ZT 资产负债表中的启示

[jzhang77]

ZT from 茶香股谈

资产负债表中的启示

债务与现金

投资大师华伦．巴菲特（Warren Buffet）是当代最伟大的投资专家。在巴菲特收买股票时他首先检查的是该公司的债务（debt）与现金的比例。当他发现一家公司的债务太高时，对他来讲是一个警号。过高的债务可能让公司的营运周转不灵。高额的利息负担往往也会影响到公司的盈利。

应收帐款与存货（Accounts Receivable ＆Inventories）

应收帐款及存货与一家公司的销售量应该是有一定比例的。当应收帐款与存货增加时，销售量也应该增加。若一家公司的销售额没有大幅的增加，但是应收帐款及存货却节节之上涨的话，这是一个非常严重的警号，代表公司的营运有大问题：(A) 卖出去的货收不回钱。(B) 制造的产品卖不出去。

不久前电话通讯产业如日当中，深受投资者的喜爱。朗讯（Lucent Technologies）是电话通讯产业中的一个明星与股市的宠儿。2000 年的一月，朗讯的财务报告震惊了华尔街。该公司当日宣布它的销售与盈馀将暴跌 19％ 到25％。这则新闻就好像一枚炸弹一般使得该股的股价暴跌不已。从 1999 年每股 75 元的高价陆续的跌到一元左右的低谷，股价折损了 98％。详阅该公司 1999 年的资产负债表，发现每季的应收帐款与存货都远超过销售额，是标准的红色警号。但是当时的华尔街，包括股票分析师及投资者都对朗讯意乱情迷而看不到警号。2002 年宣布破产的公司数目之多是历史之最。安然公司(Enron) 及世界通讯 (WorldCom) 的破产金额之大都是有史以来的新高。投资者若对这些公司的资产负债表里的应收帐款及存货帐目稍加注意，则可以避免许多惨重的损失。

变现能力(Liquidity)

资产负债表上列有资产 (Assets)、负债 (Liabilities)及净值。从资产负债表上也可以资产负债率 (Current Ratio) 计算一家公司的变现能力。资产负债率是以一家公司的流动资产 (Current Assets) 除以流动负债(Current liabilities)。最理想的资产负债率是 1。也就是一份的流动资产对一份的流动负债。若低过 1 代表公司的流动负债太高。若碰到经济不景，或巨大变动时，公司没有变现的能力，可能遭到没顶之灾。例如美国航空公司 (US Airways) 的负债额一直太高。九一一事件之前该公司的资产负债率是 0.76。九一一事件之后，飞行的人数骤减，美国航空的营业一落千丈。它的资产负债率从 0.76 落到 0.49。最后终于落入破产的命运，在 2002年的 8 月美国航空公司正式宣布破产。

财务杠杆应用的程度

财务杠杆 (Leverage)是利用别人的钱来赚钱。也就是以贷款来投资产物。现代的企业经营适当的运用财务杠杆是必须的手段。因此公司贷款 (融资 )不是问题。征结所在是借款的公司能否赚得足够的利润来支付贷款的利息与本金。九○年代的后期，电讯产业热不可当。一些电讯设备公司纷纷大笔举债兴建光纤电缆。不幸兴建光纤的收入不敷利息支出。许多公司纷纷倒闭。环球通讯 (Global Crossing) 就是最好的例子。资产负债表上的负债对资本比 (Debt To Equity Ratio) 是评估财务杠杆应用是否适当的指标。负债对资本比愈高则财务杠杆最大，换言之，当一家高负债对资本比的公司的盈利开始下跌时，该公司的破产机会将增大。

资产负债表以外的会计（Off－Balance－SheetAccounting ）

安然事件之前，一般人很少听到过「资产负债表以外的会计」一辞。安然事件惊震了华尔街与财经界。因为安然公司的经理团队是用「资产负债表以外的会计为障眼法，蒙骗投资大众。安然事件后，投资大众，尤其是机构投资者对有关「资产负债表以外的会计」特别注意，以期避免重踏像投资安然公司之惨剧。

