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土鳖虫

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WHY NT WILL GO TO US$23+ EOY


NT has steadily and quickly realized the benefits of its massive restructuring. Starting in 2003, the results have been quite astounding, with significant improvements each quarter, ending the year with a bang and a 4th QUARTERLY EPS of $.09! This was not the EPS for the year, just the last quarter (important to note). NT earned $.17/share in 2003 NOT $.09! Now NT says that they expect a seasonal decline in revs in the first quarter, as expected. However, their business is growing; they know it and deep inside most of us do too. Let's say that NT remains steady at $.09 for the first quarter. Then we see a 5% growth in their revs ($2.8 Billion + 5% = 2.94 billion), which at 40% margin adds another 60 million to the bottom line, or 1.3 cents/share. The second quarter would be $.10 to $.11. The third quarter would be $.12 to $.13. The fourth quarter would be $.14 to $.15. The total EPS for the year would be $.45 to $.48. At a P/E of 46 (same as CISCO), NT would be $20.70 to $22.08. This is what will happen to NT at the VERY LEAST. I am certain that NT management has been very conservative so as not to disppoint. In fact, it is obvious that they want to far exceed all expectations, likely to show that they belong at the top of the telecom heap. therefore, these estimates are very likely to be distant memories come Apr, after NT reports BLOWOUT earnings for the first quarter, much like they did last week.

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Good Luck and God Bless!
 
Thanks a lot!

I think this is the reason why you said that NT will reach USD17 by end of year.

有两点COMMENTS:
大量裁员短期内节省了开支, 长期而言对公司研发有消极作用.
以去年4Q的数据为依据做今年全年预测有些勉强.

感觉时间空间上都未到买入点,最近5天走势有点恶.

但你对NT几次预测都很准, 逃顶也漂亮, 也许这次你又对了.
 
感谢夸奖。我对NT已观察跟踪了很长时间,所以小有心得也是很自然的。假如阁下是
做长线,建议还是在低点进入后就捂着,对NT,我的感觉是做长比做短好。巴菲特
有句名言:别人都胆小的时候你要胆大,别人都胆大的时候你要胆小。这话是不错,
但要做到就很难。我知道有个人在NT为$1CND价位时把房子抵押上买了10万股,现在
手中的NT已值百万了,但很少有人能这么干。

另外,我上面的转的贴子是对NT的理性分析。但股市上很多时候,人们不按理性分
析走,而是按对将来的期望或感觉(perception)走。当以前NT为100时,人们说NT是
overvalued, 等降到50时,人们还是说overvalued, 等降到1时, 这时NT明显是undervalue,
可还有人继续抛。这种对一个股票的非理性观察常常主导着股市,例如现在的RIM。
TO就是这样。我现在作个预言:等将来NT起飞时,对NT的非理性投资又会蜂拥而来
了。
 
LD,您对IVAN怎么看?这几天是入仓的好时机吗?:blink:

NT,:p 永远:zhichi:即使现在觉得有点高,存点在手里会不会是个好的存钱罐呢?:blink:
 
Yes, got in at $7.63USD. But still wo'na to put more in when it goes down again.
 
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