加报称中国年轻人为将来养老担忧
中国人到加拿大养老
2007年01月18日01:02 http://world.people.com.cn/GB/14549/5296299.html
加拿大《环球邮报》1月15日文章，原题：中国银发族意味着下一代人的养老金悲哀
李霞（音）很羡慕父母每月都能领到160美元的退休金。钱虽然不多，但远比李霞对自己未来退休后收入状况的期待要安全得多。
29岁的李霞在北京做会计工作，她对自己的未来毫无信心。到她退休时，中国将陷入世界历史上最严重的老龄化时期，中国的养老金体系也将面临巨大挑战。她说：“父母比我这代人幸运，我们退休之后能够得到的肯定比他们少多了。我觉得自己退休后每月只能领几百块钱，政府还可能不会全额发放退休金。我甚至不敢想象那一天。”
当中国经济热潮于上世纪80年代开始之际，中国是世界上最年轻的国家之一，每个家庭有好几个孩子，即使现在也是几个工人供养一个退休人员。正是这一点保证了中国低廉的工资和无穷无尽的劳动力供应。
但是，本世纪中叶，中国的劳动力人口将下降35%，退休人员将从现在的1.4亿人飙升至4.3亿人，超过70％的中国工人没有正式的养老金。同时，个体公司还不情愿加入养老体系，一些贪腐丑闻也使得人们降低了对地方养老体系的信任。
在富裕的西方，各国进入老龄化社会用了100年，而中国在不到40年间将完成这种转变。专家斯图亚特说：“其他国家未老先富，中国将是未富先老，这在世界历史上还不曾出现。”
中国的官员们正在考虑进行一系列的改革来加强养老金体系。目前，许多中国人更倾向于自己想办法来解决未来的养老金危机。一些人选择移民到富裕的、拥有更好养老金体系的西方国家，加拿大就是一个颇受欢迎的目的地。这里有着慷慨的养老金体系和富有吸引力的移民制度。在中国媒体上经常可以看到报道：中产阶层决定移民加拿大，以保证退休后享受较好的养老金待遇。
移民到加拿大的张小姐说：“如果退休后不想留在加拿大，我们也可以回中国享受加拿大的养老金。不管住在哪里，加拿大都将会按时给我们寄钱。”▲
（作者杰弗里・约克，伊文译）
《环球时报》 (2007-01-16 第06版)
-------------------------------------------------------
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070115.CHINA15/TPStory/?query=li+china
POSTED ON 15/01/07
Grey wall of China spells pension woes for next generation
One-child policy sets country on course for major worker shortage by mid-century
GEOFFREY YORK
BEIJING -- Li Xia is envious of her elderly parents. Their pensions are modest, only about $160 a month, yet they are more financially secure than she ever expects to be when she retires.
Ms. Li, a 29-year-old accountant in Beijing, has little faith in her future. By the time she retires, China will be mired in one of the most extraordinary periods of rapid aging in world history, and its pension system could be headed for a massive crisis.
"My parents are much luckier than my generation," she says. "What we receive when we retire will definitely be a lot less. I expect to get only a few hundred yuan [perhaps $50] a month. And I'm worried the government won't be able to pay our full pensions. I don't even dare to think about it."
For three decades, China's economic boom has been bolstered by a little-known asset: its huge population of young working-age people. When the boom began in the early 1980s, China was one of the most youthful countries in the world, with an average of six children for each family. Even today there are six workers for every retiree. It's a demographic "sweet spot" that has kept wages low and factories full, with a seemingly endless supply of millions of new workers every year.
But today that asset is disappearing. China is feeling the pinch of the one-child policy, which limits urban couples to just one offspring. Less than a decade from now, China's working-age population will begin to decline. And by the middle of the century, China's work force could shrink by as much as 35 per cent, while its retired population will soar from today's 140 million to a projected 430 million, almost a third of the total population.
Within the space of a single generation, China has become a greying society. And unlike the aging societies of North America and Europe, this is still a relatively poor country, without the resources to support a massive rise in its elderly population.
In a report this month, a Chinese state agency warns that the rapid aging of China's population could strain the social welfare system, sparking tensions between the generations and damaging social harmony.
