Canada's Housing Boom Forecast To Continue In 2005
Canada's real estate market, enjoying record sales for the last several years, is poised to have another great year in 2005, forecasters agree. While most observers think the market will be less frenetic than in 2004, economic conditions point to another strong year. Interest rates are not expected to increase dramatically, in part because of the strength of the Canadian dollar. The employment numbers are good and consumer confidence is positive.
The latest forecast from Royal LePage Real Estate Services predicts that house prices will rise by 4.5 per cent nationally in 2005, a figure that is more conservative than earlier forecasts of 5.3 per cent from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) and six per cent from Re/Max. Last year, all three predicted numbers turned out to be less than half of the 2004's actual price increase, which will be about nine per cent when all the year-end figures are added up.
Most analysts believe that an increase in listings and less pent-up demand will slow the market down in 2005.
"We currently have the highest levels of listing inventory available in the past four years, and this will clearly have a mitigating effect on price increases," says Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. "Sound market fundamentals will support a robust 2005 housing market, but what will emerge is more normalized, sustainable housing market activity."
"Homeowners who invested in real estate over the last several years will continue to benefit from strong upward momentum in 2005," says Michael Polzler, executive vice-president of Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Canada, in a news release. "Without a doubt, records will be broken in many major centres. Unit sales figures will reflect an active marketplace that will continue to be buoyed by strong economic fundamentals."
Western Canadian cities like Edmonton, Calgary and Kelowna, B.C., will see the highest unit sales increases, says Re/Max, because strength in the oil and natural gas sector is spurring energy investment and non-residential construction.
"Alberta certainly stands to benefit from strong global demand for crude at close to $50 US a barrel," says Elton Ash, vice-president and regional director at Re/Max of Western Canada. "Foreign demand is also expected to bolster coal mining projects in British Columbia and give strength to the potash and uranium industries in Saskatchewan next year."
But in Ontario, Polzler says, "With supply and demand on more even ground, housing values are expected to moderate somewhat in coming months -- unlike 2004, when average prices had a strong upward momentum."
Royal LePage predicts that Edmonton property values will post the greatest increases next year, at seven per cent, followed by Calgary and Winnipeg. The smallest price increases will be in Halifax at 1.7 per cent and Toronto at 2.5 per cent, says Royal LePage.
The company says that potential challenges in 2005 include Canada's vulnerability to escalating energy prices, appreciation of the Canadian dollar, and "possible softening of demand in the U.S."
Some other emerging trends:
Most major Ontario markets experienced a "serious upswing" in luxury home sales in 2004, says Re/Max. "Homes priced at $1 million plus have topped 1,000 units in Toronto, up 36 per cent over 2003 levels," the company reports. "In Ottawa, sales of homes priced in excess of $500,000 rose close to 61 per cent this year, compared to the same period one year ago."
CMHC says that in Toronto, low-rise condominiums, townhouses and semi-detached homes will become more in demand, as an affordable alternative to the single-detached home. Because new homes are now so expensive in the Greater Toronto Area, the resale market will take market share away from builders.
Smilarly, in Vancouver, condominium apartments, townhouses and row houses will take market share from single-detached homes. Luxury condominiums are also expected to do well as older move-up buyers cash in the equity in their homes and move to a maintenance-free lifestyle. The move-up market in general will have more impact on the market in 2005.
First-time buyers will continue to fuel housing activity, particularly in Edmonton, London, Ont., and Moncton, says Re/Max.
by Jim Adair
Published: December 30, 2004
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