Vaxx Populi: Omicron has a higher effective reproduction number than Delta, so can vaccines protect against more hospitalizations and deaths? Time will tell.
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Trevor Bedford, a scientist who studies the evolution of viruses at Fred Hutch in Seattle, detailed the origins and path of Omicron in a
long Twitter thread:
“Omicron appears to have emerged around Oct. 1 and has taken eight weeks of exponential growth to ‘suddenly’ have sizable impacts on case counts and hospitalizations in Gauteng. This ‘suddenly’ is the nature of exponential growth.”
The variant has spread around the world, sparking local outbreaks. “
As a broad analogy, if it took [roughly] 8 weeks for Omicron to grow from initial spark into local epidemic in South Africa, I would expect very roughly 8 weeks from today for secondary epidemics to begin to manifest,”
he stated.
Now, more and more, public health authorities are reporting such secondary outbreaks. In Norway, more than a dozen people who contracted COVID-19 at a Christmas party on Nov. 26 have the Omicron variant even though they were all fully vaccinated and tested before the event. Cases have been mild to date, with no hospitalizations,
CNN reports. Meanwhile after a party of 150 high school students in Denmark,
at least 50 are now Omicron positive.
In Britain, “one in 200 people testing positive in London last week are likely to have had Omicron,”
explained Theo Sanderson, the Sir Henry Wellcome Fellow at the Francis Crick Institute in London, after combing through the latest
technical briefing on variants from the UK Health Security Agency (formerly Public Health England), released on Dec. 3.
还是听专家的话吧，一般传染到检测需要8周，Omicron appears to have emerged around Oct. 1 and has taken eight weeks of exponential growth to ‘suddenly’ have sizable impacts， 8周后肯定全世界都有了，然后全世界又要8周才能发现新爆发“
As a broad analogy, if it took [roughly] 8 weeks for Omicron to grow from initial spark into local epidemic in South Africa, I would expect very roughly 8 weeks from today for secondary epidemics to begin to manifest,”
等到一月低再看看。这就是为什么封锁从来不是好办法，因为2个月病人早都跑到世界各地了。
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