Ottawa covid-19 wastewater surveillance 渥太华covid-19废水监测

[lindamy]

Ottawa covid-19 wastewater surveillance​

The National Capital Region is the first community in Canada to conduct and report daily wastewater readings of SARS-CoV-2 viral signal to help inform its community response in the fight against covid-19, thanks to innovative research from the CHEO Research Institute and the University of Ottawa.

People with covid-19 shed the causative SARS-CoV-2 virus in their stool, regardless of whether they have symptoms, receive a covid-19 test or ever are diagnosed. Thus, in contrast to assessing community covid-19 levels by measuring the number of active cases, which may miss asymptomatic infections as well as be subject to limited test availability, wastewater surveillance consistently captures most of the population with covid-19 given that everyone goes to the washroom. In addition to serving as a valuable confirmatory data source for covid-19 levels, wastewater can also serve as early indicator for possible outbreaks, as described below.

The accuracy and thus reliability of SARS-CoV-2 wastewater testing is improving, as scientists understand more of the role of factors such as differences in sewage systems and laboratory protocols. Nonetheless, we recommend caution when interpreting daily and short-term variation in the viral signal. Covid-19 wastewater signal is helpful when interpreted alongside other covid-19 surveillance measures, taking into consideration the strengths and limitations of each measure.

The three plots below illustrate daily viral covid-19 wastewater signal in Ottawa.

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The next plot illustrates the 7 day mean in daily covid-19 wastewater viral signal. This number is the average of a week’s readings; today and the previous 6 days. Also on the graph are various comparators (e.g. reported daily covid-19 cases, hospitalization census), which can be individually selected by toggling the menu on the right.

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Outbreaks often result in significant increases in the number of covid-19 infection. Wastewater surveillance can help identify, even anticipate such outbreaks; for example, note the 580% increase in signal in mid-July preceding the uptick in covid-19 testing by 3 days in the following plot.

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See the Methods page for more information on how the samples were collected, access to the data, and how the plots were created. The plots are currently for research only and presented to the public for discussion.

You can learn more about wastewater epidemiology and its role in covid-19 surveillance on Ottawa Public Health’s website.

Definitions​

* A 7-day average is generated by averaging the levels from a given day with the three previous and three subsequent days. The average is termed “rolling” as it changes each day.

* For new cases, the reported date is the day the test result is reported by the laboratory. Episode date is the approximate date of covid-19 infection estimated from information available: the date of symptom onset, test date, or the reported date.

* A central question in wastewater epidemiology is determining the proportion of the wastewater that is actually from humans and the proportion that is rain water, snow melt etc. To address this issue, viral copy data is thus normalized using a seasonally stable fecal biomarker; pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV). See methods for more details.

^ Percent change in 7-day average is calculated by comparing the 7-day average (previous day 1 to 7) with a lagged 7-day average (days 8 to 14).

Data to 2020-12-14

Ottawa COVID-19 wastewater surveillance - Ottawa COVID19

613covid.ca

 

[lindamy]

今天出门听广播里说，渥太华最近的疫情控制得比较好，密切监视废水中病毒含量可能起到了很大的作用。

 

[臭农民]

废水中的病毒含量，是可以作为疫情监控的一个考量，如果说监视废水中病毒含量，就可以把疫情控制好，这个逻辑，感觉完全没有受过比较正规的高等教育

 

[007leo]

废水中的病毒含量，是可以作为疫情监控的一个考量，如果说监视废水中病毒含量，就可以把疫情控制好，这个逻辑，感觉完全没有受过比较正规的高等教育

同感

 

[lindamy]

从图中比较，污水中病毒含量曲线，于阳性率最为吻合。新增病例和污水病毒数据的7天变化率也非常吻合。

Episode date：（代表最为接近可能的感染日期，）领先于污水中的病毒数据。

住院人数和活跃病例人数曲线则略微落后于污水数据。

 

[lindamy]

As cases surge elsewhere, Ottawa quietly bucks the trend​

Author of the article:
Elizabeth Payne
Publishing date:
Nov 18, 2020 • Last Updated 28 days ago • 5 minute read

As masks became mandatory on OC Transpo Monday June 15, morning riders of the LRT train at Tunney's Pasture station were wearing them. And for those who forgot, OC Transpo's red vesters were handing out free ones to the public. PHOTO BY JULIE OLIVER /Postmedia

It is a mocking put-down that many in Ottawa have long tried to shake. But being known as the city that fun forgot might not be a bad thing during a global pandemic, it turns out.

