个人认为,息加了,市场就没有用潜在加息作为下调的理由。或者加息会是市场反转的契机。
下面一段话是MSN上关于加息的一些评论:
Fed plays a delicate game
The Fed does not want to kill off the expansion, however! Sure, interest rates are going to rise. Is there anyone out there who thinks otherwise? Is there anyone who thought that a 1% overnight cost of money was the norm? When the Fed lowered rates to 1%, they described it as an emergency policy to prevent the economy from becoming subject to deflation. At the time, many people thought that a little inflation would be a great benefit. So now that the economy has strengthened and the Fed is likely to raise interest rates slowly, why is the stock market panicking? I'm asking the question, although I don't have a good answer, because the stock market does seem to be carried away with its knee jerk emotional response.
There are a number of good examples of thoughtless investing, as if the collapse of the tech bubble wasn't a good enough recent example. One of the first is the banking sector. Bank profit margins were under pressure when interest rates fell to very low levels. The interest rates banks charged on their loans declined with market rates, but they couldn't cut the rates they paid on deposits, because those rates were already at or close to zero. So, low interest rates squeezed bank profit margins. If rates are going to rise a bit, bank profit margins should rebound.
Even so, banks fell along with all "interest rate sensitive" stocks in a broad thoughtless way. The same thing happened to real estate investment trusts. Higher rates will make apartment REITs better able to increase occupancy since fewer people will be able to afford to move into owner occupied homes. Office buildings will fill up as employment increases. Yet these stocks also got hit hard. The market isn't always rational in the short run. It gets carried away, which is a good argument for always maintaining enough liquidity to be able to take advantage of such chaotic conditions.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Stratlabs/Round10/P83269.asp