpart is US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and not President Trump.

"This week, and from the beginning of negotiations, Ambassador Lighthizer and his team have been negotiating in good faith and with good will," she said.

Officials from Canada and Mexico have repeatedly made it clear that they want a trilateral deal.

The White House must give Congress an official 90-day notice before entering into a new trade deal. Since administration notified Congress Friday, Trump will be allowed to sign the deal by November 30.

Even then, Congress could still block the deal. It's unlikely any rewrite of NAFTA would come up for a vote until 2019. (Procedure rules allow the president to sign the trade deal first, before Congress votes on it.)

The text of the agreement does not have to be submitted to Congress until September 30.

"Those 30 days is where they could have some wiggle room to revise the text and bring in Canada," said Rob Scott, the director of trade and manufacturing policy research at the Economic Policy Institute.

The governments of Canada and Mexico must also ratify the agreement. If they don't, there's no deal.

 

[ccc]

Canadian and U.S. officials have agreed to take a weekend break from NAFTA talks after a week of tense negotiations in Washington and comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting he is unwilling to compromise on a deal.

Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland told reporters she's optimistic a deal is still within reach, but "we're not there yet."

"With goodwill and flexibility on all sides I know we can get there," she said at a Friday afternoon news conference at the Canadian Embassy.

Freeland said Canada is making progress but "will only sign a new agreement if it benefits Canada and Canadians."

United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said he'll pick up with Canada's team on Wednesday in Washington, D.C.

"We have also been negotiating with Canada throughout this year-long process. This week those meetings continued at all levels. The talks were constructive, and we made progress," Lighthizer said in an emailed statement.

He said U.S. President Donald Trump has notified Congress that his government intends to sign a trade agreement "with Mexico — and Canada, if it is willing — 90 days from now."

Senior U.S. officials, speaking to reporters on a background call, said the Trump administration is on pace to offer Congress a full text of the renegotiated deal within 30 days.

The United States, Canada and Mexico had been trying to come up with at least a preliminary agreement in principle by the end of Friday — a deadline selected by Trump.

Sources tell CBC News that Chapter 19 of NAFTA, which contains a dispute-resolution process that Canada is determined to keep and the U.S. wants to scrap, is the most challenging area in the talks.

Another continuing irritant, supply management, reared its head Friday when a spokesperson for Lighthizer said Canada hasn't made any concessions on agriculture.

'Canada knows where I stand'
The pause in talks and Trump's letter to Congress capped off a rocky day of negotiations.

The Toronto Star reported Friday that Trump, in an interview with Bloomberg News, said the U.S. is unwilling to make concessions and that his position was "going to be so insulting they're [Canada] not going to be able to make a deal." CBC News has not independently verified the comments.

U.S. President Donald Trump admitted making off-the-record comments about NAFTA negotiations after the Toronto Star reported he told Bloomberg News the U.S. would not make any compromises in a deal. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Trump admitted on Twitter that he made the comments to Bloomberg on Friday, claiming an understanding with the news agency that his comments were off the record was "blatantly violated."

"Oh well, just more dishonest reporting. I am used to it. At least Canada knows where I stand!" he tweeted.

Sources say Canada confronted U.S. negotiators about Trump's comments as talks between Freeland and Lighthizer got underway in Washington earlier in the day.

Asked about the report, Freeland insisted Canada won't cave to any demand, and that the government will defend the national interest in any NAFTA deal.

Trump claims total control

In the remarks published by the Star, Trump said any possible NAFTA deal would be "totally on our terms."

"Off the record, Canada's working their ass off. And every time we have a problem with a point, I just put up a picture of a Chevrolet Impala," he reportedly said.

The Impala is assembled at the General Motors plant in Oshawa, Ont.

Trump announced Monday that he and outgoing Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto agreed on a new trade deal that he said could replace NAFTA. He has threatened to slap 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian-built cars if there is no NAFTA deal.

Former interim Conservative leader Rona Ambrose, now a member of the government's NAFTA council, said Trump's letter to Congress gives Canada a month to smooth out the sticking points.

"Everyone wants to get a deal now that Canada is back at the table, but we didn't get one today. That doesn't mean we won't get one next week," she told CBC Radio's The House.

She noted the respectful tone between Freeland and Lighthizer.

"And interestingly they both point to the concessions that Mexico has made around the auto sector. That is what I think is key to getting a deal."

