春夏秋鼕
本站元老
- 注册
- 2014-10-19
- 消息
- 5,096
- 荣誉分数
- 1,204
- 声望点数
- 323
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ble-and-reliable-huawei-in-memo-globe-reports
Telus Backs 'Viable and Reliable' Huawei in Memo, Globe Reports
Josh WingroveJanuary 21, 2019, 3:51 AM EST
economics
China’s Economy Slows to the Weakest Pace Since 2009
Bloomberg News
January 20, 2019, 9:00 PM EST
Robin Xing of Morgan Stanley discusses the nation’s 4Q GDP data, policy easing and his outlook for the economy.
Sign up for our new China newsletter, a weekly dispatch coming soon on where China stands now and where it's going next.
Early signs that China is cushioning its economic slowdown won’t prevent it adding to downward pressures on the global expansion this year.
December gauges of consumption and factory output in the world’s second-largest economy accelerated and investment held up even as expansion in the fourth quarter dipped to 6.4 percent. That slowing trajectory is seen continuing, with the slowest annual growth since 1990.
As policy chiefs and business leaders descend on Davos for the annual World Economic Forum this week, the mood over global growth prospects is more downbeat amid political turmoil in the U.K over Brexit, and a government shutdown and disappointing data in the U.S. China is unlikely to offer much respite as it sticks to a drip-feed stimulus strategy that investors worry risks letting the economy fall into a slump.
“If China continues with its measured and piecemeal approach to stimulus, global growth will continue to lose momentum,” said Katrina Ell, an economist with Moody’s Analytics in Sydney. “The big unknown is how far China will go. Beijing’s preference has been to avoid repeating previous massive stimulus support, but they may be forced into more aggressive action if momentum continues to wane.”
China’s economy, which contributes about a third of global growth, is on a long-term slowing trajectory as it shifts from the investment-led model of the past while carrying a heavy debt load. The government’s response with targeted stimulus measures is also being tested by the standoff with U.S. President Donald Trump over trade at a time when the global expansion is already looking shakier.
Capital Economics Ltd. estimates slower China expansion will shave about 0.2 percentage point off global growth this year, compared to 2018, while Citigroup Inc. warned in a Jan. 14 note that the China slowdown may “blow the global economy off course.”
World Economy Wobbles on Eve of Davos With Politics to Blame
The data contributed to a continued rally in Asian stocks. Shares in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney climbed after the S&P 500 Index hit its highest since early December on Friday.
For the full year, the economy expanded 6.6 percent, the slowest pace since 1990 and in line with estimates. Although it has moderated significantly from the years of double-digit growth, China is still one of the fastest growing large economies and its larger size now means it remains the world’s growth engine.
The statistics office also said Monday:
A breakdown of the data indicate modest signs that government stimulus may be working, albeit slowly. Investment in infrastructure continued its pickup from a nadir reached in September. Industrial output data signal stronger activity in construction, with glass and cement output both accelerating.
The retail sales breakdown also went some way to counter fears of a slump in consumer confidence, showing that the decline in auto sales far outpaces any weakening in other items. Sales of household electronics, furniture, clothing and food all accelerated.
“More crucial than the GDP figure for me was that retail sales didn’t see any further deterioration,” said James Laurenceson, deputy director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology in Sydney. “As long as services and retail sales are holding up, generally speaking China can get by. But if those remaining drivers of growth start to tank, then the trouble becomes very significant indeed.”
A Bloomberg gauge that estimates monthly GDP rose to 6.6 percent in December from 6.35 percent a month earlier.
Targeted Support
So far, the government and central bank have tried to stimulate the economy without resorting to a massive credit flood and infrastructure binge like in 2009. The People’s Bank of China has been quietly guiding interbank borrowing costs down without actually cutting official interest rates, and the fiscal authorities have pressed on with tax cuts and expedited government bond sales, among other policies.
With President Xi Jinping’s top economic aide Liu He heading to the U.S. this month, the challenging economic background adds pressure to reach a deal on trade. According to people close to the discussions, the two sides have so far made little progress ending what the U.S. has dubbed as decades of state-coordinated Chinese theft of American intellectual property.
Due to the massive size of its market, China’s slowdown is also bringing pain to companies and industries worldwide. Auto sales in the most populous nation dropped for the first time in three decades last year, hurting prospects of not only local manufacturers but also of companies such as Volkswagen AG and Toyota Motor Corp.
Meantime, a downturn in iPhone sales in China has hurt Apple Inc.’s share price this month and raised question marks over whether the consumer can keep cushioning the economy’s re-balancing away from the old smokestack industries. A plunge in South Korean exports in early January to China added to concerns.
If the slowdown deepens, authorities may resort to more aggressive easing such as relaxing property purchasing curbs in the biggest cities, economists have speculated. Following the data, analysts were split over how much confidence the most recent numbers inspire, though most agreed the government will react if the data worsens.
"There will be more stimulus, more monetary easing, more infrastructure investment, which will support the jobs in the manufacturing sector even if the business activities are low,” said Iris Pang, an analyst at ING Bank N.V. in Hong Kong.
