arealchinese
新手上路
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- 2003-07-16
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on news that Chinese government has intention to invest as much as US$300M in the first phase of its potash mining project in Thailand. APQ has discovered this huge potash reserve in Thailand in early 90s. The project is yet to start due to political and financial problems.
It has recently cleared almost every political hurdles with the Thai government, who also holds 10% of interests in the project.
The total cost of the first phase project is estimated at US$300M, which will yield a capability of 2M tonne of potash production per annum.
The current potash price is between US$120 to 130 a tonne. APQ's production cost is around $50 per tonne (need double check).
APQ currently has ~ 525M shares fully diluted. Most of shares were from converted debts.
All kinds of feasibility studies have been completed. The total reserve measures about 300M tonnes, i.e. 20 years of production at 15M tonne per annum.
Assuming 10M full production (in 5 years or 10 years?) a year and a gross profit of $50/tonne, that translates into $500M gross profit a year. Applying a 20 times P/E, we get US$10B market cap, i.e. $20/share. However, that assumes the ideal condition.
My near term (1 - 2 years) target is $2 to $5 and long term target of $10.
It has recently cleared almost every political hurdles with the Thai government, who also holds 10% of interests in the project.
The total cost of the first phase project is estimated at US$300M, which will yield a capability of 2M tonne of potash production per annum.
The current potash price is between US$120 to 130 a tonne. APQ's production cost is around $50 per tonne (need double check).
APQ currently has ~ 525M shares fully diluted. Most of shares were from converted debts.
All kinds of feasibility studies have been completed. The total reserve measures about 300M tonnes, i.e. 20 years of production at 15M tonne per annum.
Assuming 10M full production (in 5 years or 10 years?) a year and a gross profit of $50/tonne, that translates into $500M gross profit a year. Applying a 20 times P/E, we get US$10B market cap, i.e. $20/share. However, that assumes the ideal condition.
My near term (1 - 2 years) target is $2 to $5 and long term target of $10.