Because of the one-child policy and rising life expectancy, a family's sole child will often be responsible for looking after two parents and four grandparents, the report says.
In the affluent West, countries have taken a century to become aging societies. China is doing it in less than 40 years.
"Other countries became rich before they became old, but China is going to become old before it becomes rich, and this is something the world has never seen before," said Stuart Leckie, a pension consultant based in Hong Kong who has advised the Chinese government on pension reform.
"The demographics are deteriorating very rapidly, and I don't think anything can stop that now," he said. "This is going to become a real burden for China."
While the average pensioner is supported by six workers today, this "dependency ratio" is swiftly eroding. By 2040, there will be only two workers to support every retired person. This spells a huge challenge for China's fragile pension system. The World Bank has estimated that China's current pension liabilities are somewhere between $1.5-trillion and $3-trillion (U.S.). Its pension assets are so minimal that they cover only 4 per cent of its future pension obligations.
Moreover, about three-quarters of Chinese workers have no formal retirement provision at all. Faced with a tattered social-safety net and an increasingly unaffordable health system, their futures will be shaky.
Private companies, meanwhile, are reluctant to join the pension system. And corruption scandals have cast doubt on the trustworthiness of local pension systems.
Chinese officials are studying a range of changes to strengthen the pension system and ease the demographic crisis, including a possible increase in the retirement age and even perhaps the abolition of the one-child policy. Those would be radical steps that could spark controversy and social instability, yet they might become necessary.
Unwilling to put their faith in the authorities, most Chinese prefer to seek their own solutions to the pension crisis. For those who can afford it, a favourite ambition is to emigrate to an affluent Western country with a stronger pension system. For many, the most popular target is Canada, a country with a generous pension program and an attractive immigration system.
There are frequent reports in the Chinese media about middle-class Chinese who decide to emigrate to Canada to guarantee themselves a better pension after retirement.
"And if we don't want to stay in Canada after we retire, we can enjoy the Canadian pension in China," a woman named Ms. Zhang told a Chinese newspaper after emigrating to Canada.
"The Canadian pension system will mail us our pension, on time, to any place where we decide to live," she boasted.
中国人到加拿大养老
2007年01月18日01:02 http://world.people.com.cn/GB/14549/5296299.html
加拿大《环球邮报》1月15日文章，原题：中国银发族意味着下一代人的养老金悲哀
李霞（音）很羡慕父母每月都能领到160美元的退休金。钱虽然不多，但远比李霞对自己未来退休后收入状况的期待要安全得多。
29岁的李霞在北京做会计工作，她对自己的未来毫无信心。到她退休时，中国将陷入世界历史上最严重的老龄化时期，中国的养老金体系也将面临巨大挑战。她说：“父母比我这代人幸运，我们退休之后能够得到的肯定比他们少多了。我觉得自己退休后每月只能领几百块钱，政府还可能不会全额发放退休金。我甚至不敢想象那一天。”
当中国经济热潮于上世纪80年代开始之际，中国是世界上最年轻的国家之一，每个家庭有好几个孩子，即使现在也是几个工人供养一个退休人员。正是这一点保证了中国低廉的工资和无穷无尽的劳动力供应。
但是，本世纪中叶，中国的劳动力人口将下降35%，退休人员将从现在的1.4亿人飙升至4.3亿人，超过70％的中国工人没有正式的养老金。同时，个体公司还不情愿加入养老体系，一些贪腐丑闻也使得人们降低了对地方养老体系的信任。
在富裕的西方，各国进入老龄化社会用了100年，而中国在不到40年间将完成这种转变。专家斯图亚特说：“其他国家未老先富，中国将是未富先老，这在世界历史上还不曾出现。”
中国的官员们正在考虑进行一系列的改革来加强养老金体系。目前，许多中国人更倾向于自己想办法来解决未来的养老金危机。一些人选择移民到富裕的、拥有更好养老金体系的西方国家，加拿大就是一个颇受欢迎的目的地。这里有着慷慨的养老金体系和富有吸引力的移民制度。在中国媒体上经常可以看到报道：中产阶层决定移民加拿大，以保证退休后享受较好的养老金待遇。
移民到加拿大的张小姐说：“如果退休后不想留在加拿大，我们也可以回中国享受加拿大的养老金。不管住在哪里，加拿大都将会按时给我们寄钱。”▲
（作者杰弗里・约克，伊文译）
《环球时报》 (2007-01-16 第06版)
-------------------------------------------------------
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070115.CHINA15/TPStory/?query=li+china
POSTED ON 15/01/07
Grey wall of China spells pension woes for next generation
One-child policy sets country on course for major worker shortage by mid-century
GEOFFREY YORK
BEIJING -- Li Xia is envious of her elderly parents. Their pensions are modest, only about $160 a month, yet they are more financially secure than she ever expects to be when she retires.
