这两个星期房市又有点火了
- 主题发起人 小珊瑚
- 开始时间
DanceWithWolf
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确实如此，我也注意到了好几个。甚至价格越卖越高的。
ZT: From National Post
House prices overvalued by up to 25%, study warns
Eric Beauchesne, Canwest News Service Published: Monday, September 08, 2008
OTTAWA -- Canadian homeowners should be prepared for a fall in housing prices, warns a study that estimates homes in most cities are overvalued, and by as much as 25%.
With the exception of Toronto and Edmonton, houses in Canada's major cities are overvalued by anywhere from $32,000 to $87,000, says the study of prices in nine cities by researchers at the Sauder School of Business at the University of British Columbia.
The study, released Monday, looked at prices for single-family homes in the second quarter of this year in nine major Canadian cities, and compared prices in those cities with what they would be in a balanced market based on the relationship between house prices and rents.
Only in Toronto are prices in balance with rents, the study concluded. In Halifax, Montreal, Ottawa, Regina and Winnipeg prices would need to drop by at least 20% to be in balance and in Calgary by 7% and in Vancouver by 11%.
In contrast, Edmonton prices are actually below equilibrium, and would have to rise by 8% to be in balance, it said.
"The decade long boom in Canadian markets is over," Tsur Somerville, the study's lead author.
Housing affordability is a severe problem in some Canadian cities, limiting the ability of markets to continue to rise, says the report titled "Are Canadian Housing Markets Overpriced?"
The rapid price increases in many Canadian cities since 2001 along with the downturn in the U.S. housing market has raised concerns about the future of housing markets here, it noted.
"There are parallels between the path of house prices in Canadian and U.S. markets," it said. During the U.S. housing boom, which ran from 1997 to 2006, prices rose 132%, while in Canada over the 2001-08 boom prices in the nine cities rose by an average of 87%.
While Canada's more conservative lending practices have prevented the speculative excess and severe downturn experienced in U.S. markets, they haven't prevented homes from becoming overpriced, it said.
The assessment of whether a housing market is in balance or equilibrium takes into account the ratio of rent to prices, mortgage rates and the cost of owning a house, and the expected long-term price appreciation.
In dollar terms, the amount by which house prices would have to fall to bring them back into balance in each of the overpriced cities was: Calgary $32,000, Halifax $58,000, Montreal $68,000, Ottawa $81,000, Regina $87,000, Vancouver $85,000 and Winnipeg $74,000.
That houses are overpriced doesn't, however, guarantee that they will fall, it said.
"Instead the market could return to equilibrium through an extended period of housing price appreciation that is above zero, but below the long run rate," it said.
The potential for price declines is greatest in cities that have a large supply of unsold inventory or a mismatch between the number of units and the number of households ready to occupy them, it says, adding that by that criteria Vancouver is the most at risk of a housing price correction, though compared with most of the other cities the decline would be relatively moderate.
While the study looked at prices for single-family homes, it noted that a concern in some housing markets is that the buyers of units are not living in them, it added.
"If markets turn, these investor-buyers might behave in a manner akin to other asset markets, dumping their units to avoid future greater perceived price declines," it said. "In contrast, owner occupiers, unless forced to sell, can remain in their units and wait out a weak market."
In contrast, prices in Edmonton would have to rise by $32,000 to bring them back into balance, and that's despite what has been an annual increase in prices of 13.4% during the 2001-08 housing boom.
Annual price increases during the 2001-08 housing boom for the other cities studied were 14.5% in Regina, 12.4% in Calgary, 10.6% in Vancouver, 10.2% in Winnipeg, 8.1% in Montreal, 5.7% in Halifax, 5.7% in Ottawa, and 7.2% in Toronto.
House prices overvalued by up to 25%, study warns
Eric Beauchesne, Canwest News Service Published: Monday, September 08, 2008
OTTAWA -- Canadian homeowners should be prepared for a fall in housing prices, warns a study that estimates homes in most cities are overvalued, and by as much as 25%.
With the exception of Toronto and Edmonton, houses in Canada's major cities are overvalued by anywhere from $32,000 to $87,000, says the study of prices in nine cities by researchers at the Sauder School of Business at the University of British Columbia.
The study, released Monday, looked at prices for single-family homes in the second quarter of this year in nine major Canadian cities, and compared prices in those cities with what they would be in a balanced market based on the relationship between house prices and rents.
