ZT Delta搅局 牛津疫苗学家:群体免疫已不可能

lindamy

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Delta搅局 牛津疫苗学家:群体免疫已不可能​

编译张君尧/即时报导 2021-08-10 23:01

专门研究疫苗的「牛津疫苗小组」负责人表示,目前的Delta病毒株「不可能」实现群体免疫。(Getty Images)


专门研究疫苗的「牛津疫苗小组」负责人表示,目前的Delta病毒株「不可能」实现群体免疫。(Getty Images)
专门研究疫苗的「牛津疫苗小组」(Oxford Vaccine Group)负责人表示,目前的Delta病毒株「不可能」实现群体免疫。

「卫报」报导,「牛津疫苗小组」负责人波拉德教授(Andrew Pollard)10日向国会议员提供证据时表示,疫苗并没有阻止新冠肺炎传播的这一事实意味着先前「达到人群整体免疫力的门槛是神话般的想像」。

波拉德教授指出「这种病毒的问题在于它不像麻疹,如果95%的人接种麻疹疫苗,病毒就不会在人群中传播,但是Delta病毒株仍会感染已接种疫苗的人,这确实意味着在任意时刻、仍未接种疫苗的人都有可能感染病毒,我们没有任何东西可以完全阻止这种传播」。

尽管现有疫苗在预防严重的新冠病毒引发的疾病或死亡方面非常有效,但它们并不能防止完全接种疫苗的人感染新冠病毒。群体免疫的概念依赖于绝大多数人口获得免疫力,无论是通过接种疫苗还是受到感染。

伦敦帝国理工学院最近进行的研究数据表明,与未接种疫苗的人相比,18至64岁且完全接种疫苗的人被感染的风险降低约49%。调查结果还表明,完全接种疫苗的人在与新冠感染者接触后检测呈阳性的可能性要低三倍,代表疫苗仍有其效用。

目前英国卫生大臣贾维德(Sajid Javid))10日表示,计划从下个月开始向英国最脆弱的群体提供新冠加强疫苗注射,但同时身兼「疫苗接种和免疫联合委员会」(JCVI)主席的波拉德教授质疑是否有此需求,他表示「即使疫苗引起的抗体水平下降,人们的免疫系统可能会记住接种疫苗几十年,并在接触病毒时提供一定程度的保护」,并强调「所以现在没有任何理由恐慌,我们没有看到突破性严重疾病的问题」。

 

lindamy

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Delta variant has wrecked hopes of herd immunity, warn scientists​


Sarah Knapton
Tue., August 10, 2021, 11:59 a.m.·4 min read

1628734143207.png

Scientists have called for an end to mass testing so Britain can start to live with Covid - Jason Alden/ Bloomberg

The delta variant has wrecked any chance of herd immunity, a panel of experts including the head of the Oxford vaccine team said as they called for an end to mass testing so Britain can start to live with Covid.

Scientists said it was time to accept that there was no way of stopping the virus spreading through the entire population, and monitoring people with mild symptoms was no longer helpful.

Prof Andrew Pollard, who led the Oxford vaccine team, said it was clear that the delta variant could infect people who had been vaccinated, which made herd immunity impossible to reach even with high vaccine uptake.

It comes as Angela Merkel became the first major world leader to announce the end of free testing, with the provision set to stop in Germany from Oct 11.

On Tuesday, the Department of Health confirmed that more than three quarters of adults have now received both jabs, and calculated that 60,000 deaths and 66,900 hospitalisations had been prevented by vaccination. But experts said it would never be enough to stop Covid from spreading.

Speaking to the all-party parliamentary group on Covid, Sir Andrew said: "Anyone who is still unvaccinated will, at some point, meet the virus.

"We don't have anything that will stop transmission, so I think we are in a situation where herd immunity is not a possibility and I suspect the virus will throw up a new variant that is even better at infecting vaccinated individuals."

Until recently, it was hoped that increasing the number of Britons jabbed would create a ring of protection around the population. As late as last week, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation said one of the reasons it had advised that 16 and 17-year-olds should be vaccinated was because it may help prevent a winter Covid wave.

However, analysis by Public Health England has shown that when vaccinated people catch the virus they have a similar viral load to unvaccinated individuals and may be as infectious.

Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia and an expert in infectious diseases, told the committee: "The concept of herd immunity is unachievable because we know the infection will spread in unvaccinated populations and the latest data is suggesting that two doses is probably only 50 percent protective against infection."

Prof Hunter, who advises the World Health Organisation on Covid, also said it was time to change the way the data was collected and recorded as the virus became endemic.

"We need to start moving away from just reporting infections, or just reporting positive cases admitted to hospital, to actually start reporting the number of people who are ill because of Covid," he added. "Otherwise we are going to be frightening ourselves with very high numbers that actually don't translate into disease burden."

On Tuesday, Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, confirmed that third dose booster shots would be given from next month. However, Sir Andrew argued that, if mass testing was not stopped, Britain could be in a situation of continually vaccinating the population.

