Eric Beauchesne
The Ottawa Citizen
Thursday, October 03, 2002
Employers in all provinces have been trimming their hiring plans, suggesting that this year's strong job growth may be coming to an end.
In what some analysts warned might be a bad omen for the September job report coming out at the end of next week, Statistics Canada reported yesterday that its help-wanted index last month fell 2.1 per cent from August, the second straight monthly decline after six consecutive increases.
The largest decline, 3.1 per cent, was in British Columbia, followed by 2.9 per cent in New Brunswick, 2.8 per cent in Alberta and 2.5 per cent in Nova Scotia. The smallest decline was in Quebec, at 0.8 per cent.
Ontario's 2.1-per-cent drop matched the national average.
"The drop in the help-wanted index is somewhat reminiscent of what happened in late 1994, when the 1993-94 recovery in the index reversed, ushering in a period of sluggish employment," J.P. Morgan economist Ted Carmichael said.
So far this year, employment has increased by 386,000, or 2.6 per cent, the biggest eight-month surge since 1994.
The consensus forecast of analysts is that employment increased by a modest 11,000 last month, which would bring the number of job created this year to nearly 400,000, he said.
Some analysts question whether the help-wanted index, based on ads in major newspapers, is still an accurate reflection of hiring plans of employers, who increasingly use the Internet to find workers.
"This indicator has been firing false signals all year with regards to labour market strength, rendering any message from it at this point nearly impossible to interpret," said John Anania, a senior economist at RBC Financial Group.
The Ottawa Citizen
Thursday, October 03, 2002
Employers in all provinces have been trimming their hiring plans, suggesting that this year's strong job growth may be coming to an end.
In what some analysts warned might be a bad omen for the September job report coming out at the end of next week, Statistics Canada reported yesterday that its help-wanted index last month fell 2.1 per cent from August, the second straight monthly decline after six consecutive increases.
The largest decline, 3.1 per cent, was in British Columbia, followed by 2.9 per cent in New Brunswick, 2.8 per cent in Alberta and 2.5 per cent in Nova Scotia. The smallest decline was in Quebec, at 0.8 per cent.
Ontario's 2.1-per-cent drop matched the national average.
"The drop in the help-wanted index is somewhat reminiscent of what happened in late 1994, when the 1993-94 recovery in the index reversed, ushering in a period of sluggish employment," J.P. Morgan economist Ted Carmichael said.
So far this year, employment has increased by 386,000, or 2.6 per cent, the biggest eight-month surge since 1994.
The consensus forecast of analysts is that employment increased by a modest 11,000 last month, which would bring the number of job created this year to nearly 400,000, he said.
Some analysts question whether the help-wanted index, based on ads in major newspapers, is still an accurate reflection of hiring plans of employers, who increasingly use the Internet to find workers.
"This indicator has been firing false signals all year with regards to labour market strength, rendering any message from it at this point nearly impossible to interpret," said John Anania, a senior economist at RBC Financial Group.
