Local housing market

cy25915

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From http://www.ottawabusinessjournal.com/282571789489935.php

Local housing market off to mixed start
By Leo Valiquette, Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Tue, Feb 8, 2005 10:00 AM EST

Ottawa's housing market began 2005 with a mixed showing, as housing starts fell but the resale market held its ground following a string of declines in the latter half of 2004.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported Tuesday that construction began on 395 new housing units in January. That was a decline of 21 per cent from December's 501 and of 10.4 per cent from the 441 starts recorded in January 2004.

Despite the weak start, Christian Douchant, CMHC's senior market analyst for Ottawa, remains optimistic.

"Though we started the new year down compared to last year, construction levels are well above the 10-year January average for Ottawa, which is 242 units," he said in the report.

"Though we are forecasting less construction activity this year, demand for homes is still firm and we can anticipate construction levels to remain at above-average levels in Ottawa."

As local housing demand eases to a more sustainable level of activity after more than three years of hyper growth, it is typically the higher end of the market that first feels the pinch.

That trend was evident in January's figures, with cheaper forms of housing enjoying a modest gain, while starts on costlier single-family homes down significantly.

Starts of multiple-type dwelling units, which include more affordable housing types such as condos and rowhousing, hit 310 in January. That was an increase of three per cent from a year ago and of about 8.4 per cent from December.

"While we saw an 18-per-cent decline in row (townhouse) construction in January, this was more than offset by a doubling in the number of semi-detached starts and seven-per-cent increase in apartment construction," Mr. Douchant said, adding that multiples will continue to make up a large number of the starts in 2005 "due primarily to the affordability that these units offer."

Singles starts, however, fell by 39 per cent from a year ago and by 60 per cent from December, to 85. That was the lowest one-month total in eight years.

"Rising listings in the resale market means consumers will be also afforded more choice than ever as the price gap between new and resale homes may influence potential homebuyers to look at the resale market first," Mr. Douchant said.

RESALES HOLD THEIR GROUND

On that note, the Ottawa Real Estate Board reported separately that the region's resale market held its ground in the first month of 2005.

The number of residential resales through the Multiple Listing Service totalled 637 in January, compared with 634 in December and 644 a year ago.

"The overall numbers as reported by our board for the month of January 2005 are very encouraging," board president Jeff Greenberg said in the report. "Our supply of homes ... continues to increase offering buyers a reasonable number of homes to chose from."
 
Re: Local housing market off to mixed start

From http://www.ottawabusinessjournal.com/298855337519134.php

National housing starts off to slow start
By Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Tue, Feb 8, 2005 8:00 AM EST

Canada's housing market began the New Year on a sour note Tuesday, with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reporting an unexpected decline in the number of construction starts.

CMHC reported that construction began on a seasonally-adjusted 203,700 residential units last month. That was a decline of almost 14 per cent from December's 236,300.

The consensus among analysts had been for a much smaller decline, to about 230,000 starts.

"Despite the decrease in housing starts in January, the level of activity remains strong and the seasonally adjusted annual rate of starts is higher than it was in January 2004," CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan said.

"This high level of activity in the housing market is consistent with low mortgage rates and a tight labour market."

For 2005, CMHC is forecasting more than 215,000 starts on a seasonally adjusted basis. That represents a decline of almost eight per cent from 2004's 17-year high of 233,431 units. However, anything above 200,000 is still considered a strong and healthy market.

The greater part of the new home construction market, urban, saw a decline of 14.9 per cent in January. Urban starts of multiples, which include more affordable housing types such as condos, apartments and the various types of rowhousing, fell by 21.5 per cent. Starts of costlier single-family homes fell by 8.1 per cent.

Outside of the major urban areas, rural starts fell by 6.6 per cent from December.
 
Heard it on the news last night that CMHC reported that half the houses sold in Canada are sold for below the avarage price in 2004, although I couldn't find any press release from CMHC.

According to CMHC, although new constructions posted a 17-year record high in 2004, sales of resale homes are forecasted to go down in the next 2 years, but price of resale homes will continuously rise.

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/News/nere/2005/2005-02-03-1000.cfm
 
From: http://www.ottawabusinessjournal.com/282587346646561.php

New home prices continue to climb
By Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Thu, Feb 10, 2005 10:00 AM EST

Further proof of Ottawa's hot housing market: new home prices in Ottawa-Gatineau have risen faster than any other city in Canada since 1997.

Statistics Canada's new housing price index for Ottawa stands at 151 at the end of December 2004, compared to 100 in 1997.

Booming Calgary ranked second, with a reading of 140.2.

The agency says the price of new homes in Ottawa rose 6.9 per cent last year. The St. Catherines/Niagara area posted the highest increase at 8.9 per cent, followed by Winnipeg. The national average increase was 5.3 per cent.

The smallest increase in new home prices last year was in Halifax, where prices were up less than one per cent.

The new housing price index is based on contractor's selling prices for new homes in 21 metropolitan areas across the country.
 
from http://www.ottawabusinessjournal.com/282755931011917.php

Home sales decline, but prices continue to rise
By Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Fri, Mar 4, 2005 11:00 AM EST

Home sales in Ottawa declined slightly in February, but the average price of a resale home continued to climb.