"I think as we look at the adult population going forward, if we continue to chase community testing and are worried about those results, we're going to end up in a situation where we're constantly boosting to try and deal with something which is not manageable," he said.

"It needs to be moving to clinically driven testing in which people are willing to get tested and treated and managed, rather than lots of community testing. If someone is unwell they should be tested, but for their contacts, if they're not unwell then it makes sense for them to be in school and being educated."
Dr Ruchi Sinha, consultant paediatrician at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, told MPs and peers that choosing not to vaccinate children would be unlikely to cause problems in the health service.

"What matters is the burden of patient hospitalisation and critical care and actually there hasn't been as much with this delta variant," she said. "They tend to be the children who have got their comorbidities, obesity, or severe neurological problems and those children are already considered for vaccination. Covid on its own in paediatrics is not the problem."

 

阿土仔

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开一把脑洞,赶紧溯源!也许始作俑者手里有解药也说不定 ...... :evil:
 

billwanhua

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那么问题来了:
新研制的疫苗三期实验需要有效率还是防重症率?如果是防止传染的有效率,那么多长时间?历史上其他疫苗都研究多年,而covid疫苗研究了半年速成,肯定还有进步空间。
 

冷声1声

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群体免疫宣布失败?
与病毒共存还靠谱吗?
 

RareEarth

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开一把脑洞,赶紧溯源!也许始作俑者手里有解药也说不定 ...... :evil:

生化技术是所有技术门类中,米国领先中国最多的,差不多 20-30年的距离。
不要怀疑米国生化技术的领先程度。也不要幻想落后米国很多的国家能搞出这种东东。
溯源找解药,你都得去找米国。不然都是缘木求鱼。
 

RareEarth

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Delta搅局 牛津疫苗学家:群体免疫已不可能​

编译张君尧/即时报导 2021-08-10 23:01

专门研究疫苗的「牛津疫苗小组」负责人表示,目前的Delta病毒株「不可能」实现群体免疫。(Getty Images)


专门研究疫苗的「牛津疫苗小组」负责人表示,目前的Delta病毒株「不可能」实现群体免疫。(Getty Images)
专门研究疫苗的「牛津疫苗小组」(Oxford Vaccine Group)负责人表示,目前的Delta病毒株「不可能」实现群体免疫。

「卫报」报导,「牛津疫苗小组」负责人波拉德教授(Andrew Pollard)10日向国会议员提供证据时表示,疫苗并没有阻止新冠肺炎传播的这一事实意味着先前「达到人群整体免疫力的门槛是神话般的想像」。

波拉德教授指出「这种病毒的问题在于它不像麻疹,如果95%的人接种麻疹疫苗,病毒就不会在人群中传播,但是Delta病毒株仍会感染已接种疫苗的人,这确实意味着在任意时刻、仍未接种疫苗的人都有可能感染病毒,我们没有任何东西可以完全阻止这种传播」。

尽管现有疫苗在预防严重的新冠病毒引发的疾病或死亡方面非常有效,但它们并不能防止完全接种疫苗的人感染新冠病毒。群体免疫的概念依赖于绝大多数人口获得免疫力,无论是通过接种疫苗还是受到感染。

伦敦帝国理工学院最近进行的研究数据表明,与未接种疫苗的人相比,18至64岁且完全接种疫苗的人被感染的风险降低约49%。调查结果还表明,完全接种疫苗的人在与新冠感染者接触后检测呈阳性的可能性要低三倍,代表疫苗仍有其效用。

目前英国卫生大臣贾维德(Sajid Javid))10日表示,计划从下个月开始向英国最脆弱的群体提供新冠加强疫苗注射,但同时身兼「疫苗接种和免疫联合委员会」(JCVI)主席的波拉德教授质疑是否有此需求,他表示「即使疫苗引起的抗体水平下降,人们的免疫系统可能会记住接种疫苗几十年,并在接触病毒时提供一定程度的保护」,并强调「所以现在没有任何理由恐慌,我们没有看到突破性严重疾病的问题」。


如果用防重症和死亡作为标准,很多国家已经实现了阶段性的群体免疫。
 

阿土仔

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生化技术是所有技术门类中,米国领先中国最多的,差不多 20-30年的距离。
不要怀疑米国生化技术的领先程度。也不要幻想落后米国很多的国家能搞出这种东东。
溯源找解药,你都得去找米国。不然都是缘木求鱼。
解铃还需系铃人,这破独门解药的事就更难说了。:evil:
 
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RareEarth

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解铃还需系铃人,这破独门解药的事就更难说了。:evil:
没出道的小辈练成绝世武功,你金庸太看多了 :tx:
 
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阿土仔

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没出道的小辈练成绝世武功,你金庸太看多了 :tx:
错了!这是古龙的路子!:D

不过搞成七心海棠的还是程灵素,这是金庸的!
 
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