华盛顿大学将模型预测的美国冠状病毒死亡人数从6万增加到7万4千

[lindamy]

19 min ago
Pandemic model increases predicted US coronavirus death toll to 74,000
From CNN's Carma Hassan

Dr. Chris Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Help Metrics and Evaluation, told CNN Tonight that they’ve adjusted their scientific model to increase the predicted death toll from the novel coronavirus to 74,000.

“Our forecast now is for 74,000 deaths. That’s our best estimate. The range is pretty wide because there’s a lot of unknown factors there, but our best estimate is going up, and we see these protracted, long peaks in some states,” Murray said.
“We’re also seeing signs in the mobility data that people are getting more active, and that’s also feeding into our assessment.”

The model had previously forecast 60,000 deaths from Covid-19.

Murray said this data would also impact their recommendations on when social distancing could be relaxed on a state-by-state basis. He said their recommendations would shift out past the mid-May to early June dates they had previously suggested.

Murray said he thinks that states are opening too early.

“If you’re focused on trying to protect people’s health, then the answer is absolutely. It’s a safer strategy to get the number of infections in the community down to a really low level and then testing and contact tracing and isolation can work,” Murray said.

More than 56,000 people have died from the coronavirus in the US, according to Johns Hopkins University.

 

[lindamy]

美国现在的死亡人数是56803

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	Total Tests	Tests/ 1M pop
World	3,064,830	+2,354	211,609	+160	922,389	1,930,832	56,300	393	27.1
USA	1,010,507	+151	56,803	+6	138,990	814,714	14,186	3,053	172	5,696,928	17,211
Italy	199,414		26,977		66,624	105,813	1,956	3,298	446	1,789,662	29,600
Spain	229,422		23,521		120,832	85,069	7,764	4,907	503	1,345,560	28,779
France	165,842		23,293		45,513	97,036	4,608	2,541	357	463,662	7,103
UK	157,149		21,092		N/A	135,713	1,559	2,315	311	719,910	10,605
Belgium	46,687		7,207		10,878	28,602	903	4,028	622	214,042	18,468
Germany	158,758		6,126		114,500	38,132	2,409	1,895	73	2,072,669	24,738
Iran	91,472		5,806		70,933	14,733	3,011	1,089	69	432,329	5,147
China	82,836	+6	4,633		77,555	648	50	58	3
Brazil	67,446	+945	4,603	+60	31,142	31,701	8,318	317	22	339,552	1,597
Netherlands	38,245		4,518		N/A	33,477	905	2,232	264	193,950	11,319
Turkey	112,261		2,900		33,791	75,570	1,736	1,331	34	918,885	10,895
Canada	48,500		2,707		18,268	27,525	557	1,285	72	733,705	19,440
Sweden	18,926		2,274		1,005	15,647	399	1,874	225	94,500	9,357
Switzerland	29,164		1,665		22,200	5,299	185	3,370	192	245,300	28,343
Mexico	15,529	+852	1,434	+83	9,086	5,009	378	120	11	71,103	551
Ireland	19,648		1,102		9,233	9,313	146	3,979	223	127,319	25,785
India	29,451		939		7,137	21,375		21	0.7	665,819	482
Portugal	24,027		928		1,357	21,742	176	2,356	91	360,155	35,321
Russia	87,147		794		7,346	79,007	2,300	597	5	3,019,434	20,690
Peru	28,699		782		8,425	19,492	598	870	24	239,563	7,266
