Expected discussions and potential deals focus on four key pillars: trade, energy, agriculture, and international security.
1. Trade & Tariff Reciprocity
The primary objective is resolving the ongoing trade dispute that began in 2024.
EV vs. Agricultural Tariffs: Analysts suggest a potential "grand bargain" where Canada reduces its 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and 25% duties on steel and aluminum in exchange for China removing punitive tariffs on Canadian canola, peas, pork, and seafood.
EV Manufacturing: There is speculation regarding China agreeing to build EV assembly plants in Ontario to bypass future trade barriers and stimulate the local economy.
2. Energy Exports
Energy is a cornerstone of the visit, with Carney seeking to position Canada as a reliable, long-term partner for China’s power needs.
LNG and Oil: Discussions will likely focus on increasing shipments via the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline and promoting British Columbia's Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a lower-emission alternative to coal.
Pipeline Infrastructure: Carney has indicated interest in clearing regulatory hurdles for a new oil pipeline to facilitate expanded resource shipments to Asia.
3. Infrastructure and Investment
High-Speed Rail: A more ambitious potential deal involves Chinese financing and expertise to construct a high-speed rail line linking major Canadian cities from Windsor to Quebec City.
Port Expansion: Potential investments in West Coast ports and Churchill, Manitoba, to improve the logistics for mass energy and resource exports to China.
4. Diplomatic & Security Normalization
Foreign Interference: While seeking economic deals, Carney is expected to address sensitive issues, including foreign interference in Canadian democratic institutions and transnational repression.
Security Cooperation: Discussions will touch on international security, though experts warn Canada must balance economic benefits without compromising national security or policy autonomy.
