1) Today's stock markets
Mark Twain said, “History doesn't repeat Itself, but It often rhymes.” The stock markets are unpredictable. Studying its history sometimes can give us some reflection of what happened in history with similar market numbers. Here is stock market high-low-close data.
i) DJIA happened four times in the past 35 years:
ii) S&P 500 since 1977:
At today's low, the S&P was down 3.99% Historically, recovering from an intraday loss of more than 3.98% three times since in 1977, Jan 24, 2024 (today); Oct 16, 2008- down -4.63% and closed up 4.25%; Oct 23, 2008 - down -4.28% and closed up 1.26%.
I just present those historical dates and any CFCer who reads it thinks about it himself herself). I have no comments on this year market return,
2) Investing or speculating
《城南旧事》的英子, "我分不清海和天"; CFCer," 我分不清 投资和投机". Read CFC 美股崩 post today, I finally realized that at least 90% CFCers who posted his comments in 美股崩 are not stock market investors, they may think they are because 投资和投机 in Chinese only one-word difference. Don't get me wrong, there is nothing wrong to speculate in the stock market. I understood the guy who threw in an order of $100,000 into VFV.TO might be thinking about going on the long term if the market went down. However, some guy bet on Trump winning the presidential election for the market up or bet a large amount of money on small junior oil stock both were completely speculation. It is not my business, but if those guys kept doing it like that, they would lose their wife's boyfriend's gift money one day. Here kind reminder with my post on January 20, 2022, For those guerrilla stock traders, this is like a typical stock market:
3) Housing Market
Housing prices are going bananas since summer 2020. In this madness of the housing market, Housing data, either from OECD, the Canadian government, CHMC, or other financial institutions all point to Canada housing, particularly Toronto, are way short of supply, True, no one disagrees that not enough new houses built and old houses listed in the market! However, It is not hard to imagine that when the real rate is negative, no one cares about maintenance cost or tenant headaches. Besides, people watch their properties prices are going up every month year by year, who want to sell a keep winning investment. Even reached downsize aged boomers have to think about why sell t today if price going up tomorrow.
Is the housing price going to the moon?
There are a lot of factors affecting the housing price. I am deeply aware that CFCers inherited a DNA of love buying properties from their ancestors, and they know about the housing market more than I do. Here are my two cents: Dependent on the economic conditions, one person can live in a 4-bed rooms house in a prosperous economic environment, and 4 people have to live in a one-bedroom apartment sometimes. When the recession comes and people lose their job and on unemployment benefits, they have to crowd in a smaller living place, and grownup children may live with their parents if they can't find jobs. This circumstance happens, particularly in a protracted economic downturn.
We only have had one protracted recession in the past 30 years and a lot of CFCers probably have not lived in this country yet. They probably don't know what it looked like, and I don't know whether they will see one in their lifetime given central banks can print money now when the economy goes through its cycle down to a contraction before a severe recession hits.
Think about a little further, people are unwilling to sell their winning properties now, I don't know what could happen when property price starts going down one day.
Note: There are two recessions since 1990 in Canada (except covid-19 2020): one from 03/1990 to 04/1992 lasted 25 months ( peak/trough); another short one from 10/2008 to 05/2009 lasted only 7 months ( peak/trough). The early 90s recession recovery took quite long. I saw a lot of beggars in Young street in Toronto when I toured Niagara Falls via Toronto in late 1995.
Mark Twain said, “History doesn't repeat Itself, but It often rhymes.” The stock markets are unpredictable. Studying its history sometimes can give us some reflection of what happened in history with similar market numbers. Here is stock market high-low-close data.
i) DJIA happened four times in the past 35 years:
ii) S&P 500 since 1977:
At today's low, the S&P was down 3.99% Historically, recovering from an intraday loss of more than 3.98% three times since in 1977, Jan 24, 2024 (today); Oct 16, 2008- down -4.63% and closed up 4.25%; Oct 23, 2008 - down -4.28% and closed up 1.26%.
I just present those historical dates and any CFCer who reads it thinks about it himself herself). I have no comments on this year market return,
2) Investing or speculating
《城南旧事》的英子, "我分不清海和天"; CFCer," 我分不清 投资和投机". Read CFC 美股崩 post today, I finally realized that at least 90% CFCers who posted his comments in 美股崩 are not stock market investors, they may think they are because 投资和投机 in Chinese only one-word difference. Don't get me wrong, there is nothing wrong to speculate in the stock market. I understood the guy who threw in an order of $100,000 into VFV.TO might be thinking about going on the long term if the market went down. However, some guy bet on Trump winning the presidential election for the market up or bet a large amount of money on small junior oil stock both were completely speculation. It is not my business, but if those guys kept doing it like that, they would lose their wife's boyfriend's gift money one day. Here kind reminder with my post on January 20, 2022, For those guerrilla stock traders, this is like a typical stock market:
3) Housing Market
Housing prices are going bananas since summer 2020. In this madness of the housing market, Housing data, either from OECD, the Canadian government, CHMC, or other financial institutions all point to Canada housing, particularly Toronto, are way short of supply, True, no one disagrees that not enough new houses built and old houses listed in the market! However, It is not hard to imagine that when the real rate is negative, no one cares about maintenance cost or tenant headaches. Besides, people watch their properties prices are going up every month year by year, who want to sell a keep winning investment. Even reached downsize aged boomers have to think about why sell t today if price going up tomorrow.
Is the housing price going to the moon?
There are a lot of factors affecting the housing price. I am deeply aware that CFCers inherited a DNA of love buying properties from their ancestors, and they know about the housing market more than I do. Here are my two cents: Dependent on the economic conditions, one person can live in a 4-bed rooms house in a prosperous economic environment, and 4 people have to live in a one-bedroom apartment sometimes. When the recession comes and people lose their job and on unemployment benefits, they have to crowd in a smaller living place, and grownup children may live with their parents if they can't find jobs. This circumstance happens, particularly in a protracted economic downturn.
We only have had one protracted recession in the past 30 years and a lot of CFCers probably have not lived in this country yet. They probably don't know what it looked like, and I don't know whether they will see one in their lifetime given central banks can print money now when the economy goes through its cycle down to a contraction before a severe recession hits.
Think about a little further, people are unwilling to sell their winning properties now, I don't know what could happen when property price starts going down one day.
Note: There are two recessions since 1990 in Canada (except covid-19 2020): one from 03/1990 to 04/1992 lasted 25 months ( peak/trough); another short one from 10/2008 to 05/2009 lasted only 7 months ( peak/trough). The early 90s recession recovery took quite long. I saw a lot of beggars in Young street in Toronto when I toured Niagara Falls via Toronto in late 1995.
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