One China Policy (part 2)
Mr. Kelly was, of course, articulating American policy-what the United States would support, or oppose-and, as the critics rightly sensed, he was trying to convey an important message especially to Taiwan. His statement came, you will recall, in the wake of a presidential election campaign in Taiwan that was characterized by proposals for Taiwan to "walk on its own path" and to write a "new constitution." In such circumstances, it should not have been surprising that Washington would voice its concerns. President Bush had done so the previous December by publicly chastising President Chen Shui-bian during an Oval Office visit by PRC Premier Wen Jiabao. And now Mr. Kelly did. And, in fact, President Chen seemed to take this into account now that the campaign was over, and he subsequently abandoned his most radical proposals when he delivered his inaugural address in May, although as time went on, he revisited some of them.
Promoting Peaceful Resolution. Fundamental to the U.S. approach is insistence that ultimate resolution of Taiwan's relationship with the Mainland should be worked out by the two sides, themselves. This represents an evolution from President Truman's announcement in June 1950, at the outset of the Korean War that
The determination of the future status of Formosa must await the restoration of security in the Pacific, a peace settlement with Japan, or consideration by the United Nations.
Over time, even before Henry Kissinger's secret trip to Beijing in July 1971, the insistence on some international involvement waned, and it became established American policy, as I said, that the United States could live with any resolution of cross-Strait relations worked out peacefully between the two sides. This position was enshrined in the various U.S.-PRC Normalization documents that were crafted over the Nixon, Carter and Reagan years, and it has been endorsed by every American President since.
Why does the United States not take a position on what the ultimate relationship between Taiwan and the Mainland should be? For one thing, what position would we take? To favor unification, even peaceful unification? Are Americans to tell the people of Taiwan that they are consigned by our decision to a future as part of a country they have not chosen to be part of? Moreover, unlikely as it may seem today, why would we preemptively oppose Taiwan independence if the two sides could agree on it? Indeed, I believe that, while most Americans support the current policy because they understand how dangerous it would be to advocate or support or even tolerate independence, they would be very happy if independence were the eventual outcome.
On the other hand, are we to tell the people of Taiwan-or of the Mainland, for that matter-that some form of reunification is unacceptable? How could we oppose unification if the two sides agreed on it? We might have views about such an outcome; we might even have strong concerns about aspects of it.
But whatever those views and concerns, fundamentally the United States has taken the position that it does not have the right to determine this issue at the end of the day. At the end of the day, this is "their" issue, not ours, and it should be decided by the people on both sides of the Strait, not by the United States.
At the same time, it is important to underscore that, because confrontation would directly affect vital American strategic interests, the United States would, and does, oppose-actively and with considerable determination-any step by either side that could upset peace and stability and risk war.
So, the "one China" policy consists of:
* Not an active embracing of the proposition that there is "one China" of which Taiwan is a part, but a commitment not to challenge that position and to act consistent with it to the extent possible. That means no support for "two Chinas" or "one China, one Taiwan." It means maintaining only unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan, but in a way that promotes robust interaction across the entire spectrum of human activity, including even the sale of carefully selected defensive weapons and equipment and other exchanges relating to Taiwan's security. And of course, we have professional but unofficial representation in Taiwan and in the United States that carries out a broad range of activities.
* Recognition of the government of the People's Republic of China as the "sole legal government of China," but not acceptance that that government represents or speaks for the people of Taiwan in the international community.
* A more or less agnostic stand on the shape of the ultimate relationship between Taiwan and the Mainland, but a firm view that reaching that final state, and managing cross-Strait relations in the meantime, should be carried out in a non-provocative, uncoerced, and peaceful way.
* A requirement that neither side seek to change the status quo of peace and stability in the Strait or impose its own definition of the status quo on the other side or on the international community.
* And, assuming peace and stability are maintained and that provocations and coercion are avoided, the recognition that it is up to the two sides to determine their relationship, both for the time being and in the course of reaching any ultimate settlement.
Coping with the "one China" policy
As viewed from the PRC. I believe that this policy accords not only with American interests but with the fundamental interests of both sides of the Strait. Looking at it from the PRC perspective, I think the policy contributes importantly to maintaining the peaceful and stable environment that the PRC needs to achieve its priority goal of economic development. Consistent with this priority, the PRC has changed its approach, moving decisively away from a policy of near-term unification and focusing, instead, on blocking independence as it strives to win hearts and minds in Taiwan. As a result, the pressures leading to possible conflict have abated. The People's Liberation Army-the PLA, continues to modernize and expand its capabilities, and would not, in my judgment, hesitate to use them if deemed necessary. But I see no basis for believing that the PRC would find it in its interest to initiate conflict if Taiwan does not move toward what has come to be called de jure independence through constitutional change.
