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Kenco on the warrior forum posted some nice numbers for warrior threat. So naturally this causes me to wonder how druids compare. I tried sifting through tons of posts of mostly anecdotal evidence, but I was unsatisfied and decided to do the testing myself. So here the data I gathered on Maul. Swipe will be incoming, but this was boring so it might be a while. 
The tests were preformed with me (Chibi, a warrior) using Recap, a Warlock (Impudence), and a Druid with "defiance" (Alys).
The druid initialized combat with a single maul in bear form. Enrage was not used, since I felt it could cause threat. Then the warlock would punch the mob (four damage per swing generally) until he pulled aggro. This resulted in the following data.
----------------
NORMAL MAUL
# MAUL PULLED DIDN'T THREAT THREAT BASE BASE MAX MIN MAX % MIN %
DMG PULL MAX MIN THREAT THREAT DIFF. DIFF. OF DMG OF DMG
MAX MIN
1 285 796 792 723.6 720.0 499.0 496.6 214 211.6 75.1 74.2
2 292 818 814 743.6 740.0 512.8 510.3 220.8 218.3 75.6 74.8
3 263 735 731 668.2 664.5 460.8 458.3 197.8 195.3 75.2 74.3
4 270 755 751 686.4 682.7 473.4 470.8 203.4 200.8 75.3 74.4
5 288 806 802 732.7 729.1 505.3 502.8 217.3 214.8 75.5 74.4
6 286 801 797 728.2 724.5 502.2 499.7 216.2 213.7 75.6 74.7
7 277 774 770 703.6 700.0 485.2 482.8 208.2 205.8 75.2 74.3
8 268 749 745 680.9 677.3 469.6 467.1 201.6 199.1 75.2 74.3
9 266 744 740 676.4 672.7 466.5 463.9 200.5 197.9 75.4 74.4
10 260 726 722 660.0 656.4 455.2 452.7 195.2 192.7 75.1 74.1
--------------
Threat min and max are determined by dividing damage by 1.1. 10% is the melee range stickiness, that is, the amount needed beyond the current aggro holder's threat in order to pull aggro. This was determined by various sources (including myself) in other tests.
Base threat is determined by dividing threat totals by 1.45. The 1.45 threat modifier in bear form was crudely tested beforehand, but mostly this number comes from faith in thottbot.com and the assumption that bear form works just like defensive stance for warriors.
DIFF. means difference which is determined by subtraction (duh!).
Smallest max difference: 195.2
Largest min difference: 218.3
From this impossible range we can conclude maul does not have a fixed modifier as heroic strike (similar warrior skill), but notice the beautiful final columns.
Smallest max % of damage: 75.1%
Largest min % of damage: 74.8%
I feel fairly confident saying maul provides a 1.75 threat modifier to its damage from this data.
To verify these findings and investigate the possibility of strange crit behaviour we tested a few crits using the same methods.
--------------
CRIT MAUL
# MAUL PULLED DIDN'T THREAT THREAT BASE BASE MAX MIN MAX % MIN %
DMG PULL MAX MIN THREAT THREAT DIFF. DIFF. OF DMG OF DMG
MAX MIN
1 594 1659 1651 1508.2 1500.9 1040.1 1035.1 446.1 441.1 75.1 74.3
2 575 1610 1602 1463.6 1456.4 1009.4 1004.4 434.4 429.4 75.5 74.7
3 596 1665 1661 1513.6 1510.0 1043.9 1041.4 447.9 445.4 75.2 74.7
4 587 1640 1636 1490.9 1487.3 1028.2 1025.7 441.2 438.7 75.2 74.7
--------------
Crits apparently function the same.
So threat from maul is:
Maul_Damage * 1.75 * 1.3 (or 1.45 with talent)
We went back and tested swipe.
The data is broken into two tables so that it won't be too wide.
