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8 hr 14 min ago
New US model predicts much higher Covid-19 death toll in UK. But British scientists are skeptical
From CNN's Ivana Kottasová
British scientists have pushed back against an influential new coronavirus model that predicts the UK will be the worst-hit European country, with a death toll from Covid-19 possibly much higher than previously thought.
The grim forecast came from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine in Seattle on Tuesday. It predicted 66,314 people would die of Covid-19 in the UK by early August.
The British government's plan for tackling the epidemic has been largely informed by a study from the Imperial College London, which said that a lockdown and social distancing measures would -- hopefully -- limit the number of deaths to between 20,000 and 30,000.
Models likely to change "dramatically": Several high-profile scientists in the UK have already voiced their concerns over the IHME model.
Professor Sylvia Richardson, of Cambridge University and the co-chair of the Royal Statistical Society Task Force on Covid-19, told the Science Media Centre the projections are based on "very strong assumptions about the way the epidemic will progress."
She said the model was "based mostly on using the experience in other countries to fit a smooth curve to the counts of deaths reported so far in the UK, rather than any modeling of the epidemic itself."
"Methods like this are well known for being extremely sensitive, and are likely to change dramatically as new information comes in," Richardson added.
Read more here:
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New US model predicts much higher Covid-19 death toll in UK. But British scientists are skeptical
New US model predicts much higher Covid-19 death toll in UK. But British scientists are skeptical
From CNN's Ivana Kottasová
British scientists have pushed back against an influential new coronavirus model that predicts the UK will be the worst-hit European country, with a death toll from Covid-19 possibly much higher than previously thought.
The grim forecast came from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine in Seattle on Tuesday. It predicted 66,314 people would die of Covid-19 in the UK by early August.
The British government's plan for tackling the epidemic has been largely informed by a study from the Imperial College London, which said that a lockdown and social distancing measures would -- hopefully -- limit the number of deaths to between 20,000 and 30,000.
Models likely to change "dramatically": Several high-profile scientists in the UK have already voiced their concerns over the IHME model.
Professor Sylvia Richardson, of Cambridge University and the co-chair of the Royal Statistical Society Task Force on Covid-19, told the Science Media Centre the projections are based on "very strong assumptions about the way the epidemic will progress."
She said the model was "based mostly on using the experience in other countries to fit a smooth curve to the counts of deaths reported so far in the UK, rather than any modeling of the epidemic itself."
"Methods like this are well known for being extremely sensitive, and are likely to change dramatically as new information comes in," Richardson added.
Read more here:
RELATED
New US model predicts much higher Covid-19 death toll in UK. But British scientists are skeptical
