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S&P To Crash More Than 40%?
The Fed and Chair Powell all but finalized last week - rates are unlikely to be cut in the Fed’s December meeting.
www.forbes.com
Why is that?
3 ingredients: 1. Tariffs. 2. Deportation. 3. Low Taxes. In combination, this is a combustible mixture that’ll make it difficult for the Fed to fight an inflation spike in coming months, and running into 2025 as the Trump presidency kicks off. Of course, Trump might not implement policies around tariffs, deportations, and lower taxes that he promised. Or, let’s hope they’re not as severe as he’s promised on the campaign trail. But if he does, inflation will head north in a hurry.
The rules are simple. Higher tariffs will take cheaper goods out of the market. Prices will rise.
Mass deportations of illegal immigrants sounds reasonable - after all, they’re illegal immigrants - except it’ll make cheaper labor unavailable. On average, the price of services will go up.
Now while tariffs and deportations constrain supply of goods and services to increase prices - reduction in taxes makes more cash available. So people can spend more while prices are higher. High consumer willingness to pay, will lead to higher prices - fueling yet higher expectations for prices. Result, spiking inflation.
1.关税高导致商品价高， 2. 驱逐非法移民导致廉价劳动力散失，什么农场工人等等，导致物价高，还听说美国人要找装潢或者其他小工，开一个pickup直接去市场拉人，比加拿大工人便宜多了 3，减税，人民有钱可以承受高物价，资本家也聪明看到人有钱提价。
福布斯没有提另外两点，开除鲍威尔或者干脆解散美联储会导致混乱，跟中国彻底撕破脸，中国清空美债
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