去年担心复苏不会带动就业，目前来看就业市场也在改善。从技术层面，股市可能受油价，伊拉克，未来加息，大选影响而继续下跌。目前，经济好转的因素被市场忽略，到某时间，这因素又会变成股市上升的理由。
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/may2004/nf2004057_2030_db035.htm
No Longer the "Jobless Recovery"
April marks another upside surprise in hiring, and inside the jobs report are the makings of more solid economic figures soon to come
After being blind-sided by a far-greater-than-expected rise in nonfarm payrolls in March, Wall Street was taken by surprise yet again by the April employment report, released May 7. The economy added 288,000 jobs during the month, far greater than the consensus forecast of a 170,000 gain (and the 150,000 we at Action Economics were expecting). In our view, this report is the best evidence yet that the "jobless recovery" is over.
The key question, of course: How will the Fed react? Sustained strength in employment is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for a near-term Fed rate hike. Despite the better than 80% chance of a hike in June that's now priced into the Fed funds futures market, at Action Economics we don't expect the Fed to move that fast, especially since it isn't in inflation preemption mode.
Presumably, if Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan can spin a tempered inflation outlook and isn't compelled by the overall economic data to tighten in June or August, he may be able to delay a rate rise until after the November elections.
COUNTERVAILING PATTERNS. In the May 7 report, the outsize payroll gain in March was revised even higher, to 337,000 from 308,000. February was also revised significantly higher. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.6% from 5.7% in March, once again bettering the consensus forecast that it would remain at 5.7%. Hourly earnings increased 0.3% (the consensus was 0.2%). The report's only part that was weaker than expected was the workweek, which remained at 33.7 hours (below the consensus expectation of 33.8).
On closer inspection, the April jobs data revealed the usual mix of countervailing patterns, though the market always keys on whatever swing is seen in the payrolls number. The hefty payroll gain, following the upwardly revised March figure, occurred alongside a flat workweek figure. The solid increase in wages may mean both a stronger trajectory for job growth and earnings.
Another surprise came from the manufacturing sector. Factory employment has been unexpectedly strong over the past three months, rising a revised 37,000 over the period. But the workweek posted a hefty drop, to 40.6 hours, from a peak of 41 in January and February, and overtime indicators declined as well.
MORE WORKERS, FEWER HOURS. The result is that factory output is accelerating right on schedule, but now in a way that's grabbing the market's attention. Apparently, employers are willing to meet expected output growth with more workers rather than more hours.
The report could signal another strong round of economic data this month. The data translate to a fairly modest 0.4% industrial production gain in April, with weakness attributable to the sluggish workweek data. However, the solid earnings gain allows a bigger personal-income increase of 0.6%. This mix means industrial-production growth on a quarterly basis will actually moderate in the second quarter to around 5% from 6.6% in the first, while disposable-income growth hovers at 7.5% in the second quarter -- boosted by tax-law effects -- following a similarly aided 7.7% rate in the first.
In total, the employment report will leave hours-worked growing at a 2.5% to 3% rate in the second quarter, following 1.9% in both the prior quarter and in 2003's fourth quarter.
BONDS OFF, DOLLAR UP. What does that mean for the overall economy? By our estimates, gross domestic product is soaring at about a 7% rate, which means productivity will remain in the robust 4% to 5% range -- despite the improving conditions in the labor market.
Bond and stock markets initially reacted somewhat negatively to the data on May 7, choosing to focus on the very real chance that the Federal Reserve will hike rates sooner than previously thought. Treasury prices sank, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note vaulting to 4.75% in a heartbeat after dipping to 4.53% just prior to the announcement. Stock prices moved mostly lower as well. In contrast, the dollar rallied sharply vs. other major currencies on the expectation of higher rates.
