我对加息的看法 -- 利好

  • 主题发起人 主题发起人 Mee
  • 开始时间 开始时间

Mee

知名会员
注册
2003-11-01
消息
1,308
荣誉分数
0
声望点数
146
从宏观经济角度,加息意味美元要强劲,经济见好的标准:国家好,货币硬!
明明是长期看好的指标,却被解释成利空,公司还债负担重等等。任何一件事情都有好和坏两个方面,关键是看利弊大小。市场活跃了,订单多了是主要的,还债是次要的。利大于弊。
媒体指鹿为马,意图在打压,和去年11月份情形相似,QQQ 5/12 暴出52周天量,底部暴量意味什么?所以我认为大盘触底了,今后任何下跌可以认为是空头陷阱,进货时机,但是上升还需时日,主要是需要NEWS,但是坚信NEWS会有的。

BTW,这些日子,油价太贵,一直憋着没有给车加油,现在已经以步代车了,好惨!!
 
个人认为,息加了,市场就没有用潜在加息作为下调的理由。或者加息会是市场反转的契机。

下面一段话是MSN上关于加息的一些评论:

Fed plays a delicate game
The Fed does not want to kill off the expansion, however! Sure, interest rates are going to rise. Is there anyone out there who thinks otherwise? Is there anyone who thought that a 1% overnight cost of money was the norm? When the Fed lowered rates to 1%, they described it as an emergency policy to prevent the economy from becoming subject to deflation. At the time, many people thought that a little inflation would be a great benefit. So now that the economy has strengthened and the Fed is likely to raise interest rates slowly, why is the stock market panicking? I'm asking the question, although I don't have a good answer, because the stock market does seem to be carried away with its knee jerk emotional response.

There are a number of good examples of thoughtless investing, as if the collapse of the tech bubble wasn't a good enough recent example. One of the first is the banking sector. Bank profit margins were under pressure when interest rates fell to very low levels. The interest rates banks charged on their loans declined with market rates, but they couldn't cut the rates they paid on deposits, because those rates were already at or close to zero. So, low interest rates squeezed bank profit margins. If rates are going to rise a bit, bank profit margins should rebound.

Even so, banks fell along with all "interest rate sensitive" stocks in a broad thoughtless way. The same thing happened to real estate investment trusts. Higher rates will make apartment REITs better able to increase occupancy since fewer people will be able to afford to move into owner occupied homes. Office buildings will fill up as employment increases. Yet these stocks also got hit hard. The market isn't always rational in the short run. It gets carried away, which is a good argument for always maintaining enough liquidity to be able to take advantage of such chaotic conditions.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Stratlabs/Round10/P83269.asp
 
息是肯定加,确实市场是借题趋跌
 
最初由 former-ABC 发布
个人认为,息加了,市场就没有用潜在加息作为下调的理由。或者加息会是市场反转的契机。

I strongly agree!
 
加息与股市涨跌存在着直接而且必然的联系,只不过不象兄台这样解释的,因为利率其实就是货币的价格,如果加息了,或者证明政府想利用货币政策对宏观经济进行调控,防止通货膨胀,长远影响公司业绩;或者因为贷款成本上升而直接影响公司的运营成本。所以加息对于股市来说从来都是负面效应。
 
这就是长期效应和短期效应的问题。
美国政府一直在减息,每减一次都刺激股市上涨,但是结果呢,其实是刺激反弹而已,因为经济萎靡是事实。
现在呢?同样,加息只是刺激调整,经济上涨已经是不可遏制的势头,一切坏消息都是扰动罢了,7月份美政府从iraq撤军,不管体面好,还是不体面撤军,总之国防开支大大减少,iraq的爆炸也与美军无关了。

石油价格一直在创新高,创新高其实就是创造新顶部的褒义词,去掉修饰,就是----------------顶部,石油价格在顶部,就是股市价格在底部。这样思想就会更清晰些

长远影响公司业绩的是市场,是订单,利率只是很小的比例,就象你的mortgage和你的工作收入的比例一样,工作好,收入高,mortgage就是高些,买房还不是小case吗


最初由 会游泳的鱼 发布
加息与股市涨跌存在着直接而且必然的联系,只不过不象兄台这样解释的,因为利率其实就是货币的价格,如果加息了,或者证明政府想利用货币政策对宏观经济进行调控,防止通货膨胀,长远影响公司业绩;或者因为贷款成本上升而直接影响公司的运营成本。所以加息对于股市来说从来都是负面效应。
 
后退
顶部