How China can survive without Hormuz oil

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By Sumanta Sen, Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Sam Li, Lewis Jackson and Colleen Howe
Published March 31, 2026 18:00 GMT-4
The world’s largest importer of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is, paradoxically, also one of the best placed to weather the waterway’s closure.

China consumes oceans of oil from the Gulf and imports roughly as much from the region as India, Japan and South Korea combined. In response to the closure of the Strait, officials across Asia are asking citizens to take shorter showers or work from home to save energy. In China, the ruling Communist Party’s flagship newspaper is instead telling readers the country holds its own “energy rice bowl.”

While the editorial does not mention that Beijing has unofficially banned fuel exports to conserve supplies, the country is nonetheless more insulated than many of its neighbours thanks to years of policy measures that have reduced its vulnerability to energy shocks.

China boasts an electric vehicle fleet about as large as the rest of the world’s combined, vast and growing oil stockpiles, diversified supplies of oil, and gas and an electricity grid that is almost insulated from imports thanks to domestic coal and renewables.

“The current situation is really close to what Chinese planners have had in mind for decades,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Finland.

“It validates the drive to reduce reliance on seaborne fossil fuels.”

The unexpected EV boom​

In late 2020, Beijing issued a goal for electric vehicle purchases to hit 20% of new sales in 2025. By last year, sales hit half of all new vehicles.

That unexpected boom in EVs means China’s fuel consumption has topped out after decades of breakneck growth. The country is burning and importing less oil than it was expected to just a few years ago.

Oil displaced by EVs last year was roughly equal to what China imported from Saudi Arabia, according to estimates from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

The EV boom means China imports much less oil​

Annual oil consumption displaced by electric vehicles in China
 

An insulated electricity grid​

China’s electricity grid is powered almost entirely by coal and rapidly growing renewable energy. The boom in clean energy, which has exceeded Beijing’s own targets, is such that almost all the extra power the economy requires each year is met with new solar or wind. That means fewer coal imports and less liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported into the handful of coastal provinces where it is part of the electricity mix.
 

Lots of oil, but many suppliers​

China imports lots of oil, but in contrast to other major Asian importers, it is careful to stay independent of any one supplier.

Take Japan: Tokyo normally buys nearly 80% of its oil from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. China bought the same share of oil from eight countries, including large amounts of discounted oil from Russia, Venezuela and Iran, which U.S. sanctions place off limits for most buyers.

China keeps its oil imports diversified​

Crude oil import volumes by origin for major importers. Less than 20% of China’s oil imports are from any one source.
 

A more secure future​

For decades China’s growth has been fueled by fossil fuels imported from overseas, in particular crude oil. But thanks to the EV boom, China is unhitching its growth engine from foreign oil.

“China’s oil demand is likely to peak this year and decline thereafter,” said Chen Lin, vice president of oil and gas research at Rystad Energy. “So although the import share will remain high, the situation is unlikely to worsen.”
Additional sources
The data for the graphic at the top is from U.S. Energy Information Administration analysis based on Vortexa data.
Edited by
Ella Koeze, Tony Munroe, Sonali Paul
 
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