The Ottawa Real Estate Board says its members sold 921 residential and condominium units and 46 units of other types of properties through its Multiple Listing Service last month, a decline of 2.2 per cent from a year ago. The average price of all the homes sold in the month was $239,549, an increase of 5.8 per cent over February 2004.

"Although there were slightly fewer residential and condominium sales last month compared to February 2004, a record setting year for real estate sales, the average price of residential properties continues to increase," board president Jeff Greenberg said in the report.

"All indicators illustrate our local real estate market continues to be very healthy and positive."

The board says prices were up for both traditional single-family homes and condos. The average price for a single-family home has increased 7.1 per cent since last February, to $257,915. The average price of all the condos sold last month was $175,799, an increase of 3.6 per cent over a year ago.

So far this year, sales of less expensive homes in the range of $100,000 to $275,000 have declined while sales in the $275,000 to $400,000 bracket have increased. At the very high end of the scale, four homes worth more than $1 million each have changed hands.
 
very interesting report. I wonder how a declining sale would fuel the sale prices rise. Anybody?

最初由 cy25915 发布
from http://www.ottawabusinessjournal.com/282755931011917.php

Home sales decline, but prices continue to rise
By Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Fri, Mar 4, 2005 11:00 AM EST

Home sales in Ottawa declined slightly in February, but the average price of a resale home continued to climb.

The Ottawa Real Estate Board says its members sold 921 residential and condominium units and 46 units of other types of properties through its Multiple Listing Service last month, a decline of 2.2 per cent from a year ago. The average price of all the homes sold in the month was $239,549, an increase of 5.8 per cent over February 2004.

"Although there were slightly fewer residential and condominium sales last month compared to February 2004, a record setting year for real estate sales, the average price of residential properties continues to increase," board president Jeff Greenberg said in the report.

"All indicators illustrate our local real estate market continues to be very healthy and positive."

The board says prices were up for both traditional single-family homes and condos. The average price for a single-family home has increased 7.1 per cent since last February, to $257,915. The average price of all the condos sold last month was $175,799, an increase of 3.6 per cent over a year ago.

So far this year, sales of less expensive homes in the range of $100,000 to $275,000 have declined while sales in the $275,000 to $400,000 bracket have increased. At the very high end of the scale, four homes worth more than $1 million each have changed hands.
 
1. Even sales decline slightly, the market is still strong enough.

2. Higher price causes less entry level people can afford. But more home owners sell small and buy big.

3. Most of the sellers hold the high price. They are not in rush to sell the house.

最初由 keen_observer 发布
very interesting report. I wonder how a declining sale would fuel the sale prices rise. Anybody?

 
From: http://www.ottawabusinessjournal.com/282786466579034.php

Housing starts plunge in February
By Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Tue, Mar 8, 2005 11:00 AM EST

The pace of new home construction in Ottawa slowed dramatically in February, according to new figures from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

CMHC recorded just 232 housing starts last month, compared to 419 in February 2004.

So far this year, builders have begun work on 627 new homes, a 27 per cent decline from the same period in 2004.

CMHC senior market analyst Christian Douchant admits the industry is off to a slow start, but says the pull back was not unexpected after the record year of 2004.

He says the plentiful supply of older homes on the resale market I having an impact on the market for new homes.

"The resale supply is quite high," he says. Both first time buyers and move-up buyers are taking a closer look at the resale market because of the large number of listing and the wide gap between new construction and older homes.

Last year, the average new single-family home in Ottawa sold for $332,000 while the average single-family resale home sold for $263,000.

Both single family and multi-family construction was down and the steepest decline was noted in the old city of Ottawa.

No apartment units were started last month, and only 69 single-family homes were begun in February, the lowest level of single family starts in the month of February in six years.

Nationally, Canada's housing industry staged a mild rebound in February, but is still performing below analysts' expectations.

CMHC says housing starts rose 5.3 per cent in February, to an annual rate of 214,900. The annual rate in January was 203,700, much weaker than expected. Even the February figure is below estimates of 220,000 starts.

The numbers raise questions about whether the blistering pace of new home construction last year will continue in the year to come. Statscan reported Monday that the value of building permits fell 11 per cent in January to $4.5 billion.

CMHC says the February rebound in starts points to a healthy outlook.

"Housing starts rebounded in February back to levels more consistent with our outlook for the year," said CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan. "Strong growth in domestic demand, healthy levels of immigration and low mortgage rates continue to fuel the activity in the new home market."
 
land, labour, and material (lumber, etc...) costs will increase over time for sure. mortgage rates are expected to go up by 0.25% at least within a year... so the cost of a house will not be lower for sure...:smokin:
 
最初由 cy25915 发布
1. Even sales decline slightly, the market is still strong enough.

2. Higher price causes less entry level people can afford. But more home owners sell small and buy big.

3. Most of the sellers hold the high price. They are not in rush to sell the house.


Good point. I think this type of market condition is unsustiable. When sales decline, presure is on the resale home owner, and this should lead to pricing drop.
 
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