- 注册
- 2003-04-13
- 消息
- 240,613
- 荣誉分数
- 37,773
- 声望点数
- 1,393
First YouGov MRP of 2025 Canadian federal election shows Liberals on track to win a modest majority | YouGov
YouGov’s first projection of the 2025 Canadian federal election is a Liberal majority of 20, which would see Prime Minister Carney return to 24 Sussex with small but very workable government majority.
yougov.co.uk
First YouGov MRP of 2025 Canadian federal election shows Liberals on track to win a modest majority
Patrick English, Director of Political Analytics
Politics & current affairs
April 23, 2025, 5:49 AM
ouGov’s first projection of the 2025 Canadian federal election is a Liberal majority of 21, which would see Prime Minister Carney return to 24 Sussex with small but very workable government majority.
We expect the Liberals to fall somewhere between 163 and 201 seats, with a central estimate of 182, meaning that a hung parliament is very much inside the realms of possibility. We expect their principal opposition, the Conservatives, to be between 115 and 153 seats, with a central projection of 133.
Our MRP model, based on over 20,000 interviews with Canadians up and down the country, has the New Democratic Party (NDP) recording their worst-ever result, winning just four ridings. The Green Party look set to hold on to one of their current two seats, while we also project a disappointing – but not calamitous – night for the Bloc Québécois, dropping from 34 seat wins in 2021 to 23 now.
In terms of vote share, we anticipate that the Liberals will win around 42% of the vote, the Conservatives 38%, the NDP 10%, the Bloc 6%, the Greens 2%, the Peoples Party 2%, and other parties 1%.
The projected Liberal victory result is mainly driven by their ability to capitalise on the collapse of the NDP and to win significant numbers of seats from the Bloc in Quebec at a far greater pace than the Conservatives are able to win seats from the aforementioned, and the Liberals themselves.
In fact, in a great demonstration of the particularity of this election, we expect the Liberals and Conservatives to trade 12 seats from one another.
For example, we anticipate that while Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives will pick up seven ridings currently held by Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, the Liberals will pick up 13. The Liberals we expect also to pick up 11 Quebec seats from the Bloc, but we anticipate only one seat to go from the Bloc to the Conservatives.
Overall, we do expect that the Bloc will be significantly down on their 2021 result as a consequence of a clear squeeze on their vote by the Liberals.
For the Conservatives, a strong performance in the Greater Toronto Area is key to any prospective victory – including the key ridings of what is known as the 905. While we do expect them to make gains in some Greater Toronto seats, such as Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill and Newmarket—Aurora, our MRP projects that the Conservatives will lose seats to the Liberals elsewhere in Ontario, such as Bay of Quinte and both Niagara Ridings (Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake and Niagara South).
Another important area to this election outcome is the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island ridings of British Columbia, with each of the Liberals, Conservatives, the NDP, and the Greens winning seats there in 2021.
British Columbia in general is an NDP stronghold, and it is here we expect both the Liberals and Conservatives to be making strong gains against Singh’s incumbents. Currently, we anticipate that the Conservatives will pick up five BC seats from the NDP, and the Liberals seven.
As of now, we expect Green Party co-leader Elizabeth May to hold on to her riding of Saanich—Gulf Islands. However, we expect NDP leader Jagmeet Singh to lose his contest in Burnaby Central to the Liberals.
This projected overall election result would be a huge turnaround for the incumbent Liberals versus a couple of months ago when they were staring at what looked like defeat at the hands of the Conservatives.
Since then, a change of leadership from Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump’s recent positioning and actions taken against Canada and its export economy have propelled the incumbent governing party back into favour among the Canadian public.
Prime Minister Carney’s handling of the Trump tariffs is no doubt a core reason behind the dramatic change in Liberal Party fortunes this year. According to recent YouGov polling, for 50% of Canadians the U.S.-Canadian relationship is one of the top three most important issues facing Canada today. In the same survey, we found that Canadians are more likely to trust Carney over Poilievre to handle the issue by a margin of 41%-26%.
That said, the Conservatives and Poilievre remain much more competitive with Carney and the Liberals on other key election issues, including housing (which 37% of Canadians picked as one of their top three issues) and inflation (33%). While Carney remains ahead of Poilievre on who Canadians trust more to manage inflation, the gap is smaller than it is on the issue of U.S.-Canadian relations: 37%-28%. On the issue of housing, the two men are effectively tied at 27% and 29%, respectively.
A hung parliament remains a possibility in the model, albeit a small one. From our thousands of simulations, the Liberals win a majority in around 88%. A hung parliament occurs in around 11%, while a Conservative majority appears in around 1% of simulations.
YouGov will continue to monitor how Canadian public opinion changes this week as we head into the final few days of the campaign before the vote itself on April 28, and will produce a final-call MRP projection on April 25.
最后编辑:
