勿谓言之不预也,信圈儿哥得永生

贵圈

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虽然美国家庭债务已在今年早些时候超过了金融危机前的最高点,但其和经济体量之比仍然低于危机时的水平。

第二季度,美国家庭总债务和名义国内生产总值(GDP)之比为67%,相比2009年时87%的高点仍有不小差距。

华尔街日报》报道指出,家庭债务增长部分反映出美国民众对经济信心的复苏。美国人更愿意购买住宅,或者贷款消费了。

不过,逾期不还的信用卡欠款占比不断上升也意味着,部分家庭的消费已经超出了他们的承受能力。

该季度大约6.2%的信用卡余额至少拖欠还款30天,去年同期的这一数据为5.1%。虽然有所上升,但是相比金融危机时期高达13%的比例依然处在低位。

第二季度总债务的违约比例为4.8%,和上一个季度持平。

当季信用卡贷款总额增加200亿美元至7840亿美元,也是2009年第四季度以来的最高水平。

纽约联储经济学家Andrew Haughwout在报告中指出,放贷标准放松使得信用评分较低的人也可以通过信用卡借贷。

从表面来看,如果总账目中的资产也被考虑进来,债务触及历史新高似乎并不值得引起警惕。由于房价反弹,股价飙升,美国家庭资产净值达到了创纪录的94.8万亿美元。

但休斯敦理财公司Clarity Financial LLC的首席投资策略师罗伯茨(Lance Roberts)指出,从资产净值增加中受益最多的是美国最富有群体。

“资产净值受10%最富裕群体的影响而出现了严重偏差。普通的四口之家都是在靠薪水生活,”罗伯茨说。

分析指出,美国经通胀调整后的家庭收入中值依然低于1999年最巅峰时的水平。因此对大部分美国人而言,借款不过是他们维持生活水平的一种办法。

另外,和贷款一起上升的,还有消费者支出。

美国商务部周二发布的数据显示,7月美国零售业销售上涨了0.6%,高于预期,也是自去年12月以来的最大月度涨幅。

与此同时,今年第二季度,美国个人的储蓄率也降至3.8%,低于去年同期的6.2%。低储蓄率和薪资增速缓慢意味着,消费者需要更多借贷来维持开支。
 
这么下去,美国人的信心,和信用卡。超前消费主义终归是要破产的。

信用制度,对经济的刺激,很好。但是天天吃伟哥,就不怕爆心脏?
 
In fact, according to the New York Fed, credit card balances topped $1 trillion in the second quarter of 2023.

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With some Americans waiting for their next payday to afford everyday expenses, credit cards may be the only tool left at their disposal. But relying on them too heavily comes at a cost.
The Quicken survey found that 46% of higher-income groups are more dependent on their credit cards than they’ve ever been — compared to just 40% of middle- and 39% of lower-income groups. About a third of folks earning $150,000 a year or more also admitted they won’t be able to pay off their balances before the end of the year.
If you’re unable to pay off your credit card bill in full and on time each month, you risk accumulating a massive pile of interest that becomes more difficult to pay off over time. Plus, you’re hurting your credit score, which lenders and other companies look at when you apply for things like loans or insurance.
Here’s how to fix up your finances and get out of this cycle ASAP.
Read more: Rich young Americans have lost confidence in the stock market — and are betting on these 3 assets instead. Get in now for strong long-term tailwinds

Build a budget​

It may be time to revisit your budget — or make one, if you haven’t already.



Make a list of your income and all your fixed expenses and figure out how much you can set aside for things like groceries, dining out and recreational activities, as well as your savings for retirement and emergencies.
Keep track of how much you’re spending each month. Consider using the cash-stuffing technique to allocate funds to each of your spending categories — and put whatever’s leftover after each month into your savings.

Pay down your debts​

While you’re making a budget, make sure you’re factoring in all of your monthly bills, including your credit cards.
Consider setting up automatic payments on your cards to make sure you’re never missing any deadlines. Or, if you’re struggling to afford payments in the first place, figure out a strategy to pay off a few of your balances at a time.

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For example, you could use the avalanche method to start with your highest-interest debt and work your way down (so that you’re paying less interest over time).

Create an emergency fund​

The best way to avoid getting caught up in the paycheck-to-paycheck lifestyle is to always prepare for the unexpected.
Whether you’ve just lost your job, are dealing with some pricey car repairs or grappling with a big medical bill, it’s important to have savings set aside to provide some cushioning so you’re not waiting on your next paycheck to cover the expense.
It’s generally recommended to put three to six months’ worth of expenses into an emergency fund.

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You can sock the cash away into a high-interest savings account, which can help to build your fund, but keep in mind any penalties for early withdrawals.

What to read next​

This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.

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