# TOTAL WHITE SWIPE PULLED DIDN'T
DMG DMG DMG PULL
1 220 153 67 432 428
2 369 302 67 670 662
3 214 146 68 424 421
4 222 154 68 436 433
5 219 146 73 439 435
6 218 151 67 430 426
7 205 137 68 412 405
8 218 151 67 432 424
9 238 164 74 470 466
10 211 144 67 418 414
11 252 180 72 491 487
12 67 0 67 188 184
13 67 0 67 191 187
14 284 145 139 627 623
15 302 158 144 654 650
16 293 147 146 643 639
17 275 140 135 604 600
# THREAT THREAT WHITE SWIPE SWIPE BASE BASE MAX MIN MAX % MIN %
MAX MIN THREAT THREAT THREAT SWIPE SWIPE DIFF. DIFF. OF DMG OF DMG
MAX MIN THREAT THREAT
MAX MIN
1 392.7 389.1 221.9 170.8 167.2 117.8 115.3 50.8 48.3 75.8 72.1
2 609.1 601.8 437.9 171.2 163.9 118.1 113.0 51.1 46.0 76.3 68.7
3 385.5 382.7 211.7 173.8 171.0 119.9 117.9 51.9 49.9 76.3 73.4
4 396.4 393.6 223.3 173.1 170.3 119.4 117.4 51.4 49.4 75.6 72.6
5 399.1 395.5 211.7 187.4 183.8 129.2 126.8 56.2 53.8 77.0 73.7
6 390.9 387.3 219.0 171.9 168.3 118.6 116.1 51.6 49.1 77.0 73.3
7 374.5 368.2 198.7 175.8 169.5 121.2 116.9 53.2 48.9 78.2 71.9
8 392.7 385.5 219.0 173.7 166.5 119.8 114.8 52.8 47.8 78.8 71.3
9 427.3 423.6 237.8 189.5 185.8 130.7 128.1 56.7 54.1 76.6 73.1
10 380.0 376.4 208.8 171.2 167.6 118.1 115.6 51.1 48.6 76.3 72.5
11 446.4 442.7 261.0 185.4 181.7 127.9 125.3 55.9 53.3 77.6 74.0
12 170.9 167.3 0 170.9 167.3 117.9 115.4 50.9 48.4 76.0 72.2
13 173.6 170.0 0 173.6 170.0 119.7 117.2 52.7 50.2 78.7 74.9
14 570.0 556.4 211.7 358.3 344.7 247.1 237.7 108.1 98.7 77.8 71.0
15 594.5 590.9 229.1 365.4 361.8 252.0 249.5 108.0 105.5 75.0 73.3
16 584.5 580.9 213.2 371.3 367.7 256.1 253.6 110.1 107.6 75.4 73.7
17 549.1 545.1 203.0 346.1 342.1 238.7 235.9 103.7 100.9 76.8 74.7
Once again the smallest maximum difference is 50.8 and the largest minimum difference is 107.6, which creates an impossible range. So swipe appears to be affected by a threat multiplier like maul.
The range for the swipe multiplier is 1.75 to 1.749. 1.75 might be a good guess This is the exact same modifier that maul has, and since swipe and maul are your only damage causing abilities (as far as I know), we could generally say bear damage causing abilities cause damage * 1.75 threat.
So swipe's threat, like maul is calculated thus:
Swipe_Damage * 1.75 * 1.3 (or 1.45 with talent)
We also did some quick fairy fire and demo shout tests. The warlock was wimping out cause he wanted to go to sleep, so there isn't much data. Sorry. Here are the results.
Demo shout was used once. The warlock pulled with 67 damage. 63 damage did not pull.
67 / 1.1 / 1.45 = 42.0
63 / 1.1 / 1.45 = 39.5
Faery fire at one application (pulled_number / 1.1 / 1.45):
1) 180 pulled aggro. 172 did not. 112.9 max base threat. 107.8 min base threat.
2) 174 pulled aggro. 170 did not. 109.1 max base threat. 106.6 min base threat.
Faery fire at two applications (pulled_number / 1.1 / 1.45 / 2):
3) 345 pulled aggro. 341 did not. 108.2 max base threat. 106.9 min base threat.
Faery fire at four applications (pulled_number / 1.1 / 1.45 / 4):
4) 693 pulled aggro. 689 did not. 108.6 max base threat. 108.0 min base threat.