That said, the United States and others continue to be concerned about the expanding PLA forces opposite Taiwan, and we continue to prepare to confront them if necessary.
As viewed from Taiwan. In fact, however, the greater concerns in recent years have been what are seen as independence-oriented steps in Taiwan that could potentially cross the line of PRC tolerance.
To many people in Taiwan, U.S. rejection under the "one China" policy of steps supported by a majority in Taiwan is unfair in principle and unwise in practice. In principle, they say, it represents a betrayal of America's own values and its commitment to democracy; in practice, they say, Washington's realpolitik approach to relations with the PRC gives Beijing the whip hand not only on Taiwan matters but on other pressing international issues, as well.
They argue further that U.S. policy will not preserve the status quo, even as the U.S. defines it, i.e., the maintenance of peace and stability. If Taiwan does not take steps now, perhaps not to immediately change the constitution but at least to gain international acceptance as a "state" separate from the PRC, and to deepen the sense of "Taiwanese identity" on the island, then over time-perhaps not such a long time-Taiwan will lack the strength to resist the PRC's intimidation and inducement, if not the outright use of force. Growing PRC military, economic and political strength will alter what the Soviets used to call the "correlation of forces," tilting the table toward an inevitability of unification.
The United States is hardly unaware of PLA modernization and has for several years been pressing Taiwan to take urgently needed measures to bolster its self-defense capability. At long last we may have seen some meaningful progress with the passage of a defense budget this summer. Still, Americans would generally argue, together with President Chen Shui-bian, that Taiwan's greatest strength against unwanted takeover is not its military strength, but its political and economic vibrance and viability. Where we part company from President Chen, and even more from some others in his party who go to the extreme of wanting to declare independence today, is that we believe pressing on the issue of Taiwan's "status" is not the path to more meaningful democracy and security, but rather a provocative path that increases the possibility the PRC will opt for non-peaceful means while at the same time it erodes the sympathy of the international community and its potential willingness to help resist.
Joining the UN "in the name of 'Taiwan'"
No provocation. The issue that has caught everyone's attention lately is the proposed referendum put forth by President Chen's ruling Democratic Progressive Party or DPP, and pressed very strongly by Mr. Chen personally, on joining the United Nations as a new member under the name "Taiwan." Not only because it is an example of the kind of issue that could precipitate a serious problem in theory, but because it is a very real issue in the triangular relationship today, I want to take a few minutes to talk about it specifically.
Mr. Kelly was, of course, articulating American policy-what the United States would support, or oppose-and, as the critics rightly sensed, he was trying to convey an important message especially to Taiwan. His statement came, you will recall, in the wake of a presidential election campaign in Taiwan that was characterized by proposals for Taiwan to "walk on its own path" and to write a "new constitution." In such circumstances, it should not have been surprising that Washington would voice its concerns. President Bush had done so the previous December by publicly chastising President Chen Shui-bian during an Oval Office visit by PRC Premier Wen Jiabao. And now Mr. Kelly did. And, in fact, President Chen seemed to take this into account now that the campaign was over, and he subsequently abandoned his most radical proposals when he delivered his inaugural address in May, although as time went on, he revisited some of them.
Promoting Peaceful Resolution. Fundamental to the U.S. approach is insistence that ultimate resolution of Taiwan's relationship with the Mainland should be worked out by the two sides, themselves. This represents an evolution from President Truman's announcement in June 1950, at the outset of the Korean War that
The determination of the future status of Formosa must await the restoration of security in the Pacific, a peace settlement with Japan, or consideration by the United Nations.
Over time, even before Henry Kissinger's secret trip to Beijing in July 1971, the insistence on some international involvement waned, and it became established American policy, as I said, that the United States could live with any resolution of cross-Strait relations worked out peacefully between the two sides. This position was enshrined in the various U.S.-PRC Normalization documents that were crafted over the Nixon, Carter and Reagan years, and it has been endorsed by every American President since.
Why does the United States not take a position on what the ultimate relationship between Taiwan and the Mainland should be? For one thing, what position would we take? To favor unification, even peaceful unification? Are Americans to tell the people of Taiwan that they are consigned by our decision to a future as part of a country they have not chosen to be part of? Moreover, unlikely as it may seem today, why would we preemptively oppose Taiwan independence if the two sides could agree on it? Indeed, I believe that, while most Americans support the current policy because they understand how dangerous it would be to advocate or support or even tolerate independence, they would be very happy if independence were the eventual outcome.
On the other hand, are we to tell the people of Taiwan-or of the Mainland, for that matter-that some form of reunification is unacceptable? How could we oppose unification if the two sides agreed on it? We might have views about such an outcome; we might even have strong concerns about aspects of it.