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh praised the Liberal government for pausing.

"Trump is trying to force a bad deal on Canadians, and our government is right to take the time it needs to get this deal right," he tweeted late Friday.

Tory MP and foreign affairs critic Erin O'Toole said it looks like the Canadian team is trying to catch up to the U.S. and Mexico.

"After spending three months on the sidelines, Canada is now back at the negotiating table trying to make up for lost time," he said in a statement.

"We are ready and willing to assist the government at this critical time."

 

[ccc]

 

[ccc]

 

[ccc]

 

[ccc]

Canada must learn from our history and stand firm on NAFTA
Derek Burney
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published September 2, 2018Updated 6 hours ago

Derek Burney was Canada’s ambassador to the United States from 1989 to 1993. He led the Canadian delegation in concluding negotiations of the Canada-U.S. free-trade agreement.

As more obnoxious insults were directed at Canada from Donald Trump – a country so repulsive that, in his own words, “they’re not going to be able to make a deal” – the North American free-trade agreement negotiations lurched precariously beyond last Friday’s deadline. We are witnessing American divide and conquer, might-is-right tactics at their very worst. Mexico has succumbed. Will Canada follow suit accepting salvage as the only option or will we stand firm?

First, let’s separate the substance from the bombast. The agreement with Mexico on autos is probably good for Canada as are many of the genuine, modernization elements (for example, digital commerce.) But to be negotiating with the threat of 25-per-cent tariffs on autos if we do not concede to all U.S. demands is odious. The chief executives of Detroit’s big three auto makers should explain bluntly to their President that such action would disrupt the efficiency of their integrated supply chains and raise the cost of cars for U.S. buyers.

Canada has already signalled a willingness to compromise modestly on other issues such as intellectual property and even on dairy products, but differences over the dispute settlement mechanism (of Chapter 19) remain as the single biggest obstacle to agreement.

Optics are important to Mr. Trump. As the Wall Street Journal observed recently, “if you give [him] an inch on trade, he will celebrate a mile.” Finding that inch without capitulating is the challenge for Canada. Time offers us some leverage and we should not be stampeded into a bad deal. Mr. Trump has already triggered the 90-day requirement for consultations with Congress with or without Canada.

But it is not that simple. He only has authority to negotiate a trilateral replacement and cannot unilaterally amend NAFTA without Canada’s signature. His administration wants the existing Congress to approve an agreement because if, as many suspect, the increasingly left-leaning Democrats win the House of Representatives in November, all bets are off for the approval of any trade agreement. Meanwhile, until abrogated, NAFTA remains in effect.

With negotiations hanging in the balance primarily over dispute settlement, the current situation is like déjà vu all over again as this was the issue that almost scuppered the initial free-trade negotiations in 1987. It may be time for top-level political intervention.

The dispute settlement issue was vital then, and is now because we are dealing with an economic giant more than 10 times our size, one that tends to render decisions on trade that are arbitrary, capricious and contravene U.S. trade law. The panels act as a check on such actions obliging each party to adhere strictly to their own trade laws. The mechanism is not foolproof. Canada has won on several issues such as softwood lumber and labelling on meat, but even when we have won, the United States has used every pretext to avoid honouring the result. Significantly, the same mechanism was strengthened in NAFTA, emulated by the WTO and in other major trade agreements. It helps temper the raw power imbalance.

Unfortunately, and despite rhetorical assurances, Mexico deserted Canada at the 11th hour on this key issue even though it is similarly vulnerable. Each country has to ultimately act in its own best interest in trade negotiations without relying on elusive goodwill among partners.

If we have learned anything about the Trump administration’s actions on trade to date it is that we need independent adjudication of disputes now more than ever. The tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum were implemented on spurious “national security” grounds. They are a prime example of egregious actions that should be challenged. If we can modify U.S. behaviour with other safeguards, notably against dubious national security claims, so be it. But we need the spectre of binding dispute settlement to give greater security of access and certainty to our exporters.

The lessons of history are clear. Brian Mulroney stood firm on this issue in 1987 and the results more than vindicate his bold decision. The Trudeau government should also hold firm against Mr. Trump. While Mr. Mulroney had the advantage of dealing with presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, both of whom shared his basic objectives on trade, the notion of mutual benefit is not part of Mr. Trump’s trade vision.