Indonesia	9,096		765		1,151	7,180		33	3	75,157	275
Ecuador	23,240		663		1,557	21,020	146	1,317	38	61,529	3,487
Romania	11,339		641		3,141	7,557	227	589	33	143,834	7,477
Poland	11,902		562		2,466	8,874	160	314	15	297,859	7,870
Austria	15,274		549		12,362	2,363	140	1,696	61	232,537	25,819
Philippines	7,777		511		932	6,334	31	71	5	89,889	820
Algeria	3,517		432		1,558	1,527	40	80	10	6,500	148
Denmark	8,698		427		5,959	2,312	72	1,502	74	155,810	26,900
Japan	13,614		385		1,899	11,330	300	108	3	150,692	1,191
Egypt	4,782		337		1,236	3,209		47	3	90,000	879
Pakistan	13,915		292		3,029	10,594	111	63	1	150,756	682
Dominican Republic	6,293		282		993	5,018	144	580	26	22,498	2,074
Hungary	2,583		280		498	1,805	61	267	29	65,625	6,793
Colombia	5,597		253		1,210	4,134	118	110	5	90,899	1,786
S. Korea	10,752	+14	244	+1	8,854	1,654	55	210	5	608,514	11,869
Czechia	7,445		223		2,826	4,396	73	695	21	218,474	20,401
Ukraine	9,009		220		864	7,925	110	206	5	93,519	2,138
Norway	7,599		205		32	7,362	52	1,402	38	164,316	30,310
Israel	15,555		204		7,200	8,151	129	1,797	24	302,691	34,971
Chile	13,813		198		7,327	6,288	426	723	10	161,235	8,434
Argentina	4,003		197		1,140	2,666	144	89	4	51,900	1,148
Finland	4,695		193		2,500	2,002	56	847	35	82,437	14,878
Panama	6,021	+242	167	+2	455	5,399	89	1,395	39	27,834	6,451
Serbia	8,275		162		1,209	6,904	85	947	19	67,917	7,773
Morocco	4,120		162		695	3,263	1	112	4	29,254	793
Bangladesh	5,913		152		131	5,630	1	36	0.9	50,401	306
Saudi Arabia	18,811		144		2,531	16,136	117	540	4	200,000	5,745
Greece	2,534		136		577	1,821	43	243	13	66,094	6,341
Moldova	3,481		102		925	2,454	212	863	25	11,763	2,916
Malaysia	5,820		99		3,957	1,764	37	180	3	144,686	4,470
South Africa	4,793		90		1,473	3,230	36	81	2	178,470	3,009
Luxembourg	3,729		88		3,123	518	20	5,957	141	39,102	62,465
Iraq	1,847		88		1,286	473		46	2	73,782	1,834
Australia	6,725	+5	84	+1	5,602	1,039	43	264	3	517,063	20,277
Slovenia	1,402		83		221	1,098	22	674	40	49,607	23,862
UAE	10,839		82		2,090	8,667	1	1,096	8	1,057,326	106,904
Belarus	11,289		75		1,740	9,474	92	1,195	8	153,845	16,281
North Macedonia	1,399		65		553	781	13	672	31	15,120	7,257
Honduras	661		61		79	521	10	67	6	3,643	368
Bosnia and Herzegovina	1,565		60		659	846	4	477	18	26,822	8,175
Croatia	2,039		59		1,166	814	21	497	14	32,817	7,994
Cameroon	1,705		58		805	842	12	64	2
Bulgaria	1,363		58		206	1,099	41	196	8	27,000	3,886
Afghanistan	1,703		57		220	1,426	7	44	1	8,694	223
Cuba	1,389		56		525	808	12	123	5	39,828	3,516
Bolivia	1,014	+64	53	+3	98	863	3	87	5	5,791	496
Thailand	2,931		52		2,609	270	61	42	0.7	178,083	2,551
Estonia	1,647		50		233	1,364	7	1,242	38	48,406	36,491
Burkina Faso	635		42		469	124		30	2
Lithuania	1,449		41		474	934	17	532	15	106,775	39,223
San Marino	538		41		64	433	4	15,856	1,208	2,082	61,360
Nigeria	1,337		40		255	1,042	2	6	0.2	10,918	53
Andorra	743		40		385	318	17	9,616	518	1,673	21,653
Tunisia	967		39		279	649	18	82	3	21,081	1,784
Channel Islands	525		35		352	138		3,020	201	5,342	30,725