But whatever those views and concerns, fundamentally the United States has taken the position that it does not have the right to determine this issue at the end of the day. At the end of the day, this is "their" issue, not ours, and it should be decided by the people on both sides of the Strait, not by the United States.
At the same time, it is important to underscore that, because confrontation would directly affect vital American strategic interests, the United States would, and does, oppose-actively and with considerable determination-any step by either side that could upset peace and stability and risk war.
So, the "one China" policy consists of:
* Not an active embracing of the proposition that there is "one China" of which Taiwan is a part, but a commitment not to challenge that position and to act consistent with it to the extent possible. That means no support for "two Chinas" or "one China, one Taiwan." It means maintaining only unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan, but in a way that promotes robust interaction across the entire spectrum of human activity, including even the sale of carefully selected defensive weapons and equipment and other exchanges relating to Taiwan's security. And of course, we have professional but unofficial representation in Taiwan and in the United States that carries out a broad range of activities.
* Recognition of the government of the People's Republic of China as the "sole legal government of China," but not acceptance that that government represents or speaks for the people of Taiwan in the international community.
* A more or less agnostic stand on the shape of the ultimate relationship between Taiwan and the Mainland, but a firm view that reaching that final state, and managing cross-Strait relations in the meantime, should be carried out in a non-provocative, uncoerced, and peaceful way.
* A requirement that neither side seek to change the status quo of peace and stability in the Strait or impose its own definition of the status quo on the other side or on the international community.
* And, assuming peace and stability are maintained and that provocations and coercion are avoided, the recognition that it is up to the two sides to determine their relationship, both for the time being and in the course of reaching any ultimate settlement.
Coping with the "one China" policy
As viewed from the PRC. I believe that this policy accords not only with American interests but with the fundamental interests of both sides of the Strait. Looking at it from the PRC perspective, I think the policy contributes importantly to maintaining the peaceful and stable environment that the PRC needs to achieve its priority goal of economic development. Consistent with this priority, the PRC has changed its approach, moving decisively away from a policy of near-term unification and focusing, instead, on blocking independence as it strives to win hearts and minds in Taiwan. As a result, the pressures leading to possible conflict have abated. The People's Liberation Army-the PLA, continues to modernize and expand its capabilities, and would not, in my judgment, hesitate to use them if deemed necessary. But I see no basis for believing that the PRC would find it in its interest to initiate conflict if Taiwan does not move toward what has come to be called de jure independence through constitutional change.
That said, the United States and others continue to be concerned about the expanding PLA forces opposite Taiwan, and we continue to prepare to confront them if necessary.
As viewed from Taiwan. In fact, however, the greater concerns in recent years have been what are seen as independence-oriented steps in Taiwan that could potentially cross the line of PRC tolerance.
To many people in Taiwan, U.S. rejection under the "one China" policy of steps supported by a majority in Taiwan is unfair in principle and unwise in practice. In principle, they say, it represents a betrayal of America's own values and its commitment to democracy; in practice, they say, Washington's realpolitik approach to relations with the PRC gives Beijing the whip hand not only on Taiwan matters but on other pressing international issues, as well.
They argue further that U.S. policy will not preserve the status quo, even as the U.S. defines it, i.e., the maintenance of peace and stability. If Taiwan does not take steps now, perhaps not to immediately change the constitution but at least to gain international acceptance as a "state" separate from the PRC, and to deepen the sense of "Taiwanese identity" on the island, then over time-perhaps not such a long time-Taiwan will lack the strength to resist the PRC's intimidation and inducement, if not the outright use of force. Growing PRC military, economic and political strength will alter what the Soviets used to call the "correlation of forces," tilting the table toward an inevitability of unification.
The United States is hardly unaware of PLA modernization and has for several years been pressing Taiwan to take urgently needed measures to bolster its self-defense capability. At long last we may have seen some meaningful progress with the passage of a defense budget this summer. Still, Americans would generally argue, together with President Chen Shui-bian, that Taiwan's greatest strength against unwanted takeover is not its military strength, but its political and economic vibrance and viability. Where we part company from President Chen, and even more from some others in his party who go to the extreme of wanting to declare independence today, is that we believe pressing on the issue of Taiwan's "status" is not the path to more meaningful democracy and security, but rather a provocative path that increases the possibility the PRC will opt for non-peaceful means while at the same time it erodes the sympathy of the international community and its potential willingness to help resist.
Joining the UN "in the name of 'Taiwan'"
No provocation. The issue that has caught everyone's attention lately is the proposed referendum put forth by President Chen's ruling Democratic Progressive Party or DPP, and pressed very strongly by Mr. Chen personally, on joining the United Nations as a new member under the name "Taiwan." Not only because it is an example of the kind of issue that could precipitate a serious problem in theory, but because it is a very real issue in the triangular relationship today, I want to take a few minutes to talk about it specifically.
