预测一下2023年的中东局势

[ASSISTANT]

以色列或许空袭伊朗。内他组成最右翼政府。并怀疑伊朗发展核武。以前的地缘障碍叙利亚不再是问题。最主要以色列战机要借道沙特。沙特放必定被伊朗报复。不放以会报复。不管伊朗还是还特倒下对美都可以。中国在中东的战略部署也会受影响
2023年焦点在中东

 

[ASSISTANT]

哈马斯这么大规模的进攻以色列及盟友没有预警不正常。哈马斯不知道打人一拳要等人一脚么。谁在哈马斯身后。是穆斯林。谁在领导穆斯林。是沙特和伊朗。目标很可能是沙特或者伊朗。目的还是石油。或许第六次中东战争甚至三战在中东引爆

 

[知更鸟]

以色列或许空袭伊朗。内他组成最右翼政府。并怀疑伊朗发展核武。以前的地缘障碍叙利亚不再是问题。最主要以色列战机要借道沙特。沙特放必定被伊朗报复。不放以会报复。不管伊朗还是还特倒下对美都可以。中国在中东的战略部署也会受影响
2023年焦点在中东

这还剩2个月，终于焦点到中东了

 

[ASSISTANT]

这还剩2个月，终于焦点到中东了

快到年关了。许下的账要还的。年初内塌糊在忙着改宪法。现在宪法也改了，没托词了。只有干。一步步按照安排好的做

 

[知更鸟]

哈马斯这么大规模的进攻以色列及盟友没有预警不正常。哈马斯不知道打人一拳要等人一脚么。谁在哈马斯身后。是穆斯林。谁在领导穆斯林。是沙特和伊朗。目标很可能是沙特或者伊朗。目的还是石油。或许第六次中东战争甚至三战在中东引爆

你这标点符号写的不对，一句一结，叫人都读不下去

 

[ASSISTANT]

你这标点符号写的不对，一句一结，叫人都读不下去

俺的风格

 

[春夏之交]

以色列或许空袭伊朗。

不要学一些无耻的政客，说这种不确定的预言，因为说了等于没说。

 

[ert0000]

中东如果混乱和战争的话，

最大的受益者是谁？俄罗斯，其次是美国。

中东的战争和混乱不符合中国的利益

 

[ASSISTANT]

不要学一些无耻的政客，说这种不确定的预言，因为说了等于没说。

要打伊朗就要借道沙特。沙特现在立刻与美示好，同意增产全球油价下调。也灭了以色列进攻沙特的口实。或者给以色列打伊朗开了绿灯。问题是什么理由打伊朗。如果有证据表明伊朗支持哈马斯。有的一打。没有那就的创造条件。创造条件就要时间

 

[ASSISTANT]

哈马斯这波操作以没任何察觉。问题是哈马斯想得到什么。土地，那是妄想。谁都知道以会拿回来。以得到了出兵巴勒斯坦的合理理由。可以名正言顺地占领。也有可能继续惩戒支持哈马斯的帮凶。
周瑜打黄盖的双簧也不是没可能

 

[知更鸟]

中东如果混乱和战争的话，

最大的受益者是谁？俄罗斯，其次是美国。

中东的战争和混乱不符合中国的利益

土耳其算一个不？

 

[billwanhua]

中东如果混乱和战争的话，

最大的受益者是谁？俄罗斯，其次是美国。

中东的战争和混乱不符合中国的利益

‘The Middle East Region Is Quieter Today Than It Has Been in Two Decades’

A week ago, Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, sounded optimistic about the region.

www.theatlantic.com

看看美国the atlantic的分析，好像出乎美国意料，打脸了沙利文。

Just eight days ago, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, speaking at The Atlantic Festival, rattled off a long list of positive developments in the Middle East, developments that were allowing the Biden administration to focus on other regions and other problems. A truce was holding in Yemen. Iranian attacks against U.S. forces had stopped. America’s presence in Iraq was “stable.” The good news crescendoed with this statement: “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.”

美国其实也希望中东和平，特别是沙特和以色列和平，美国好安心对待亚洲。如果中东发生战争，美国肯定会比中国介入更深，这个其实是违背美国战略方向的。


Behind this moment are failures of intelligence, but also of imagination. The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has styled himself as “Mr. Security” for decades, will have much to answer for in the coming weeks and months. But Sullivan’s comments, made onstage in Washington to The Atlantic’s editor in chief, Jeffrey Goldberg, also suggest how little sense there was among Biden officials that something like this could happen.

In the coming days, Sullivan’s Pollyannaish view will undoubtedly be subjected to great scrutiny. Hamas, and its Iranian and Hezbollah allies, has not made a secret of its ultimate aims. Beyond wishful thinking, the cause of the hopefulness articulated by Sullivan might be this: the developing deal to establish formal relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia—a developing deal that is most likely developing no more.

文章分析说沙利文又丢脸失算了

 

[ert0000]

土耳其算一个不？

‘The Middle East Region Is Quieter Today Than It Has Been in Two Decades’

A week ago, Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, sounded optimistic about the region.

www.theatlantic.com

看看美国the atlantic的分析，好像出乎美国意料，打脸了沙利文。

Just eight days ago, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, speaking at The Atlantic Festival, rattled off a long list of positive developments in the Middle East, developments that were allowing the Biden administration to focus on other regions and other problems. A truce was holding in Yemen. Iranian attacks against U.S. forces had stopped. America’s presence in Iraq was “stable.” The good news crescendoed with this statement: “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.”

美国其实也希望中东和平，特别是沙特和以色列和平，美国好安心对待亚洲。如果中东发生战争，美国肯定会比中国介入更深，这个其实是违背美国战略方向的。


Behind this moment are failures of intelligence, but also of imagination. The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has styled himself as “Mr. Security” for decades, will have much to answer for in the coming weeks and months. But Sullivan’s comments, made onstage in Washington to The Atlantic’s editor in chief, Jeffrey Goldberg, also suggest how little sense there was among Biden officials that something like this could happen.

In the coming days, Sullivan’s Pollyannaish view will undoubtedly be subjected to great scrutiny. Hamas, and its Iranian and Hezbollah allies, has not made a secret of its ultimate aims. Beyond wishful thinking, the cause of the hopefulness articulated by Sullivan might be this: the developing deal to establish formal relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia—a developing deal that is most likely developing no more.

文章分析说沙利文又丢脸失算了

对美国短期有一点好处，就是又挑动了中东紧张形势，尤其在中国有效调节了沙特和伊朗之后美国被边缘化。有助于中东各国又要请回美国。

但长期对美国不利，美国的长期的战略重点，第一是中国，第二是俄罗斯。中东大打出手，会分流美国的战略资源。

 

[chatbot]

中东如果混乱和战争的话，

最大的受益者是谁？俄罗斯，其次是美国。

中东的战争和混乱不符合中国的利益

中国应该力劝和平啊

 

[welcomelm]

对美国短期有一点好处，就是又挑动了中东紧张形势，尤其在中国有效调节了沙特和伊朗之后美国被边缘化。有助于中东各国又要请回美国。

但长期对美国不利，美国的长期的战略重点，第一是中国，第二是俄罗斯。中东大打出手，会分流美国的战略资源。

以色列可不死乌克兰，这点小事它自己可以搞定，美国顶多请报上支持一下