美空军上将备忘录预测2025年与中国开战 凸显美国文职和军方领导人的分歧

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US General predicts war with China within two years​


Robert Dex
Sat, January 28, 2023 at 11:25 a.m. EST·2 min read

Taiwanese tanks take part in a drill  (AP)

Taiwanese tanks take part in a drill (AP)

A four-star US general has predicted the country will be at war with China within the next two years.

General Mike Minihan, who heads the US Air Force’s Air Mobility Command wrote in a letter to fellow officers: “I hope I am wrong.

“My gut tells me will fight in 2025.”

The general’s views show concern at the highest levels of the U.S. military over a possible attempt by China to exert control over Taiwan, which China claims as a territory.

A couple takes a selfie picture with Taipei 101 building in the background from the Bidhanyen Taoist Temple in Taipei to mark the lunar new year (AFP via Getty Images)

A couple takes a selfie picture with Taipei 101 building in the background from the Bidhanyen Taoist Temple in Taipei to mark the lunar new year (AFP via Getty Images)

Both the United States and Taiwan will hold presidential elections in 2024, potentially creating an opportunity for China to take military action, Minihan wrote.

“These comments are not representative of the department’s view on China,” a U.S. defense official said.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said earlier this month he seriously doubted ramped up Chinese military activities near the Taiwan Strait were a sign of an imminent invasion of the island by Beijing.

China has stepped up its diplomatic, military and economic pressure in recent years on the self-governed island to accept Beijing’s rule. Taiwan’s government says it wants peace but will defend itself if attacked.

Air Force Brigadier General Patrick Ryder said in a statement that military competition with China is a central challenge.

“Our focus remains on working alongside allies and partners to preserve a peaceful, free and open Indo-Pacific,” he said.

Modern-day Taiwan, which is home to around 24 million people, traces its beginnings back to 1949 when the remnants of the government and army of the Chinese Republic fled to the island after being defeated by communist forces in the civil war.

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen (AP)

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen (AP)

Just this week, President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan told Pope Francis peaceful relations with China will only occur when Beijing respects the island’s sovereignty.

In a letter to the pontiff released by her office on Monday, President Tsai said Russia’s nearly one-year old invasion of Ukraine has underscored the need to seek peace and preserve regional security.

She told the pope armed conflict with China “is absolutely not an option,” a point she made in her annual National Day speech last October.

Tsai also said that “peace and stability” across the Taiwan Strait are the basis for developing bilateral relations with Beijing.

“Only by respecting the commitment of the Taiwanese people to our sovereignty, democracy and freedom can there be a foundation for resuming constructive interaction” Tsai said in the letter, sent in response to the pope’s annual World Day of Peace message on New Year’s Day.

 

美空军上将备忘录预测2025年与中国开战 凸显美国文职和军方领导人的分歧​

2023年1月31日 11:06

资料照片:美国前总统奥巴马与空军空中机动司令部司令迈克尔·米尼汉上将(右)。

资料照片:美国前总统奥巴马与空军空中机动司令部司令迈克尔·米尼汉上将(右)。
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美国空军一位上将的一份有争议的备忘录预测2025年将与中国开战,这可能反映出美国文职和军方领导人对这两个世界经济大国之间关系的看法日益脱节。

这份备忘录于周末开始在网上流传,迈克尔·米尼汉(Michael Minihan)上将在开篇时直言不讳地说:“我希望我是错的。我的直觉告诉我,我们将在2025年开战。”

米尼汉是美国空军空中机动司令部(Air Mobility Command)司令,他并没有提供任何证据来证明他对美中战争的预测,只是大概地断言美国和台湾即将举行的选举将为北京尝试统一这个自治岛屿与中国大陆创造机会。 中国长期以来一直声称台湾是中国领土的一部分。

“瞄准头部”

这位上将的备忘录命令他麾下的部队加强训练,准备好“威慑并在需要时打败中国”。

除了关于空中机动司令部后勤准备的广泛指示外,米尼汉还补充了几个具体命令,包括“所有具有武器资格的空中机动司令部人员将向7米外目标发射一弹夹的子弹,并充分理解毫不犹豫的杀伤力是最重要的。 瞄准头部。”

