Breaking news---Bank of Canada holds interest rate at 0.25% & No Surprise from US Fed

[贾和平]

The US Fed as per the market expected

*Fed Will Complete Monthly Bond-Buying Taper In Early March

*It Will Soon Be Appropriate To Raise Fed Funds Rate

No mention of balance sheet shrink. But I am sure J Powell will be asked in press conference.

 

[贾和平]

POWELL DOESN'T RULE OUT RAISING RATES AT EVERY FOMC MEETING. FED CHAIRMAN J POWELL: HIGH INFLATION NOW SPREADS MORE BROADLY.

Yep! My girl's shape now spreads more broadly too.

 

[Littlecesar]

The US Fed as per the market expected

*Fed Will Complete Monthly Bond-Buying Taper In Early March

*It Will Soon Be Appropriate To Raise Fed Funds Rate

No mention of balance sheet shrink. But I am sure J Powell will be asked in press conference.

What’s the timeline BoC will fully stop monthly bond-buying? I didn’t see it in today’s announcement.

 

[贾和平]

What’s the timeline BoC will fully stop monthly bond-buying? I didn’t see it in today’s announcement.

BofC stopped buying last year ( in August or Sept?). When any purchased bond matured and BofC gets paid the bond principal and due interests, BofC will buy a new bond again with that money. There is no balance sheet reduction plan yet as BofC statement today ( I indicated in my 2nd post above).

The balance sheet reduction means when the bond held by central banks matured, they won't buy it with money paid by the bond issuer ( treasury) anymore. I guess it is called 货币回笼 in Chinese ( not quite sure).

The US Fed is still buying but it will reach zero in early-mid March, then raise rates at the end of March. 0.25% interest raise in late March in both the US and Canada are in the bag, and 3 times this year very very likely, and possible 4 times to reach 1% at end of 2022.

1% interest rate rise has little impact on anyone, but don't overenjoy the low rate. The balance sheet reduction could bring the bond yield higher eg the prime interest rate higher. I don't know Canada's number yet. The US has 2T bonds in Fed's hand will be matured in 2022 to 2023. Of course, The Fed can't reduce it all in these 2 years. Otherwise, the economy, including the housing and the stock markets, will be nuked by this 2T.

 

[ccc]

美联储也没加息。

 

[贾和平]

美联储同时发表了有关缩减资产负债表的另一个声明，说要“ significantly reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet”。这是声明的链接：

Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet

The Federal Open Market Committee agreed that it is appropriate at this time to provide information regarding its planned approach for significantly reducing t

www.federalreserve.gov

1) My post you quoted was talking about the FMOC meeting statement, which had no mention of reducing the balance sheet at all. Please see Press Release: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

2) You said " 美联储同时发表了有关缩减资产负债表的另一个声明，说要“ significantly reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet” in your post.

This is incorrect! You unintentionally, I believe, mislead that the Fed 要“ significantly reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet”.

The Fed did have another Press Release today: Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, which you linked in your post.
However, it said. " The Federal Open Market Committee agreed that it is appropriate at this time to provide information regarding its planned approach for significantly reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet."

3) The Fed will reduce its balance sheet, which was discussed in the Fed December meeting but it won't happen until at least 2 rate hikes. Chairman Powell clearly stated in his press conference that the Fed will communicate in advance when the time of reducing balance sheet approaches.

​

 

[贾和平]

“说要‘significantly reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet’“ vs. "its planned approach for significantly reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet."：有什么问题吗？怎么到了你嘴里就成了“mislead”？吹毛求疵，莫名其妙。

I said in para #3 in my post that the Fed mentioned that it would reduce its balance sheet in the previous meeting in December 2021. Everybody is aware that when talking about the Fed meeting, people are talking about the Fed monetary policy between now and the next meeting because the Fed policy release affects the economic condition in that period.

"...有什么问题吗?" There is a significant difference between the Fed 说要“significantly reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet." and the Fed just releases the Principles for Reducing Balance sheet after the meeting. You did not read the Fed Press Release closely and miscomprehended the release of Fed's Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet as though the Fed 说要“significantly reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet." I suggest you open your link and read every line in it to see what the Fed actually said if you still think you are right.

As a matter of the fact, it was you responding to my post with incorrect information. I regarded your post as in good faith and politely used the word "unintentionally mislead" and corrected it with facts. Whereas you did not acknowledge the facts or let it go, instead you accused me " 吹毛求疵，莫名其妙"! I will have to reply to you with "莫名其妙" was you!

 

[billwanhua]

美联储同时发表了有关缩减资产负债表的另一个声明，说要“ significantly reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet”。这是声明的链接：

Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet

The Federal Open Market Committee agreed that it is appropriate at this time to provide information regarding its planned approach for significantly reducing t

www.federalreserve.gov

每个人看的重点不一样， 这个链接虽然表面上说 ”for significantly reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.“ 但是个人觉得重点是”it is appropriate at this time to provide information“， 意思是说目前更合适的是提出有关未来significantly reducing的信息：

”planned approach“ 也很有意思，意思是一直以来都计划的（planned 过去时）

然后底下一堆bullet points都在解释未来怎么操作：
比喻这个 The Committee will determine the timing and pace of reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet so as to promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.， 基本上就是跟significantly reducing矛盾，意思是根据就业和稳定来决定什么样时候和程度（timing and pace of reducing）

The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts 这个也是笑话， a predictable manner 也是跟significantly reducing 矛盾

美联储迟早把泡泡吹爆不可

Federal Reserve puts wheels in motion for balance sheet reduction

The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released minutes from its Dec. 14-15 meeting.

www.cnbc.com

这个是上次会议说法，这次增加了一个significant：

The Federal Reserve at its December meeting began plans to start cutting the amount of bonds it is holding, with members saying that a reduction in the balance sheet likely will start sometime after the central bank begins raising interest rates, according to minutes released Wednesday.