At least that is one of the working theories about what is going on with COVID-19 in Ottawa right now: It is a government town whose residents not only work at home in large numbers but are not averse to following rules, if those rules make sense.

Those are among factors that could help explain why Ottawa is quietly bucking a trend that has seen COVID-19 cases surge and health systems become strained in parts of Ontario and across Canada.

Since mid-October, when it was one of three hotspots in the province, Ottawa’s trajectory of COVID-19 cases has dramatically diverged from Toronto’s and Peel’s, where case counts have continued to rise as Ottawa’s have gone down.

The difference was illustrated starkly on Tuesday when Ottawa reported 11 new cases compared to a new high of 569 in Toronto.

Ottawa health officials have been cautious about pronouncing it a trend until now, because case counts don’t tell the whole story of how much COVID-19 there really is in the community. That is especially true now that most asymptomatic people are not getting tested. What is more, hospitalization rates and wastewater tracking have been slower to stabilize in Ottawa than cases would suggest.

Plus, there is no shortage of evidence about how quickly trends can turn around when it comes to COVID-19.

Rolling averages of new cases in different regions of Ontario. PHOTO BY JOHN MICHAEL MCGRATH /TWITTER

“You cannot turn your back on this virus,” warns Dr. Doug Manuel, a physician and senior scientist at The Ottawa Hospital who sits on the Ontario COVID-19 science advisory table. “Our luck can run out.”

But this week, Ottawa’s Medical Officer of Health Dr. Vera Etches agreed that the city is “having some success at turning the curve. It does look like we stopped the rapid rise we saw in October.”

The question she and others are getting asked is: What is Ottawa doing right?

Ottawa, she says, has some characteristics that have probably made a difference in the battle to lower the numbers.

Among them, it is a government city, which has meant that a large proportion of people are able to work from home, as are high-tech and many other workers in the city.

“I think we are privileged in Ottawa more than other cities because we have more people who can work from home.”

Compare that with Peel, one of the hardest hit regions in the province, where there are many large industrial employers with a large number of workers, many of whom take public transit to work.

Ottawa is also affluent compared to many cities, has abundant social supports and green space, said Manuel.

It is tougher to avoid crowds in Toronto and other parts of the GTA.

And, it might just be that Ottawa residents tend to be fairly compliant — to a certain extent. The city has seen its share of gatherings that have resulted in spread of COVID-19.

Despite all that, Ottawa became one of the province’s first hotspots at the beginning of the second wave this fall, with spiking case numbers and some of the biggest institutional outbreaks in the province.

Manuel said that and an earlier small spike in the summer made him question his feeling that Ottawa residents would tend to be compliant about following public health guidelines.

“I thought in Ottawa we could pull it off. (People are) good at following recommendations. It is a government town,” he said.

“I thought I was wrong but now I am thinking maybe I wasn’t that wrong.”

Even now, hospitalization numbers in Ottawa are not as low as case counts suggest they should be. Last week, there were 60 people in hospitals with COVID-19 in Ottawa, close to the city’s peak last spring. Ottawa is in the orange zone, compared to Toronto and other GTA communities that are now in the red zone.

Manuel said he has been obsessively looking at markers beyond the daily case counts to try to better understand the situation in Ottawa.

Ottawa’s wastewater tracking — it is the only city in the province that does it in real time — was slower than cases to begin coming down, but it has, for now. Hospitalizations are still relatively high, but stable.

