Let's not forget how the thinking was supposed to go:
"We don’t sell them our best stuff, not our second-best stuff, not even our third-best. You want to sell the Chinese enough that their developers get addicted to the American technology stack, that’s the thinking."
- Howard Williams Lutnick, Secretary of Commerce
Some people 3 years ago predicted that the export controls meant that "China's semiconductor manufacturing industry was reduced to zero overnight. Complete collapse. No chance of survival"