Only in Toronto are prices in balance with rents, the study concluded. In Halifax, Montreal, Ottawa, Regina and Winnipeg prices would need to drop by at least 20% to be in balance and in Calgary by 7% and in Vancouver by 11%.
In contrast, Edmonton prices are actually below equilibrium, and would have to rise by 8% to be in balance, it said.
"The decade long boom in Canadian markets is over," Tsur Somerville, the study's lead author.
Housing affordability is a severe problem in some Canadian cities, limiting the ability of markets to continue to rise, says the report titled "Are Canadian Housing Markets Overpriced?"
The rapid price increases in many Canadian cities since 2001 along with the downturn in the U.S. housing market has raised concerns about the future of housing markets here, it noted.
"There are parallels between the path of house prices in Canadian and U.S. markets," it said. During the U.S. housing boom, which ran from 1997 to 2006, prices rose 132%, while in Canada over the 2001-08 boom prices in the nine cities rose by an average of 87%.
While Canada's more conservative lending practices have prevented the speculative excess and severe downturn experienced in U.S. markets, they haven't prevented homes from becoming overpriced, it said.
The assessment of whether a housing market is in balance or equilibrium takes into account the ratio of rent to prices, mortgage rates and the cost of owning a house, and the expected long-term price appreciation.
In dollar terms, the amount by which house prices would have to fall to bring them back into balance in each of the overpriced cities was: Calgary $32,000, Halifax $58,000, Montreal $68,000, Ottawa $81,000, Regina $87,000, Vancouver $85,000 and Winnipeg $74,000.
That houses are overpriced doesn't, however, guarantee that they will fall, it said.
"Instead the market could return to equilibrium through an extended period of housing price appreciation that is above zero, but below the long run rate," it said.
The potential for price declines is greatest in cities that have a large supply of unsold inventory or a mismatch between the number of units and the number of households ready to occupy them, it says, adding that by that criteria Vancouver is the most at risk of a housing price correction, though compared with most of the other cities the decline would be relatively moderate.
While the study looked at prices for single-family homes, it noted that a concern in some housing markets is that the buyers of units are not living in them, it added.
"If markets turn, these investor-buyers might behave in a manner akin to other asset markets, dumping their units to avoid future greater perceived price declines," it said. "In contrast, owner occupiers, unless forced to sell, can remain in their units and wait out a weak market."
In contrast, prices in Edmonton would have to rise by $32,000 to bring them back into balance, and that's despite what has been an annual increase in prices of 13.4% during the 2001-08 housing boom.
Annual price increases during the 2001-08 housing boom for the other cities studied were 14.5% in Regina, 12.4% in Calgary, 10.6% in Vancouver, 10.2% in Winnipeg, 8.1% in Montreal, 5.7% in Halifax, 5.7% in Ottawa, and 7.2% in Toronto.
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房子价格只要不是BUBBLE肯定只会升不会降~除非是这个区域有重大问题~(比如新的LANDFILL)
10年前渥太华SINGLE平均20万的时候大家就已经在说会不会降的了~结果现在平均基本都是35万了~
原因
1.土地价格肯定不会降
2.人工价格肯定不会降
3.原材料价格肯定不会降
加拿大经济来说房价每年都有5-6%的INFLATION增幅~所以担心房价降是多余的~有时投资来说未必合适~
除非价格已经是泡沫~
另外房子是不动产~增值不能只等MARKET~自己给房子增值也是INVESTMENT~
10年前渥太华SINGLE平均20万的时候大家就已经在说会不会降的了~结果现在平均基本都是35万了~
原因
1.土地价格肯定不会降
2.人工价格肯定不会降
3.原材料价格肯定不会降
加拿大经济来说房价每年都有5-6%的INFLATION增幅~所以担心房价降是多余的~有时投资来说未必合适~
除非价格已经是泡沫~
另外房子是不动产~增值不能只等MARKET~自己给房子增值也是INVESTMENT~
At very long term like 100 years. House price should only raise as same rate at inflation rate. Otherwise nobody would able to afford house. It is basically a force saving account with inflation protecting feature. You have to live in it, you can't live without it, so it is not a investment. It is a saving account only could be cashed out when you die. So buy it as what you like to enjoy.
Second house you rent out is a investment. So buy it like a investment.
Second house you rent out is a investment. So buy it like a investment.