Thus, before bearform modifier:
Fairy Fire: 108.0-108.2
Demo shout: 39.5-42
The tests were preformed with me (Chibi, a warrior) using Recap, a Warlock (Impudence), and a Druid with "defiance" (Alys).
The druid initialized combat with a single maul in bear form. Enrage was not used, since I felt it could cause threat. Then the warlock would punch the mob (four damage per swing generally) until he pulled aggro. This resulted in the following data.
----------------
NORMAL MAUL
# MAUL PULLED DIDN'T THREAT THREAT BASE BASE MAX MIN MAX % MIN %
DMG PULL MAX MIN THREAT THREAT DIFF. DIFF. OF DMG OF DMG
MAX MIN
1 285 796 792 723.6 720.0 499.0 496.6 214 211.6 75.1 74.2
2 292 818 814 743.6 740.0 512.8 510.3 220.8 218.3 75.6 74.8
3 263 735 731 668.2 664.5 460.8 458.3 197.8 195.3 75.2 74.3
4 270 755 751 686.4 682.7 473.4 470.8 203.4 200.8 75.3 74.4
5 288 806 802 732.7 729.1 505.3 502.8 217.3 214.8 75.5 74.4
6 286 801 797 728.2 724.5 502.2 499.7 216.2 213.7 75.6 74.7
7 277 774 770 703.6 700.0 485.2 482.8 208.2 205.8 75.2 74.3
8 268 749 745 680.9 677.3 469.6 467.1 201.6 199.1 75.2 74.3
9 266 744 740 676.4 672.7 466.5 463.9 200.5 197.9 75.4 74.4
10 260 726 722 660.0 656.4 455.2 452.7 195.2 192.7 75.1 74.1
--------------
Threat min and max are determined by dividing damage by 1.1. 10% is the melee range stickiness, that is, the amount needed beyond the current aggro holder's threat in order to pull aggro. This was determined by various sources (including myself) in other tests.
Base threat is determined by dividing threat totals by 1.45. The 1.45 threat modifier in bear form was crudely tested beforehand, but mostly this number comes from faith in thottbot.com and the assumption that bear form works just like defensive stance for warriors.
DIFF. means difference which is determined by subtraction (duh!).
Smallest max difference: 195.2
Largest min difference: 218.3
From this impossible range we can conclude maul does not have a fixed modifier as heroic strike (similar warrior skill), but notice the beautiful final columns.
Smallest max % of damage: 75.1%
Largest min % of damage: 74.8%
I feel fairly confident saying maul provides a 1.75 threat modifier to its damage from this data.
To verify these findings and investigate the possibility of strange crit behaviour we tested a few crits using the same methods.
--------------
CRIT MAUL
# MAUL PULLED DIDN'T THREAT THREAT BASE BASE MAX MIN MAX % MIN %
DMG PULL MAX MIN THREAT THREAT DIFF. DIFF. OF DMG OF DMG
MAX MIN
1 594 1659 1651 1508.2 1500.9 1040.1 1035.1 446.1 441.1 75.1 74.3
2 575 1610 1602 1463.6 1456.4 1009.4 1004.4 434.4 429.4 75.5 74.7
3 596 1665 1661 1513.6 1510.0 1043.9 1041.4 447.9 445.4 75.2 74.7
4 587 1640 1636 1490.9 1487.3 1028.2 1025.7 441.2 438.7 75.2 74.7
--------------
Crits apparently function the same.
So threat from maul is:
Maul_Damage * 1.75 * 1.3 (or 1.45 with talent)
We went back and tested swipe.
The data is broken into two tables so that it won't be too wide.
