Royal LePage sees steady gains in local home prices
By Leo Valiquette, Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Thu, Nov 27, 2003 8:00 AM EST
Yet another industry forecast was released on Wednesday that paints a gloomy picture for local residents of modest means trying to buy a house in Ottawa.
Realtor Royal LePage issued its forecast for the coming year, saying it expects home prices in the nation's capital to climb an average of 6.5 per cent in 2004, or by $14,200 to $233,900.
The good news is, that increase is less than what has been forecast in the past month by Re/Max and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. The bad news is that it still makes Ottawa the most inflationary market in the country in terms of house prices.
By comparison, Royal LePage's outlook for the country as a whole forecasts an average increase of 3.2 per cent.
Of the nine cities surveyed, Toronto ranked at the bottom of the list with an expected gain of only one per cent.
Despite increasing prices, activity on the local resale market is expected to decline after several years of record-setting activity. Royal LePage expects the number of resales to fall by 2.5 per cent from this year. Compared to the peak in 2002, that is a decrease of four per cent. However, that still leaves 12,320 homes changing hands, a strong number compared to the historical average.
The one bright spot is that there will be more homes listed for resale, offering buyers more choice.
The reasons behind the persistent strength of the local housing market have been well documented ? steady job growth in both the public and private sectors that has overshadowed the languishing tech sector, strong in-migration, and a higher than average household income.
Pierre de Varennes, an owner/broker with Royal LePage Performance Realty, said the city also has a high proportion of renters, meaning there are many more prospective first-time homebuyers than in the other cities surveyed. About 38 per cent of people in Ottawa are renters, about five or six percentage points higher than the national average.
If resale prices increase as Re/Max expects, Ottawa will hold onto its third-place position among the country's most expensive markets. It will follow Vancouver, at $361,000 and Toronto, at $296,000.
In contrast, the cheapest of the nine markets is Regina, at $106,500.
FOLLOWS OTHER FORECASTS
Royal LePage's forecast follows closely ones released last month by Re/Max and CMHC.
RE/Max has forecast that local resale prices will climb by seven per cent in 2004, down from an estimated nine per cent in 2003. That means an average selling price of $219,000 in 2003 and $234,300 by the end of next year.Re/Max also predicts the number of units sold in 2003 will hit 13,000.
At CMHC, the forecast is for about 12,800 resales in 2004, up from its estimate of 12,500 for 2003. The federal agency sees prices up by nine per cent this year from the end of 2002. Another nine-per-cent increase is expected to follow in 2004.