Musk Revives F-35 Criticism, but Could It Actually Lead to Cuts Under Trump?
Nov. 27, 2024 | By
John A. Tirpak
Elon Musk—the SpaceX and Tesla founder tapped by President-elect Donald Trump to run a new commission dubbed the Department of Government Efficiency—thinks the F-35 fighter is an obsolete and poorly functioning weapon system whose mission is best overtaken by uncrewed aircraft.
Depending on the latitude given to Musk when Trump takes office in January, his view on the F-35 may carry major implications for the massive program, though Trump has been very complimentary of the fighter.
Musk offered his latest criticisms of the F-35 in a post on X, the social media site he owns. The fighter, he said, is a
“jack of all trades, master of none” because it was “required to be too many things to too many people” and was the result of a “broken” requirements system. In a separate post, he referred to the jet as the “worst military value for money in history.”
“Success was never in the set of possible outcomes” for the fighter, he wrote, adding that “manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones anyway. Will just get pilots killed.”
Musk’s comments are an extension of views
he first expressed four years ago at AFA’s 2020 Air Warfare Symposium, where he shocked the audience by declaring that
“the fighter jet era has passed.”
In a fireside chat at that conference, Musk said “locally autonomous drone warfare is where the future will be,” offering apologies to the attendees but insisting, “it’s simply what will occur.”
He also said the F-35 program would benefit from being placed in competition with drones employing a combination of remote control and onboard autonomy. But in such a competition, he wrote later on social media at the time,
“the F-35 would have no chance.”
Senior Air Force officials and think-tankers at the time said Musk was putting too much faith in autonomous technology, and that there would always be a competitive advantage for the human mind in a dogfight. But since then, the Air Force has put increasing emphasis on autonomy, and the Collaborative Combat Aircraft program has risen to become the service’s key method to achieve affordable mass in air warfare.
And unlike in 2020, Musk is poised to potentially act on his critiques. In addition to becoming a close adviser to President-elect Trump, he is one of the heads of the unofficial “Department of Government Efficiency,” tasked with finding ways to slash billions from the federal budget.
The
exact authorities and powers that Musk and his commission will have to reach that goal are still not completely clear, but some officials, including Democrats, have suggested the Pentagon’s budget is a prime place to go for such savings.
In response to a query from Air & Space Forces Magazine, the F-35 Joint Program Office defended the F-35 as a solid performer that has been adopted by 20 countries and is lauded by pilots as a technological leap over previous fighters.
The F-35s in service today “perform exceptionally well against the threat for which they were designed,” a JPO spokesperson said.
“Pilots continually emphasize that this is the fighter they want to take to war if called upon,” he said. “The air system’s international footprint amplifies the platform’s benefits, and it is the aircraft of choice for partners and allies.” The JPO noted that the F-35 serves with three U.S. military branches, seven international partner nations and 11 Foreign Military Sales customers, “and FMS interest continues to grow.” The JPO noted that, within 10 years, “there will be 700 F-35s in Europe, and only 60 of these will belong to the U.S.”
Asked to respond to Musk’s comments, a Lockheed Martin spokesperson said “As we did in his first term, we look forward to a strong working relationship with President Trump, his team, and also with the new Congress to strengthen our national defense. The F-35 is the most advanced, survivable and connected fighter aircraft in the world, a vital deterrent and the cornerstone of joint all-domain operations.”
The Air Force declined to comment on Musk’s F-35 posts.
If Musk does decide to push for cuts to the F-35 program, it isn’t clear how much or how soon that could happen. The JPO
reached a handshake agreement with Lockheed Martin last week covering prices and payments for production Lots 18 and 19, but it is not yet a signed contract.
“We have reached an initial agreement as part of ongoing negotiations for the Lot 18/19 Air Vehicle Production Contract,” the JPO said, adding, “We will share the aircraft quantity and cost figures when a final agreement is reached.” Industry sources said that process could take several months; well into the beginning of the second Trump term, and potentially giving the incoming administration significant influence over the deal. The two lots are expected to cover an estimated 300 or so aircraft.
Any change would also have to get the approval of Congress, and Lockheed’s team has placed F-35 contracts in nearly every state. Many Republican members of Congress have voiced support for the program, especially in Texas, Georgia, and California, where most F-35 airframe work is done, and Utah, where the Air Force’s F-35 depot is located. Connecticut and Florida delegations are also staunch F-35 supporters, because its engine, the F135, is made by Pratt & Whitney in those states.
On top of that, it’s also unclear how much flexibility the government would have in curtailing the F-35 program, as it has a financial partnership with nine other countries to develop the fighter.
It’s also possible that the Trump administration does not want to cut the F-35, regardless of what Musk says. Trump himself has praised the F-35, mentioning it by name at several campaign rallies; calling it “beautiful” airplane that is “invisible” to radar and boasting that he bought “many, many” of the fighters during his first term. He has said the F-35 is “very special” and “it wins every time.”
The F-35’s strong record of foreign sales would also seem to be a selling point to Trump, who has consistently played up the importance of the weapons export business, even bucking domestic and international pressure in his first term over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by the Saudi government to say he wanted to proceed with a huge arms sale to the Saudis.
Trump also takes credit for obtaining big discounts on earlier lots of F-35s, inserting himself directly into negotiations with Lockheed’s leadership during his first term.
F-35 Readiness
Musk’s post on X was in part a response to a story from Bloomberg quoting from a redacted report on the F-35 from the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation’s annual report in the spring. The report stated that the F-35’s reliability, maintainability and availability remain below the levels expected for it at this point in its service life. It also noted continuing issues with the F-35’s gun and its cyber defenses. These issues have resisted correction over the F-35 program’s 25-year history.
“Cyber threats are dynamic and thus require agile defense in depth,” the JPO said in response. “As such, the F-35 JPO aggressively maintains one of the most robust cybersecurity testing programs in DOD, which spans Developmental Test, Operational Test, and Sustainment. Results of all cyber tests are analyzed and prioritized for mitigation in a continuous cycle of assessing and improving, while the JPO actively seeks increasingly dedicated cyber test infrastructure.”
A spokesperson also said that the readiness issues pertaining to the F-35 during operational test are “not new or unknown.”
“We initiated the ‘War on Readiness’ and assembled a Fleet Readiness Team dedicated to understanding and addressing complex challenges that negatively affect fleet mission capability,” the spokesperson said. “The F-35 Executive Leadership Team is engaging directly with suppliers to ensure necessary focus is placed on top degraders affecting the fleet.”
Uncertain Future
In the final days of President Joe Biden’s administration, the Air Force is in the midst of rethinking its approach to air superiority. The Next-Generation Air Dominance manned fighter, long seen as the key to the future of air superiority, is under review, both for the technologies involved and their cost. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall had previously suggest the fighter would cost “multiple hundreds of millions” of dollars each, but in September said he thinks it might be possible to pursue an alternative approach that could cut the price to that of the F-35.
If that proves feasible, the Air Force’s plans for the F-35 might radically change. The service has never wavered from its requirement—set in 2001—for 1,763 F-35s, but under the previous Trump administration, Air Force acquisition executive Will Roper suggested the end figure might be reduced to about 500 because of stubbornly high operating costs. Roper also pushed for a rolling series of NGAD-like aircraft built in small lots and succeeded every few years by aircraft with fresh technology. Kendall has voiced a similar approach to the CCA program, which shares its budget line item with NGAD.
The Air Force has taken delivery of about 450 F-35As so far.
Elon Musk has a negative view of the F-35 that could affect the program when his government efficiency panel starts offering recommendations.
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