# TOTAL WHITE SWIPE PULLED DIDN'T
DMG DMG DMG PULL
1 220 153 67 432 428
2 369 302 67 670 662
3 214 146 68 424 421
4 222 154 68 436 433
5 219 146 73 439 435
6 218 151 67 430 426
7 205 137 68 412 405
8 218 151 67 432 424
9 238 164 74 470 466
10 211 144 67 418 414
11 252 180 72 491 487
12 67 0 67 188 184
13 67 0 67 191 187
14 284 145 139 627 623
15 302 158 144 654 650
16 293 147 146 643 639
17 275 140 135 604 600
# THREAT THREAT WHITE SWIPE SWIPE BASE BASE MAX MIN MAX % MIN %
MAX MIN THREAT THREAT THREAT SWIPE SWIPE DIFF. DIFF. OF DMG OF DMG
MAX MIN THREAT THREAT
MAX MIN
1 392.7 389.1 221.9 170.8 167.2 117.8 115.3 50.8 48.3 75.8 72.1
2 609.1 601.8 437.9 171.2 163.9 118.1 113.0 51.1 46.0 76.3 68.7
3 385.5 382.7 211.7 173.8 171.0 119.9 117.9 51.9 49.9 76.3 73.4
4 396.4 393.6 223.3 173.1 170.3 119.4 117.4 51.4 49.4 75.6 72.6
5 399.1 395.5 211.7 187.4 183.8 129.2 126.8 56.2 53.8 77.0 73.7
6 390.9 387.3 219.0 171.9 168.3 118.6 116.1 51.6 49.1 77.0 73.3
7 374.5 368.2 198.7 175.8 169.5 121.2 116.9 53.2 48.9 78.2 71.9
8 392.7 385.5 219.0 173.7 166.5 119.8 114.8 52.8 47.8 78.8 71.3
9 427.3 423.6 237.8 189.5 185.8 130.7 128.1 56.7 54.1 76.6 73.1
10 380.0 376.4 208.8 171.2 167.6 118.1 115.6 51.1 48.6 76.3 72.5
11 446.4 442.7 261.0 185.4 181.7 127.9 125.3 55.9 53.3 77.6 74.0
12 170.9 167.3 0 170.9 167.3 117.9 115.4 50.9 48.4 76.0 72.2
13 173.6 170.0 0 173.6 170.0 119.7 117.2 52.7 50.2 78.7 74.9
14 570.0 556.4 211.7 358.3 344.7 247.1 237.7 108.1 98.7 77.8 71.0
15 594.5 590.9 229.1 365.4 361.8 252.0 249.5 108.0 105.5 75.0 73.3
16 584.5 580.9 213.2 371.3 367.7 256.1 253.6 110.1 107.6 75.4 73.7
17 549.1 545.1 203.0 346.1 342.1 238.7 235.9 103.7 100.9 76.8 74.7
Once again the smallest maximum difference is 50.8 and the largest minimum difference is 107.6, which creates an impossible range. So swipe appears to be affected by a threat multiplier like maul.
The range for the swipe multiplier is 1.75 to 1.749. 1.75 might be a good guess
This is the exact same modifier that maul has, and since swipe and maul are your only damage causing abilities (as far as I know), we could generally say bear damage causing abilities cause damage * 1.75 threat. So swipe's threat, like maul is calculated thus:
Swipe_Damage * 1.75 * 1.3 (or 1.45 with talent)
We also did some quick fairy fire and demo shout tests. The warlock was wimping out cause he wanted to go to sleep, so there isn't much data. Sorry. Here are the results.
Demo shout was used once. The warlock pulled with 67 damage. 63 damage did not pull.
67 / 1.1 / 1.45 = 42.0
63 / 1.1 / 1.45 = 39.5
Faery fire at one application (pulled_number / 1.1 / 1.45):
1) 180 pulled aggro. 172 did not. 112.9 max base threat. 107.8 min base threat.
2) 174 pulled aggro. 170 did not. 109.1 max base threat. 106.6 min base threat.
Faery fire at two applications (pulled_number / 1.1 / 1.45 / 2):
3) 345 pulled aggro. 341 did not. 108.2 max base threat. 106.9 min base threat.
Faery fire at four applications (pulled_number / 1.1 / 1.45 / 4):
4) 693 pulled aggro. 689 did not. 108.6 max base threat. 108.0 min base threat.
Thus, before bearform modifier:
Fairy Fire: 108.0-108.2
Demo shout: 39.5-42
