CDC说:每一个被诊断出冠状病毒的美国人,都会错过10个,这意味着有2000万美国人已被感染。

lindamy

时代广场舞照跳
VIP
注册
2005-11-23
消息
29,975
荣誉分数
7,570
声望点数
373
42 min ago
For every American diagnosed with coronavirus, 10 more were missed, CDC says
From CNN Health’s Maggie Fox


Healthcare workers from University of South Florida (USF) Health administer coronavirus testing at the Lee Davis Community Resource Center in Tampa, Florida on June 25.

Healthcare workers from University of South Florida (USF) Health administer coronavirus testing at the Lee Davis Community Resource Center in Tampa, Florida on June 25. Octavio Jones/Getty Images

The US has probably only counted about 10% of people infected with coronavirus, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Thursday.

The CDC has been looking at antibody tests done across the country to see how many people had past infections that were not diagnosed at the time, and sees many more cases than have been officially reported.

“A good rough estimate now is 10 to 1,” Redfield said in a media briefing.

With more than 2 million official diagnoses, that would mean more than 20 million Americans have been infected.

These numbers are in part because testing was at first limited to people who were very ill and showing up in hospitals or in nursing homes. Now, as more people are getting tested, it’s clear that a large percentage of people did not have any symptoms, or mild symptoms, Redfield said.

“The estimates that we have right now … is that's about 10 times more people have antibody,” Redfield said.

Redfield estimates that between 5% and 8% of Americans have been infected with coronavirus but said that will vary from region to region. New York, which had an intense epidemic, will have a higher percentage of people with past infections than some states in the West, for instance, he said.

But that means 90% or more of Americans have not been infected and are fully susceptible to the virus, he said.
 
有这种可能。那是不是意味着美国很快就达到群体免疫了?
这感染的还不到10%,才2千万,怎么也要大于一半,甚至70%才够吧?何况,这病毒还一直在变。
 
武汉筛查也检测出一大群无症状的。
这病说不定真就像流感一样,致死率实际上低得多。
 
武汉筛查也检测出一大群无症状的。
这病说不定真就像流感一样,致死率实际上低得多。
我记得武汉查了近千万人,只查出几(300+?)百无症状病例。
 
更大潜在风险是人类不知道这病毒会怎么变异
 
所以疫苗可能会部分有效,像流感疫苗一样。
 
也有對群體免疫比較樂觀的數學,目標 43%,但這沒考慮到得病後免疫的比例。

EbUiHi0U4AM8cpd
 
后退
顶部
首页 论坛
消息
我的