米尼汉是一名前C-130运输机飞行员,曾在美军内担任过其他高级职务,包括2019年9月至2021年8月担任美国印太司令部副司令,他对中国军队有着深刻的了解。

文职和军方的分歧

米尼汉的言论似乎与包括国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀(Lloyd Austin)在内的拜登当局高级官员的声明相矛盾。 本月早些时候,奥斯汀告诉记者,美国已经注意到中国对台湾的侵略行为越来越多,但他淡化了近期会发生袭击的可能性。

他说:“我们相信他们努力想建立新常态,但这是否意味着入侵迫在眉睫,我对此严重表示怀疑。”

五角大楼新闻秘书、空军准将帕特里克·赖德(Patrick Ryder)在发给美国之音的一份声明中说:“《国防战略》明确指出,中国是美国国防部的‘步调挑战’(pacing challenge),我们的重点仍然是与盟国和伙伴合作,维持和平、自由和开放的印太地区。”

当被具体问及米尼汉的备忘录时,五角大楼转发了一份声明,该声明出自一位不愿透露姓名的国防部官员,称“这些评论不代表国防部对中国的看法。”

来自高层的其他警告

然而,米尼汉并不是近几个月来第一个就美中即将产生冲突发出警告的高级官员。 10月,海军作战部长迈克·吉尔迪(Mike Gilday)上将建议,美国军队最早需要在今年为与中国发生潜在冲突做好准备。

吉尔迪说:“我不能排除这种可能性。我这么说绝不是想危言耸听,只是我们不能希望它就这么消失。”

在2021年的任命听证会上,美国印太司令部司令、海军军上将约翰·阿奎利诺(John Aquilino)被问及中国可能入侵台湾的问题。 他回答说:“我认为这个问题比大多数人想象的离我们更近。”

去年12月,他表示,那些对去年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰感到惊讶的人应该考虑中国对台湾发动类似袭击的可能性。他在里根国防论坛(Reagan National Defense Forum)上表示:“这可能发生在太平洋地区。我们不应该对它可能发生而感到惊讶。”

“十分不明智”

布鲁金斯学会外交政策研究主任迈克尔·奥汉隆(Michael O'Hanlon)告诉美国之音,他认为米尼汉备忘录是一个严重的错误,国防部应该更严厉地谴责这一错误。

他说:“我认为,它以一种非常不明智的方式将威慑的重要性与战争的可能性混为一谈,并且可能是危险的,因为它可能(创造出)自我实现的预言。它与美国政府的政策——并未将中国视为迫在眉睫的敌人——不一致。 美国政府的政策称中国为 ‘步调挑战’或‘我们最重要的战略竞争对手’。这些措辞经过精心挑选,旨在说明我们需要考虑与中国开战的可能性,并且着眼于威慑它。 但我们不需要考虑它的迫在眉睫。”

奥汉隆担心米尼汉对中国的态度在美国越来越盛行,这可能会导致未来一些小的危机如果不能被控制的话,则可能会成为更广泛冲突的导火索。

奥汉隆说:“我担心他只是一种越来越盛行的态度的直率版本。我在美国的许多战略界都看到了这一点。 对中国有适当的警惕,这都是好事,但我们必须避免妖魔化他们。 我们必须避免认为第一次危机只是不可避免的斗争的开始,而我们应该在仍处于主导地位的情况下应对危机。 我觉得这种态度现在有点太盛行了。”

没有证据显示有迫在眉睫的威胁

兰德公司国际防务资深研究员蒂莫西·R·希思(Timothy R. Heath)告诉美国之音:“没有证据支持中国正在认真考虑在未来几年内攻击台湾的说法。 没有证据。”

然而,希思表示,他认为高级军官看待中国的方式与美国政府的态度存在重大分歧。

他说:“高层政治领导人的评估与高层军事领导人的声明之间存在令人惊讶的脱节,后者表达了更多对袭击即将到来或迫在眉睫的担忧和恐惧。”

希思说,多种因素似乎共同导致了这种脱节。 他说,政治领导人倾向于将中国视为战略威胁,同时也将其视为贸易伙伴和应对气候变化的潜在合作者。 他们看到这个国家陷入了重大的经济和人口危机,而这两者对于北京来说都比统一台湾更重要。

希思表示,军方领导人倾向于更密切地关注一个无可争议的事实,即近年来中国人民解放军变得更加老练和危险。 他们也有更迫切的担忧。

他说:“这里有一个政治角度,国会正在考虑削减国防预算。这些将军们——我不想这么说——他们有动机提醒领导人注意潜在的重大安全威胁,而这需要强有力的国防。”