Manuel credits the work of Etches and Ottawa Public Health for some of the ways the city has managed to keep a lid on transmission, while other cities have not.

Ottawa Public Health conducts public engagement surveys to try to better understand what is going on in the community and has worked to get to the root of what has led to transmissions in some cases. It has released details of spread resulting from several gatherings in the city. In one case, Etches highlighted that infections were resulting from carpools and people socializing before and after team sports.

In a letter to Mayor Jim Watson earlier this month, Etches spelled out in detail how people could live safely, following public health advice, during the pandemic.

Etches said there is no magic formula to slow the spread of the virus, beyond wearing a mask, staying two metres away from people and limiting your contact.

“We all wish there was one effective thing you could do that would be effective everywhere. There is not.”

Manuel said he would like to see hospitalizations and cases go lower for a sustained period of time, as well as recognition that people have to continue what they are doing through the winter.

“You cannot rest on your laurels or think we are doing something that others are not. We have got to figure out a way to sustain this through the winter.”
At a media briefing Tuesday, Etches echoed that caution.

“It is too soon to celebrate,” she said. “We need to keep working at it. We can bring it down. That is the good news here.”

As cases surge elsewhere, Ottawa quietly bucks the trend

But being known as the city that fun forgot might not be a bad thing during a global pandemic, it turns out.

ottawacitizen.com

 

[lindamy]

As cases surge elsewhere, Ottawa quietly bucks the trend​

Author of the article:
Elizabeth Payne
Publishing date:
Nov 18, 2020 • Last Updated 28 days ago • 5 minute read

As masks became mandatory on OC Transpo Monday June 15, morning riders of the LRT train at Tunney's Pasture station were wearing them. And for those who forgot, OC Transpo's red vesters were handing out free ones to the public. PHOTO BY JULIE OLIVER /Postmedia

It is a mocking put-down that many in Ottawa have long tried to shake. But being known as the city that fun forgot might not be a bad thing during a global pandemic, it turns out.

At least that is one of the working theories about what is going on with COVID-19 in Ottawa right now: It is a government town whose residents not only work at home in large numbers but are not averse to following rules, if those rules make sense.

Those are among factors that could help explain why Ottawa is quietly bucking a trend that has seen COVID-19 cases surge and health systems become strained in parts of Ontario and across Canada.

Since mid-October, when it was one of three hotspots in the province, Ottawa’s trajectory of COVID-19 cases has dramatically diverged from Toronto’s and Peel’s, where case counts have continued to rise as Ottawa’s have gone down.

The difference was illustrated starkly on Tuesday when Ottawa reported 11 new cases compared to a new high of 569 in Toronto.

Ottawa health officials have been cautious about pronouncing it a trend until now, because case counts don’t tell the whole story of how much COVID-19 there really is in the community. That is especially true now that most asymptomatic people are not getting tested. What is more, hospitalization rates and wastewater tracking have been slower to stabilize in Ottawa than cases would suggest.

Plus, there is no shortage of evidence about how quickly trends can turn around when it comes to COVID-19.

浏览附件946951

Rolling averages of new cases in different regions of Ontario. PHOTO BY JOHN MICHAEL MCGRATH /TWITTER

“You cannot turn your back on this virus,” warns Dr. Doug Manuel, a physician and senior scientist at The Ottawa Hospital who sits on the Ontario COVID-19 science advisory table. “Our luck can run out.”

But this week, Ottawa’s Medical Officer of Health Dr. Vera Etches agreed that the city is “having some success at turning the curve. It does look like we stopped the rapid rise we saw in October.”

The question she and others are getting asked is: What is Ottawa doing right?

Ottawa, she says, has some characteristics that have probably made a difference in the battle to lower the numbers.

Among them, it is a government city, which has meant that a large proportion of people are able to work from home, as are high-tech and many other workers in the city.

