中国股市将面临重大冲击2008

[lucky boy]

Chinese stock market faces serious challenge in 2008​

([FONT=宋体]中国股市面临重大冲击[/FONT])

Five reasons cause Chinese stock market will plunge in 2008.

Firstly, oversea cash outflow
According to U.S. subprime crisis, several largest U.S. investment corporations face a big lost in 2007 especially in the fourth quarter. For instance, Citigroup Inc. which is the largest bank all over the world, it had lost about US $10 billion in the fourth quarter of 2007 as it wrote down mountains of bad mortgage assets. At the same time, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and UBS face a terrible lost during the subprime crisis. Therefore, Wall Street would withdraw a great amount of money from Chinese stock market to support their national business even it can earn profit in China.

Secondly, “Sanhu” lack of enough cash to continue supporting the stock market
At the end of October 2007, there are four largest IPO in the Chinese stock market, including[FONT=宋体]宁波银行、中海油服、中国神华、中国石油[/FONT]. They collect about RMB100billion from financial market. They are called[FONT=宋体]中国股市四大[/FONT]“[FONT=宋体]绞肉机[/FONT]”. [FONT=宋体]这四只股票将机构和散户手中大部分流动资金深度套牢[/FONT]. For example, PetroChina stock price is decreasing from RMB 40 to 24 which is go down about 40% during past three months. Therefore, investors lost motive to continue supporting Chinese financial market. Recently, [FONT=宋体]平安保险拟于[/FONT]A[FONT=宋体]股市场融资[/FONT]RMB1500[FONT=宋体]亿[/FONT], [FONT=宋体]无疑是给本身流动资金短缺的金融市场雪上加霜[/FONT], [FONT=宋体]对股市必将造成很大的冲击[/FONT].

Thirdly, fund redeem([FONT=宋体]基金赎回[/FONT])
When the stock market appears shaking due to several unstable economic factors, investors would like to redeem their funds to keep profits. Although the fund is more stable than stocks, it still has some risks. Usually, the fund corporation do not hold large amount of money on their hands. When investors want to redeem, the corporation will sell off stocks to get cash. The big sell off would be a signal that resulting in several translation glossary in the financial market. According to basic economic principles, when the quantity of offers is much greater than bids, stock price would decrease further.

Fourth, high CPI and real estate
[FONT=宋体]近期[/FONT], [FONT=宋体]通货膨胀和房地产过热[/FONT]. Chinese federal government and central bank will reduce the inflation through strengthen Macro-control such as increase interest rate and required reserve [FONT=宋体]进一步[/FONT]ratio in 2008. [FONT=宋体]如果通货膨胀加剧[/FONT],[FONT=宋体]中央一定会出重拳加以干涉[/FONT],[FONT=宋体]股市必将受到重大冲击[/FONT].

Finally, the recent natural disasters
Recently, the heavily snow in several provinces will directly reduce the Chinese expected GDP growth rate in 2008. It will have some serious influence in the telecommunications, transportation and agricultural industries.

[FONT=宋体]根据综上所述[/FONT], [FONT=宋体]我们有足够的理由相信[/FONT][FONT=宋体]中国股市将面临重大冲击[/FONT]2008[FONT=宋体]年[/FONT]. [FONT=宋体]上证指数将会跌破[/FONT]4000[FONT=宋体]点大关[/FONT] in second quarter of 2008, investors [FONT=宋体]必将引起恐慌导致[/FONT]big sell off. [FONT=宋体]股民的盲目抛售会继续导致股票下跌[/FONT],[FONT=宋体]预计[/FONT]Shanghai index will around 3500 points in the third quarter. [FONT=宋体]从总体上来看[/FONT],[FONT=宋体]中国的发展前景还是好的[/FONT], investors may buy some stocks when the index around 3500 points for the mid-term and long term investments.