中国外交部的评论

中国外交部发言人毛宁在周一(1月30日)的新闻发布会被要求回应这位上将的评论。

她说:“台湾是中国的一部分。解决台湾问题是中国人自己的事。台海局势新一轮紧张的根源是(台湾)当局一再‘倚美谋独’,而美方一些人有意搞‘以台制华’。”

她补充说:“我们敦促美方恪守一个中国原则和中美三个联合公报规定,切实将美国领导人不支持‘台独’的承诺落到实处,停止插手台湾问题,停止美台军事联系,停止制造新的台海局势紧张因素。”

 

Pentagon must ditch ‘woke,’ focus on readiness to deter China from taking Taiwan: top Republican says​

Waltz largely agrees with Gen. Mike Minihan memo that predicts US, China will be at war by 2025​


By Brooke Singman

China will be ‘inside the gates’ if Biden continues to let them ‘walk on’ US economy: Pompeo

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo discusses President Biden’s mishandling of classified documents and the ongoing threat that China poses to U.S. national security.
EXCLUSIVE: The chairman of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness is warning that it's only a matter of time before China tries to invade Taiwan and that the Department of Defense needs to shift its focus from enacting "woke" policies to ensuring troops are prepared to address this threat and other threats to U.S. national security.

"You can debate if 2025 is the right year, but it is a matter of when, not if, anymore," Chairman Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., told Fox News Digital. "And we have to do more with our military readiness to convince China not to make that move."

Waltz said he largely agrees with a memo from four-star Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan – the head of Air Mobility Command – which predicted that the U.S. will be at war with China by 2025.


Minihan's memo to all air wing commanders and other Air Force operational commanders said that he believes war with China is imminent in the next two years, and he said that "a fortified, ready, integrated, and agile Joint Force Maneuver Team ready to fight and win inside the first island chain" needs to be established to prepare for the fight.

AIR FORCE GENERAL PREDICTS WAR WITH CHINA IN 2025: 'I HOPE I AM WRONG'

Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., is warning that China is getting closer to military action against Taiwan.

Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., is warning that China is getting closer to military action against Taiwan. (Stefani Reynolds / Bloomberg via Getty Images / File)
Minihan directed his Air Force commanders to report back by Feb. 28 on steps they will take to prepare for the war against China.

Waltz said China's military buildup could peak between 2025 and 2028, and he welcomed Minihan's sober assessment of China's rising power.

"It is refreshing to hear a general officer leading, telling his troops to train harder, that we have to deter war, but if we can’t, that we have to win, and here’s how we’re going to get to victory," Waltz told Fox News Digital. "He is focused on standards and victory – not on diversity, equity and inclusion and climate."

"I think this memo is spot on," Waltz added. "This is the type of mentality that we need our soldiers to see and that we need the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to see."

Waltz, who also sits on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the House Intelligence Committee, said the 2024 U.S. presidential election and the Taiwanese election might have influence on the timing of China’s aggression toward Taiwan. Minihan suggested in his memo that the elections would "distract" the countries, leaving a window for China to make a move
 
习总可以亲自坐庄,让大家都来压宝: 到底哪年打台湾? 干它一票大的,偷着乐。
 
台湾问题逼中国发展军力。
终将成为美帝的噩梦。



 
抓紧充实核武库是重要的。开打时放话谁敢阻止中国收复台湾,就准备好同归于尽。谁敢增援台湾,包括运送武器粮食,就准备接受中国的攻击
 
抓紧充实核武库是重要的。开打时放话谁敢阻止中国收复台湾,就准备好同归于尽。谁敢增援台湾,包括运送武器粮食,就准备接受中国的攻击


核武器肯定也在搞,多了如果用不着也是浪费。美俄的太多老旧核弹已经是负担。中国肯定得在技术上更新才是王道。
 
只能说中国地缘政治环境太差了,让别人万里之外就这么拿捏你,为了旁边一个小岛,又是核弹,又是六代机,这执政水平也是没谁了。
 
只有你眼里才是只有小岛。
中共的目标是星辰大海、茫茫宇宙。
 
核武器肯定也在搞,多了如果用不着也是浪费。美俄的太多老旧核弹已经是负担。中国肯定得在技术上更新才是王道。
中国的核弹应该比俄罗斯的先进不少。
以中国目前的核弹数量,肯定不足以吓阻美国。但俄罗斯就能
 
与气候变化专家一样,套经费。
 
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