— With assistance by Xiaoqing Pi, Kevin Hamlin, James Mayger, Enda Curran, Miao Han, and Yinan Zhao
LEARN MORE
Telus Backs 'Viable and Reliable' Huawei in Memo, Globe Reports
Josh WingroveJanuary 21, 2019, 3:51 AM EST
economics
China’s Economy Slows to the Weakest Pace Since 2009
Bloomberg News
January 20, 2019, 9:00 PM EST
- Retail sales, factory output accelerated; investment held up
- Economists expect more stimulus if growth headwinds increase
Robin Xing of Morgan Stanley discusses the nation’s 4Q GDP data, policy easing and his outlook for the economy.
Sign up for our new China newsletter, a weekly dispatch coming soon on where China stands now and where it's going next.
Early signs that China is cushioning its economic slowdown won’t prevent it adding to downward pressures on the global expansion this year.
December gauges of consumption and factory output in the world’s second-largest economy accelerated and investment held up even as expansion in the fourth quarter dipped to 6.4 percent. That slowing trajectory is seen continuing, with the slowest annual growth since 1990.
As policy chiefs and business leaders descend on Davos for the annual World Economic Forum this week, the mood over global growth prospects is more downbeat amid political turmoil in the U.K over Brexit, and a government shutdown and disappointing data in the U.S. China is unlikely to offer much respite as it sticks to a drip-feed stimulus strategy that investors worry risks letting the economy fall into a slump.
“If China continues with its measured and piecemeal approach to stimulus, global growth will continue to lose momentum,” said Katrina Ell, an economist with Moody’s Analytics in Sydney. “The big unknown is how far China will go. Beijing’s preference has been to avoid repeating previous massive stimulus support, but they may be forced into more aggressive action if momentum continues to wane.”
China’s economy, which contributes about a third of global growth, is on a long-term slowing trajectory as it shifts from the investment-led model of the past while carrying a heavy debt load. The government’s response with targeted stimulus measures is also being tested by the standoff with U.S. President Donald Trump over trade at a time when the global expansion is already looking shakier.
Capital Economics Ltd. estimates slower China expansion will shave about 0.2 percentage point off global growth this year, compared to 2018, while Citigroup Inc. warned in a Jan. 14 note that the China slowdown may “blow the global economy off course.”
World Economy Wobbles on Eve of Davos With Politics to Blame
The data contributed to a continued rally in Asian stocks. Shares in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney climbed after the S&P 500 Index hit its highest since early December on Friday.
For the full year, the economy expanded 6.6 percent, the slowest pace since 1990 and in line with estimates. Although it has moderated significantly from the years of double-digit growth, China is still one of the fastest growing large economies and its larger size now means it remains the world’s growth engine.
The statistics office also said Monday:
A breakdown of the data indicate modest signs that government stimulus may be working, albeit slowly. Investment in infrastructure continued its pickup from a nadir reached in September. Industrial output data signal stronger activity in construction, with glass and cement output both accelerating.
The retail sales breakdown also went some way to counter fears of a slump in consumer confidence, showing that the decline in auto sales far outpaces any weakening in other items. Sales of household electronics, furniture, clothing and food all accelerated.
“More crucial than the GDP figure for me was that retail sales didn’t see any further deterioration,” said James Laurenceson, deputy director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology in Sydney. “As long as services and retail sales are holding up, generally speaking China can get by. But if those remaining drivers of growth start to tank, then the trouble becomes very significant indeed.”
A Bloomberg gauge that estimates monthly GDP rose to 6.6 percent in December from 6.35 percent a month earlier.
Targeted Support
So far, the government and central bank have tried to stimulate the economy without resorting to a massive credit flood and infrastructure binge like in 2009. The People’s Bank of China has been quietly guiding interbank borrowing costs down without actually cutting official interest rates, and the fiscal authorities have pressed on with tax cuts and expedited government bond sales, among other policies.
With President Xi Jinping’s top economic aide Liu He heading to the U.S. this month, the challenging economic background adds pressure to reach a deal on trade. According to people close to the discussions, the two sides have so far made little progress ending what the U.S. has dubbed as decades of state-coordinated Chinese theft of American intellectual property.
Due to the massive size of its market, China’s slowdown is also bringing pain to companies and industries worldwide. Auto sales in the most populous nation dropped for the first time in three decades last year, hurting prospects of not only local manufacturers but also of companies such as Volkswagen AG and Toyota Motor Corp.
Meantime, a downturn in iPhone sales in China has hurt Apple Inc.’s share price this month and raised question marks over whether the consumer can keep cushioning the economy’s re-balancing away from the old smokestack industries. A plunge in South Korean exports in early January to China added to concerns.
If the slowdown deepens, authorities may resort to more aggressive easing such as relaxing property purchasing curbs in the biggest cities, economists have speculated. Following the data, analysts were split over how much confidence the most recent numbers inspire, though most agreed the government will react if the data worsens.
"There will be more stimulus, more monetary easing, more infrastructure investment, which will support the jobs in the manufacturing sector even if the business activities are low,” said Iris Pang, an analyst at ING Bank N.V. in Hong Kong.
— With assistance by Xiaoqing Pi, Kevin Hamlin, James Mayger, Enda Curran, Miao Han, and Yinan Zhao
LEARN MORE