When we are confronted with schoolyard bully tactics, the choice is clear. Concede and hope that the behaviour will improve, or resist in the hope that rational voices in Congress and business will constrain the President’s worst impulses. Remembering too, as George Schultz was fond of saying, “It is never over until it is over and, in Washington, it is never really over.” This is, however, time to stand firm.

 

[ccc]

“We need to keep the Chapter 19 dispute resolution because that ensures that the rules are actually followed. And we know we have a president who doesn’t always follow the rules as they’re laid out,” Trudeau told Edmonton’s 630 CHED radio.

Trump did not respond directly. He suggested that he was optimistic about the talks, hinting that there could be a deal by the weekend.

“A lot of people are saying, ‘How are you doing with Canada?’ We’ll let you know. We should know over the next two or three days. Maybe even today. But you will be the first to know,” Trump said at the White House.

Trump added, though, that it would be fine for the U.S. and “won’t be fine for Canada” if no deal were reached.

Mexican chief negotiator Kenneth Smith Ramos told an aluminum industry event in Mexico that he hoped Canada and the U.S. would come to an accord by Friday or Saturday. He repeated the statement on Twitter.

Caution is warranted. Several previous eruptions of deal-is-near optimism over the past year have not been followed by a deal, and the Canadian government was unwilling to offer a prediction on Wednesday.

Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland said the day’s talks had been constructive, but she declined to say how close the two sides were.

Freeland said she would return to the table on Thursday morning after lower-level officials worked into the evening and “probably late into the night.”

“We are making good progress. We continue to get a deeper and deeper understanding of the concerns on both sides,” Freeland said after her second meeting of the day with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and other U.S. officials in Washington.

Trump said the U.S. has a “very strong position” in the talks with Canada. He argued that Canada and other countries “have been taking advantage of the United States for many years.”

Article Continued Below
“We’re really, right now, in very intense negotiations … with Canada. We’ll see how it works out. And if it doesn’t work out, that’s going to be fine for the country, for our country. It won’t be fine for Canada. But we love Canada. They’re our next-door neighbour. We’ve had a great relationship with them for many, many years,” Trump told reporters at a meeting with the emir of Kuwait.

Any Canada-U.S. agreement would not be the end of the process.

Smith Ramos said Mexico would have to rejoin the talks at least briefly to complete a three-country deal. And any formal agreement would not be final until approved by the three countries’ legislatures — including the U.S. Congress, which has sometimes taken four years or more to vote on trade deals reached by the president.

Trump seemed enthused about the possibility of a deal, telling reporters that he had come up with a new name to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement he dislikes.

Trudeau called the Chapter 19 system one of his “red lines.” The system allows import duties imposed on Canada by the U.S. government to be challenged at independent panels made up of people from both countries rather than in the U.S. court system. The U.S. and Mexico can also use the Chapter 19 panels to challenge Canadian duties outside Canadian courts.

Trudeau said Wednesday, as he did Tuesday, that his other red line is the preservation of NAFTA’s “cultural exemption,” which allows Canada to maintain a system of regulations and subsidies meant to protect “Canadian content.” Trudeau said the exemption is needed to allow Canada to block American companies from trying to take over Canadian media entities.

“We can’t imagine a situation in which an American TV company or network could come up and buy radio stations or buy, you know, CTV for example. That would not be good for Canada. It wouldn’t be good for our identity. It wouldn’t be good for our sovereignty,” Trudeau said.

Trudeau made clear that he was open to making incremental concessions to the U.S. on dairy.

He vowed again to defend Canada’s protectionist supply management system, which uses quotas and tariffs to shield Canadian farmers from foreign competition. But he noted that Canada has “shown a certain amount of flexibility” on dairy in other trade negotiations.

In the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Canada agreed to open 3.25 per cent of the domestic dairy market to imports.

“These are things we’re always willing to look at,” Trudeau said, though “that depends on the kinds of negotiations we have.”

Canada and the U.S. blew past a non-binding Trump deadline of last Friday for Canada to sign on to the preliminary deal between the U.S. and Mexico. Trump officially notified Congress on Friday of a deal with Mexico, starting a ticking clock that might allow him to sign a final deal with Mexico alone as soon as the end of November.

But it is not clear whether Congress would be willing to grant him permission to proceed with Mexico alone. Senior Republicans, along with business and labour leaders, have insisted that the deal include Canada, and they have said that a Mexico-only process could violate trade law.