While officials did not make any determination about when the Fed will start rolling off the nearly $8.3 trillion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities it is holding, statements out of the meeting indicated that process could begin in 2022, possibly in the next several months.

"Almost all participants agreed that it would likely be appropriate to initiate balance sheet runoff at some point after the first increase in the target range for the federal funds rate," the meeting summary stated

 

[茶马盐铁]

据说, 要开始疯狂开放移民大门了.

据说, 要开始疯狂开放移民大门了.

据说, 要开始疯狂开放移民大门了.

大家准备好了, 该投资房产的,别再浪费机会了.

这招,确实是目前自由党能够使用的唯一招数.

即解决的劳动力短缺,大辞职,大灭绝的问题
又解决了房地产泡沫的填充
同时, 解决未来人口问题.

问题是.

别的西方国家也会想到的,也会开放的,

抢得过别人才行.

好歹我感觉, 加拿大比当下的美国更有吸引力.

拉倒吧，现在穷人都在往美国跑，即使暂时沦落加拿大也宁愿冒着严寒往美国跑。

富人都在往中国跑。生怕错过了财富盛筵。

谁愿意来加拿大？

 

[billwanhua]

我觉得”planned approach“中的“”planned”不是过去时，而是动词被动语态用作approach的修饰词，起形容词的作用。

同意每个人理解不一样，可能美联储就是希望这样。
我的理解，如果形容词也可以用planning

 

[贵圈]

拉倒吧，现在穷人都在往美国跑，即使暂时沦落加拿大也宁愿冒着严寒往美国跑。

富人都在往中国跑。生怕错过了财富盛筵。

谁愿意来加拿大？

someone in between 啊

 

[茶马盐铁]

someone in between 啊

no one is in between.

认为自己有钱的， 就去中国了；
觉得自己穷的， 就去美国了。

每个人群都会分成两类人， 一类认为自己有钱， 一类认为没钱。

 

[贵圈]

哈哈。小年轻。黑白看世界

 

[贾和平]

我当然仔细读过了原文。这是我第一次注意到美联储用了“significantly”一词来表达缩减资产负债表的规模，觉得这一点非常重要，所以我说了他们“说要' significantly reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet'”。为避免翻译上的误解，我特意引用了文中的英文原文并给出了原文的链接，这怎么就成了“incorrect information", 成了”midlead"?

如果你想强调这份声明是要阐述缩减资产负债表的原则，这也没有问题。不同的两个人分别从两个不同角度研读同一份文件，这再正常不过了。真无法理解有什么好争的。难道每一个人都必须按照你的角度和标准来谈一封文件才可以，否则就是“不正确”和”误导”吗？

这个杠抬得真是莫名其妙，毫无意义。

1. 我觉得”planned approach“中的“”planned”不是过去时，而是动词被动语态用作approach的修饰词，起形容词的作用。即使理解成过去时，也说明美联储已经计划好了要“significantly reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet”，而且在这个声明中说了出来。

2. “这次增加了一个significant”：这正是我前面说的引起我注意的重点词。

当然，各人可以有自己的解读和重点。由于美联储经常云里雾里地用绕口令的方式说话，即使专业权威人士也经常做出不同的解读。理解不同，可以讨论。但把自己的解读当成真理，把和自己不同的解读或和自己不一样的重点说成是“误导”，是不可取的。

I have repeatedly emphasized the significant difference between " Fed 说要“ significantly reducing the size ..." and "Fed released the Principale of..." in my response posts.

There were two remarkable questions in investors' heads for the Fed's January meeting: one was 0.5% rise? and the other was the balance sheet reduction timeline? If Fed 要“ significantly reducing the size ..." ( as you posted to me), or if Fed had given any indication of imminent balance sheet reduction after easing, the market would have plummeted on the following day. Didn't you think of people, including our fellow CFCers, would be in a panic sale mode given you posted to me right after the Fed meeting that " Fed 说要“ significantly reducing the size ..."?

Don't throw a hat of "把自己的解读当成真理" to me, that was your hat, and lecturing others " 理解不同, 可以讨论。但把自己的解读当成真理，把和自己不同的解读或和自己不一样的重点说成是“误导”，是不可取的。" in CFC are laughing stock.

Nobody accused you of “误导”. you are either unable to comprehend the difference between "misleading" and "unintentionally misleading" or keep trying with separated words to square the circle.

I never waste my valuable time to 杠抬 in any social network. I reinforce my post with two Wallstreet heavy weights' explanations on exactly what we are
disputing in this thread for a conclusion.

The US Fed as per the market expected

*Fed Will Complete Monthly Bond-Buying Taper In Early March

*It Will Soon Be Appropriate To Raise Fed Funds Rate

No mention of balance sheet shrink. But I am sure J Powell will be asked in press conference.

CNBC's Steve Liesman reports right after the Fed meeting:

美联储同时发表了有关缩减资产负债表的另一个声明，说要“ significantly reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet”。这是声明的链接：

Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet

The Federal Open Market Committee agreed that it is appropriate at this time to provide information regarding its planned approach for significantly reducing t

www.federalreserve.gov

Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Charles Schwab on you posted to me "美联储同时发表了有关缩减资产负债表的另一个声明":

 

[ST]

请教一下，现在是否该锁定按揭了？