Ms. Li, a 29-year-old accountant in Beijing, has little faith in her future. By the time she retires, China will be mired in one of the most extraordinary periods of rapid aging in world history, and its pension system could be headed for a massive crisis.
"My parents are much luckier than my generation," she says. "What we receive when we retire will definitely be a lot less. I expect to get only a few hundred yuan [perhaps $50] a month. And I'm worried the government won't be able to pay our full pensions. I don't even dare to think about it."
For three decades, China's economic boom has been bolstered by a little-known asset: its huge population of young working-age people. When the boom began in the early 1980s, China was one of the most youthful countries in the world, with an average of six children for each family. Even today there are six workers for every retiree. It's a demographic "sweet spot" that has kept wages low and factories full, with a seemingly endless supply of millions of new workers every year.
But today that asset is disappearing. China is feeling the pinch of the one-child policy, which limits urban couples to just one offspring. Less than a decade from now, China's working-age population will begin to decline. And by the middle of the century, China's work force could shrink by as much as 35 per cent, while its retired population will soar from today's 140 million to a projected 430 million, almost a third of the total population.
Within the space of a single generation, China has become a greying society. And unlike the aging societies of North America and Europe, this is still a relatively poor country, without the resources to support a massive rise in its elderly population.
In a report this month, a Chinese state agency warns that the rapid aging of China's population could strain the social welfare system, sparking tensions between the generations and damaging social harmony.
Because of the one-child policy and rising life expectancy, a family's sole child will often be responsible for looking after two parents and four grandparents, the report says.
In the affluent West, countries have taken a century to become aging societies. China is doing it in less than 40 years.
"Other countries became rich before they became old, but China is going to become old before it becomes rich, and this is something the world has never seen before," said Stuart Leckie, a pension consultant based in Hong Kong who has advised the Chinese government on pension reform.
"The demographics are deteriorating very rapidly, and I don't think anything can stop that now," he said. "This is going to become a real burden for China."
While the average pensioner is supported by six workers today, this "dependency ratio" is swiftly eroding. By 2040, there will be only two workers to support every retired person. This spells a huge challenge for China's fragile pension system. The World Bank has estimated that China's current pension liabilities are somewhere between $1.5-trillion and $3-trillion (U.S.). Its pension assets are so minimal that they cover only 4 per cent of its future pension obligations.
Moreover, about three-quarters of Chinese workers have no formal retirement provision at all. Faced with a tattered social-safety net and an increasingly unaffordable health system, their futures will be shaky.
Private companies, meanwhile, are reluctant to join the pension system. And corruption scandals have cast doubt on the trustworthiness of local pension systems.
Chinese officials are studying a range of changes to strengthen the pension system and ease the demographic crisis, including a possible increase in the retirement age and even perhaps the abolition of the one-child policy. Those would be radical steps that could spark controversy and social instability, yet they might become necessary.
Unwilling to put their faith in the authorities, most Chinese prefer to seek their own solutions to the pension crisis. For those who can afford it, a favourite ambition is to emigrate to an affluent Western country with a stronger pension system. For many, the most popular target is Canada, a country with a generous pension program and an attractive immigration system.
There are frequent reports in the Chinese media about middle-class Chinese who decide to emigrate to Canada to guarantee themselves a better pension after retirement.
"And if we don't want to stay in Canada after we retire, we can enjoy the Canadian pension in China," a woman named Ms. Zhang told a Chinese newspaper after emigrating to Canada.
"The Canadian pension system will mail us our pension, on time, to any place where we decide to live," she boasted.