Armenia	1,808		29		848	931	10	610	10	18,547	6,259
Niger	701		29		385	287		29	1	5,013	207
Albania	736		28		422	286	4	256	10	7,491	2,603
DRC	459		28		50	381		5	0.3
Somalia	480		26		10	444	2	30	2
Kazakhstan	2,835		25		720	2,090	35	151	1	205,560	10,948
Lebanon	710		24		145	541	44	104	4	29,367	4,303
Mali	408		23		113	272		20	1	2,172	107
Kuwait	3,288		22		1,012	2,254	64	770	5	179,000	41,915
Azerbaijan	1,678		22		1,162	494	15	165	2	128,807	12,704
Sudan	275		22		21	232		6	0.5
Isle of Man	308		20		248	40	22	3,622	235	2,903	34,140
New Zealand	1,472	+3	19		1,214	239	1	305	4	126,066	26,143
Slovakia	1,381		18		403	960	7	253	3	74,099	13,572
Liberia	133	+9	16	+4	25	92		26	3
Cyprus	822		15		148	659	15	681	12	50,220	41,595
Uruguay	620	+14	15		386	219	11	178	4	17,505	5,039
Guatemala	530	+30	15		49	466	5	30	0.8	7,200	402
Singapore	14,423		14		1,095	13,314	20	2,465	2	121,774	20,815
Ivory Coast	1,164		14		499	651		44	0.5
Kenya	363		14		114	235	2	7	0.3	17,992	335
Martinique	175		14		77	84	7	466	37
Latvia	818		13		267	538	5	434	7	49,235	26,103
Diamond Princess	712		13		645	54	4
Sint Maarten	74		13		33	28	7	1,726	303	266	6,204
Guadeloupe	149		12		82	55	11	372	30
Ghana	1,550		11		155	1,384	4	50	0.4	100,622	3,238
Bahamas	80		11		22	47	1	203	28
Qatar	11,244		10		1,066	10,168	72	3,903	3	85,709	29,749
Oman	2,049		10		364	1,675	3	401	2
Iceland	1,792		10		1,624	158	1	5,251	29	46,377	135,906
Mauritius	334		10		302	22	3	263	8	14,445	11,358
Venezuela	329		10		142	177	3	12	0.4	440,966	15,507
Tanzania	299		10		48	241	7	5	0.2
Senegal	736		9		284	443	1	44	0.5	466	28
Paraguay	230	+2	9		95	126	1	32	1	7,925	1,111
Bahrain	2,723		8		1,218	1,497	2	1,600	5	117,374	68,980
Uzbekistan	1,904		8		892	1,004	8	57	0.2	242,536	7,247
Kyrgyzstan	695		8		395	292	13	107	1	45,627	6,994
El Salvador	323		8		89	226	4	50	1	20,109	3,100
Congo	207		8		19	180		38	1
Trinidad and Tobago	116		8		59	49		83	6	1,532	1,095
Guyana	74		8		15	51	5	94	10	464	590
Guinea	1,163		7		246	910		89	0.5
Sri Lanka	588		7		126	455	2	27	0.3	15,240	712
Jordan	449		7		342	100	5	44	0.7	63,737	6,247
Jamaica	364	+14	7		29	328	3	123	2	3,621	1,223
Montenegro	321		7		189	125	7	511	11	5,085	8,096
Costa Rica	697		6		287	404	8	137	1	12,670	2,487
Georgia	497		6		156	335	6	125	2	11,504	2,884
Taiwan	429		6		290	133		18	0.3	61,684	2,590
Bermuda	110		6		44	60	10	1,766	96	1,682	27,008
Togo	98		6		62	30		12	0.7	5,951	719
Barbados	80		6		39	35	4	278	21	1,751	6,093
Haiti	76	+2	6		8	62		7	0.5	776	68
Myanmar	146		5		16	125		3	0.09	6,987	128
Hong Kong	1,038		4		787	247	4	138	0.5	145,640	19,426
Malta	450		4		286	160	1	1,019	9	29,456	66,712
Mayotte	401		4		144	253	4	1,470	15	2,500	9,164
Monaco	95		4		42	49	1	2,421	102
Sierra Leone	93		4		10	79		12	0.5
Zimbabwe	32	+1	4		5	23		2	0.3	6,395	430
Gabon	211		3		43	165	1	95	1	724	325
Ethiopia	124		3		50	71		1	0.03	14,588	127
Zambia	88		3		42	43	1	5	0.2	2,586	141
Syria	43		3		19	21		2	0.2
Saint Martin	38		3		24	11	3	983	78
Malawi	36		3		4	29	1	2	0.2	617	32
Antigua and Barbuda	24		3		11	10	1	245	31	113	1,154
Nicaragua	13		3		7	3		2	0.5