「资产负债表以外的会计」本是通用会计原理（General Accepted Accotmting Practice，简称 GAAP）所接受的一种会计原理。原则上是一家公司将资产负债表上的一部份资产与负债及损益表上的一部份损益从帐簿上移到另外一本帐上。该会计法的原意是帮助公司与外界的投资者共组一家新公司，以便捉住一些投资机会。用意本佳，可惜许多不屑之徒利用资产负债表以外的会计玩弄数字，故意欺骗投资大众。

结论：

资产负债表及其他财务报表虽然愈来愈复杂，但是了解一些基本会计知识仍是非常重要的。更重要的是能适当的把它们应用在选股、投资及卖股上。

 

[bluelove]

好文章

 

[挺傻]

文章简明扼要。
我个人意见，选取股票财务报表是一部分因素，基本面的考虑也很重要。
以财务报表的分析来说，有以下几种：
credit analysis: to evaluate the solvency of a company and its repayment ability. That is, in the short-term (bankruptcy risk), in the long term (survival). this kind of analysis based primarily on financial statements and company's obligations.
Equity Analysis: TO evalute the long term profit potential. This kind of analysis based on fiancial statements and projections.
Qualitative factors: from Management's discussion and analysis(MD &A). Including the industry analysis ( sector analysis): trends, life cycle, and seasonality. Resources are from company's reputation and financial statements.
Quantitative factors: about ratios, trends, comparisions with industry, projections.

Financial statements: cash flow, income statement, statement of changes in equity and cash flow statements. Also, notes in each statement are very important too.

Just at above article said, financial ratios in several aspects:
liquidity, leverage, profitability
For each aspect, the analysis approach is: big picture this aspect (1or 2 main ratios, such as current, quick ratio), investigation based on results( caluculate other ratios, look at trends, compare with industry, such s turnover, receivables, inventory, and payables, also operating cycle), in-depath analysis: analyse accounting policies, identify causes or trigger sources (what's going wrong), figure our risk facotrs and uncertainities.( such as accounting policies, LT contract. pay attention to Bad debts, raw materials vs work-in progreee vs finsihed goods, seasonality)


oh, too theoretically.Actually many websites provide such ratios and simplized analysis for a certain company. Excluding to those ratios, pls pay more attention to GAAP and notes, especially notes to determining numbers to influence your judge. Some websites also provide sector (industry) ratios and analysis, but as I have observed, GAAP will influence the judege of comparison significantly. Avoid of concentrating on too much detailed information, while losing the big picture of the company, industry trends and social environment.

It's much better to discuss in a real case.

 

[乎二哟]

最初由 挺傻 发布
文章简明扼要。
我个人意见，选取股票财务报表是一部分因素，基本面的考虑也很重要。
以财务报表的分析来说，有以下几种：
credit analysis: to evaluate the solvency of a company and its repayment ability. That is, in the short-term (bankruptcy risk), in the long term (survival). this kind of analysis based primarily on financial statements and company's obligations.
Equity Analysis: TO evalute the long term profit potential. This kind of analysis based on fiancial statements and projections.
Qualitative factors: from Management's discussion and analysis(MD &A). Including the industry analysis ( sector analysis): trends, life cycle, and seasonality. Resources are from company's reputation and financial statements.
Quantitative factors: about ratios, trends, comparisions with industry, projections.

Financial statements: cash flow, income statement, statement of changes in equity and cash flow statements. Also, notes in each statement are very important too.

Just at above article said, financial ratios in several aspects:
liquidity, leverage, profitability
For each aspect, the analysis approach is: big picture this aspect (1or 2 main ratios, such as current, quick ratio), investigation based on results( caluculate other ratios, look at trends, compare with industry, such s turnover, receivables, inventory, and payables, also operating cycle), in-depath analysis: analyse accounting policies, identify causes or trigger sources (what's going wrong), figure our risk facotrs and uncertainities.( such as accounting policies, LT contract. pay attention to Bad debts, raw materials vs work-in progreee vs finsihed goods, seasonality)


oh, too theoretically.Actually many websites provide such ratios and simplized analysis for a certain company. Excluding to those ratios, pls pay more attention to GAAP and notes, especially notes to determining numbers to influence your judge. Some websites also provide sector (industry) ratios and analysis, but as I have observed, GAAP will influence the judege of comparison significantly. Avoid of concentrating on too much detailed information, while losing the big picture of the company, industry trends and social environment.

It's much better to discuss in a real case.

高手！受益匪浅。谢谢