“I think we are privileged in Ottawa more than other cities because we have more people who can work from home.”

Compare that with Peel, one of the hardest hit regions in the province, where there are many large industrial employers with a large number of workers, many of whom take public transit to work.

Ottawa is also affluent compared to many cities, has abundant social supports and green space, said Manuel.

It is tougher to avoid crowds in Toronto and other parts of the GTA.

And, it might just be that Ottawa residents tend to be fairly compliant — to a certain extent. The city has seen its share of gatherings that have resulted in spread of COVID-19.

Despite all that, Ottawa became one of the province’s first hotspots at the beginning of the second wave this fall, with spiking case numbers and some of the biggest institutional outbreaks in the province.

Manuel said that and an earlier small spike in the summer made him question his feeling that Ottawa residents would tend to be compliant about following public health guidelines.

“I thought in Ottawa we could pull it off. (People are) good at following recommendations. It is a government town,” he said.

“I thought I was wrong but now I am thinking maybe I wasn’t that wrong.”

Even now, hospitalization numbers in Ottawa are not as low as case counts suggest they should be. Last week, there were 60 people in hospitals with COVID-19 in Ottawa, close to the city’s peak last spring. Ottawa is in the orange zone, compared to Toronto and other GTA communities that are now in the red zone.

Manuel said he has been obsessively looking at markers beyond the daily case counts to try to better understand the situation in Ottawa.

Ottawa’s wastewater tracking — it is the only city in the province that does it in real time — was slower than cases to begin coming down, but it has, for now. Hospitalizations are still relatively high, but stable.

Manuel credits the work of Etches and Ottawa Public Health for some of the ways the city has managed to keep a lid on transmission, while other cities have not.

Ottawa Public Health conducts public engagement surveys to try to better understand what is going on in the community and has worked to get to the root of what has led to transmissions in some cases. It has released details of spread resulting from several gatherings in the city. In one case, Etches highlighted that infections were resulting from carpools and people socializing before and after team sports.

In a letter to Mayor Jim Watson earlier this month, Etches spelled out in detail how people could live safely, following public health advice, during the pandemic.

Etches said there is no magic formula to slow the spread of the virus, beyond wearing a mask, staying two metres away from people and limiting your contact.

“We all wish there was one effective thing you could do that would be effective everywhere. There is not.”

Manuel said he would like to see hospitalizations and cases go lower for a sustained period of time, as well as recognition that people have to continue what they are doing through the winter.

“You cannot rest on your laurels or think we are doing something that others are not. We have got to figure out a way to sustain this through the winter.”
At a media briefing Tuesday, Etches echoed that caution.

“It is too soon to celebrate,” she said. “We need to keep working at it. We can bring it down. That is the good news here.”

As cases surge elsewhere, Ottawa quietly bucks the trend

But being known as the city that fun forgot might not be a bad thing during a global pandemic, it turns out.

ottawacitizen.com

这篇文章写于11月中，文章中说当时的住院人数大约为60人，现在是23人，ICU2人，渥太华的疫情在逐渐趋于缓和。

 

[chicago666]

也就今天这数降下来了，说趋于缓和为时尚早

 

[lindamy]

也就今天这数降下来了，说趋于缓和为时尚早

算是心愿吧，从下图中看，10月初每日新增达到100以上，到11月中在50左右，现在的确是进展很缓慢，时常出现波动。

 

[RareEarth]

大爷大妈凑合着过。坏也坏不到那里去，好也好不到那里去，对年轻人求学求职影响太大了

 

[lindamy]

广播里说感恩节一个6人的家庭小型聚会，现在4人住院，两个上呼吸机。

 

[说不说]

渥太华真算是很幸运的，可是还要看圣诞，听说好多不同城市包括国外的人都回家了，圣诞以后会不会还保持是个问题。国家没有有效的力度，只是口头建议大家不要聚集，很不管用的。看看FACEBOOK上面多少人从欧洲，美国等回加拿大就知道了