 

[Seraph72]

在Trump看来，只要不超过10万，就是他的功劳

 

[ccc]

美国现在的死亡人数是56803

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	Total Tests	Tests/ 1M pop
World	3,064,830	+2,354	211,609	+160	922,389	1,930,832	56,300	393	27.1
USA	1,010,507	+151	56,803	+6	138,990	814,714	14,186	3,053	172	5,696,928	17,211
Italy	199,414		26,977		66,624	105,813	1,956	3,298	446	1,789,662	29,600
Spain	229,422		23,521		120,832	85,069	7,764	4,907	503	1,345,560	28,779
France	165,842		23,293		45,513	97,036	4,608	2,541	357	463,662	7,103
UK	157,149		21,092		N/A	135,713	1,559	2,315	311	719,910	10,605
Belgium	46,687		7,207		10,878	28,602	903	4,028	622	214,042	18,468
Germany	158,758		6,126		114,500	38,132	2,409	1,895	73	2,072,669	24,738
Iran	91,472		5,806		70,933	14,733	3,011	1,089	69	432,329	5,147
China	82,836	+6	4,633		77,555	648	50	58	3
Brazil	67,446	+945	4,603	+60	31,142	31,701	8,318	317	22	339,552	1,597
Netherlands	38,245		4,518		N/A	33,477	905	2,232	264	193,950	11,319
Turkey	112,261		2,900		33,791	75,570	1,736	1,331	34	918,885	10,895
Canada	48,500		2,707		18,268	27,525	557	1,285	72	733,705	19,440
Sweden	18,926		2,274		1,005	15,647	399	1,874	225	94,500	9,357
Switzerland	29,164		1,665		22,200	5,299	185	3,370	192	245,300	28,343
Mexico	15,529	+852	1,434	+83	9,086	5,009	378	120	11	71,103	551
Ireland	19,648		1,102		9,233	9,313	146	3,979	223	127,319	25,785
India	29,451		939		7,137	21,375		21	0.7	665,819	482
Portugal	24,027		928		1,357	21,742	176	2,356	91	360,155	35,321
Russia	87,147		794		7,346	79,007	2,300	597	5	3,019,434	20,690
Peru	28,699		782		8,425	19,492	598	870	24	239,563	7,266
Indonesia	9,096		765		1,151	7,180		33	3	75,157	275
Ecuador	23,240		663		1,557	21,020	146	1,317	38	61,529	3,487
Romania	11,339		641		3,141	7,557	227	589	33	143,834	7,477
Poland	11,902		562		2,466	8,874	160	314	15	297,859	7,870
Austria	15,274		549		12,362	2,363	140	1,696	61	232,537	25,819
Philippines	7,777		511		932	6,334	31	71	5	89,889	820
Algeria	3,517		432		1,558	1,527	40	80	10	6,500	148
Denmark	8,698		427		5,959	2,312	72	1,502	74	155,810	26,900
Japan	13,614		385		1,899	11,330	300	108	3	150,692	1,191
Egypt	4,782		337		1,236	3,209		47	3	90,000	879
Pakistan	13,915		292		3,029	10,594	111	63	1	150,756	682
Dominican Republic	6,293		282		993	5,018	144	580	26	22,498	2,074
Hungary	2,583		280		498	1,805	61	267	29	65,625	6,793
Colombia	5,597		253		1,210	4,134	118	110	5	90,899	1,786
S. Korea	10,752	+14	244	+1	8,854	1,654	55	210	5	608,514	11,869
Czechia	7,445		223		2,826	4,396	73	695	21	218,474	20,401
Ukraine	9,009		220		864	7,925	110	206	5	93,519	2,138
Norway	7,599		205		32	7,362	52	1,402	38	164,316	30,310
Israel	15,555		204		7,200	8,151	129	1,797	24	302,691	34,971
Chile	13,813		198		7,327	6,288	426	723	10	161,235	8,434
Argentina	4,003		197		1,140	2,666	144	89	4	51,900	1,148
Finland	4,695		193		2,500	2,002	56	847	35	82,437	14,878
Panama	6,021	+242	167	+2	455	5,399	89	1,395	39	27,834	6,451
Serbia	8,275		162		1,209	6,904	85	947	19	67,917	7,773
Morocco	4,120		162		695	3,263	1	112	4	29,254	793
