The biggest short in the banking industry anywhere in the world isn’t in Switzerland or Silicon Valley, but rather, in the relatively tame financial centre of Canada.
In recent weeks, short sellers have upped their bearish bets against Toronto-Dominion Bank, and now have roughly US$3.7 billion on the line vis-à-vis Canada’s second-largest lender, according to an analysis by S3 Partners.
“Short sellers have been actively shorting into a declining banking sector,” said Ihor Dusaniwsky, S3’s managing director of predictive analytics.
Rohinton says some short sellers also have zeroed-in on TD
because of its roughly 10% stake in Charles Schwab — which recently lost $47 billion in market value as it came under scrutiny over its unrealized bond losses —
as well as TD’s position in Canada’s housing market, where variable-rate mortgages are common and consumer insolvencies are on the rise.
“TD sits uniquely in the middle of two broad headwinds,” Rohinton said. “The fears around Canadian housing will be projected onto TD.”
So far, the TD short has been a winner. In March, shares of TD tumbled 11%, which was the biggest decline in the S&P/TSX Banks Index. The decline
wiped out C$18.1 billion from the bank’s market value.
Outsized short-selling like we saw in the banking sector are usually knee-jerk reactions to market turmoil and can reverse as quickly as they occur.