Bangladesh	5,913		152		131	5,630	1	36	0.9	50,401	306
Saudi Arabia	18,811		144		2,531	16,136	117	540	4	200,000	5,745
Greece	2,534		136		577	1,821	43	243	13	66,094	6,341
Moldova	3,481		102		925	2,454	212	863	25	11,763	2,916
Malaysia	5,820		99		3,957	1,764	37	180	3	144,686	4,470
South Africa	4,793		90		1,473	3,230	36	81	2	178,470	3,009
Luxembourg	3,729		88		3,123	518	20	5,957	141	39,102	62,465
Iraq	1,847		88		1,286	473		46	2	73,782	1,834
Australia	6,725	+5	84	+1	5,602	1,039	43	264	3	517,063	20,277
Slovenia	1,402		83		221	1,098	22	674	40	49,607	23,862
UAE	10,839		82		2,090	8,667	1	1,096	8	1,057,326	106,904
Belarus	11,289		75		1,740	9,474	92	1,195	8	153,845	16,281
North Macedonia	1,399		65		553	781	13	672	31	15,120	7,257
Honduras	661		61		79	521	10	67	6	3,643	368
Bosnia and Herzegovina	1,565		60		659	846	4	477	18	26,822	8,175
Croatia	2,039		59		1,166	814	21	497	14	32,817	7,994
Cameroon	1,705		58		805	842	12	64	2
Bulgaria	1,363		58		206	1,099	41	196	8	27,000	3,886
Afghanistan	1,703		57		220	1,426	7	44	1	8,694	223
Cuba	1,389		56		525	808	12	123	5	39,828	3,516
Bolivia	1,014	+64	53	+3	98	863	3	87	5	5,791	496
Thailand	2,931		52		2,609	270	61	42	0.7	178,083	2,551
Estonia	1,647		50		233	1,364	7	1,242	38	48,406	36,491
Burkina Faso	635		42		469	124		30	2
Lithuania	1,449		41		474	934	17	532	15	106,775	39,223
San Marino	538		41		64	433	4	15,856	1,208	2,082	61,360
Nigeria	1,337		40		255	1,042	2	6	0.2	10,918	53
Andorra	743		40		385	318	17	9,616	518	1,673	21,653
Tunisia	967		39		279	649	18	82	3	21,081	1,784
Channel Islands	525		35		352	138		3,020	201	5,342	30,725
Armenia	1,808		29		848	931	10	610	10	18,547	6,259
Niger	701		29		385	287		29	1	5,013	207
Albania	736		28		422	286	4	256	10	7,491	2,603
DRC	459		28		50	381		5	0.3
Somalia	480		26		10	444	2	30	2
Kazakhstan	2,835		25		720	2,090	35	151	1	205,560	10,948
Lebanon	710		24		145	541	44	104	4	29,367	4,303
Mali	408		23		113	272		20	1	2,172	107
Kuwait	3,288		22		1,012	2,254	64	770	5	179,000	41,915
Azerbaijan	1,678		22		1,162	494	15	165	2	128,807	12,704
Sudan	275		22		21	232		6	0.5
Isle of Man	308		20		248	40	22	3,622	235	2,903	34,140
New Zealand	1,472	+3	19		1,214	239	1	305	4	126,066	26,143
Slovakia	1,381		18		403	960	7	253	3	74,099	13,572
Liberia	133	+9	16	+4	25	92		26	3
Cyprus	822		15		148	659	15	681	12	50,220	41,595
Uruguay	620	+14	15		386	219	11	178	4	17,505	5,039
Guatemala	530	+30	15		49	466	5	30	0.8	7,200	402
Singapore	14,423		14		1,095	13,314	20	2,465	2	121,774	20,815
Ivory Coast	1,164		14		499	651		44	0.5
Kenya	363		14		114	235	2	7	0.3	17,992	335
Martinique	175		14		77	84	7	466	37
Latvia	818		13		267	538	5	434	7	49,235	26,103
Diamond Princess	712		13		645	54	4
Sint Maarten	74		13		33	28	7	1,726	303	266	6,204
Guadeloupe	149		12		82	55	11	372	30
Ghana	1,550		11		155	1,384	4	50	0.4	100,622	3,238
Bahamas	80		11		22	47	1	203	28
Qatar	11,244		10		1,066	10,168	72	3,903	3	85,709	29,749
Oman	2,049		10		364	1,675	3	401	2
Iceland	1,792		10		1,624	158	1	5,251	29	46,377	135,906
Mauritius	334		10		302	22	3	263	8	14,445	11,358
Venezuela	329		10		142	177	3	12	0.4	440,966	15,507
Tanzania	299		10		48	241	7	5	0.2
Senegal	736		9		284	443	1	44	0.5	466	28
Paraguay	230	+2	9		95	126	1	32	1	7,925	1,111
Bahrain	2,723		8		1,218	1,497	2	1,600	5	117,374	68,980
Uzbekistan	1,904		8		892	1,004	8	57	0.2	242,536	7,247
Kyrgyzstan	695		8		395	292	13	107	1	45,627	6,994
El Salvador	323		8		89	226	4	50	1	20,109	3,100
Congo	207		8		19	180		38	1
Trinidad and Tobago	116		8		59	49		83	6	1,532	1,095
Guyana	74		8		15	51	5	94	10	464	590
Guinea	1,163		7		246	910		89	0.5
Sri Lanka	588		7		126	455	2	27	0.3	15,240	712
Jordan	449		7		342	100	5	44	0.7	63,737	6,247
Jamaica	364	+14	7		29	328	3	123	2	3,621	1,223
Montenegro	321		7		189	125	7	511	11	5,085	8,096
Costa Rica	697		6		287	404	8	137	1	12,670	2,487
Georgia	497		6		156	335	6	125	2	11,504	2,884
Taiwan	429		6		290	133		18	0.3	61,684	2,590
Bermuda	110		6		44	60	10	1,766	96	1,682	27,008
Togo	98		6		62	30		12	0.7	5,951	719
Barbados	80		6		39	35	4	278	21	1,751	6,093
Haiti	76	+2	6		8	62		7	0.5	776	68
Myanmar	146		5		16	125		3	0.09	6,987	128
Hong Kong	1,038		4		787	247	4	138	0.5	145,640	19,426
Malta	450		4		286	160	1	1,019	9	29,456	66,712
Mayotte	401		4		144	253	4	1,470	15	2,500	9,164
Monaco	95		4		42	49	1	2,421	102
Sierra Leone	93		4		10	79		12	0.5
Zimbabwe	32	+1	4		5	23		2	0.3	6,395	430
Gabon	211		3		43	165	1	95	1	724	325
Ethiopia	124		3		50	71		1	0.03	14,588	127
Zambia	88		3		42	43	1	5	0.2	2,586	141
Syria	43		3		19	21		2	0.2
Saint Martin	38		3		24	11	3	983	78
Malawi	36		3		4	29	1	2	0.2	617	32
Antigua and Barbuda	24		3		11	10	1	245	31	113	1,154
Nicaragua	13		3		7	3		2	0.5

呵呵　

 

[lindamy]

5 min ago
CDC forecast projects 135,461 US coronavirus deaths by July 11
From CNN's Jen Christensen

An ensemble forecast published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now projects 135,461 coronavirus deaths in the United States by July 11, with deaths increasing in nine states.

This week’s national forecast relies on 21 individual forecasts from outside institutions and researchers. The new projections, published Thursday, forecast a possible range of 129,000 to 145,000 deaths.

“The state-level ensemble forecasts suggest that the number of new deaths over the next four weeks in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Hawaii, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, and Utah will likely exceed the number reported over the last four weeks,” the CDC said on its forecasting website.

“For other states, the number of new deaths is expected to be similar or decrease slightly compared to the previous four weeks," the CDC added.

Some context: Unlike some individual models, the CDC’s ensemble forecast only offers projections for the next month.

The previous ensemble forecast, published last Friday, predicted 130,000 deaths from coronavirus in the US by July 4. So far, according to Johns Hopkins University, more than 118,000 people have died in the US.