OTTAWA房价走势-50年一观

[巴菲]

从历史的角度来看，原来近几年OTTAWA房价的总增长量还是算低的哦！下面是OREB的统计数据...

YEAR AVG SALES PRICE % CHANGE
1956 " $ 13,351 " 0.2
1957 " $ 14,230 " 6.6
1958 " $ 15,564 " 9.3
1959 " $ 16,038 " 3.1
1960 " $ 16,791 " 4.7
1961 " $ 16,070 " -4.3
1962 " $ 15,952 " -0.7
1963 " $ 16,549 " 3.7
1964 " $ 16,563 " 0.1
1965 "$17,056" 3
1966 "$18,004" 5.6
1967 "$19,476" 8.2
1968 "$23,329" 19.8
1969 "$25,652" 10
1970 "$26,532" 3.4
1971 "$27,808" 4.8
1972 "$30,576" 10
1973 "$38,305" 25.3
1974 "$46,661" 21.8
1975 "$49,633" 6.4
1976 "$54,623" 10.1
1977 "$57,032" 4.4
1978 "$59,134" 3.7
1979 "$61,896" 4.7
1980 "$62,748" 1.4
1981 "$64,896" 3.4
1982 "$71,080" 9.5
1983 "$86,245" 21.3
1984 "$102,084" 18.4
1985 "$107,306" 5.1
1986 "$111,643" 4
1987 "$119,612" 7.1
1988 "$128,434" 7.4
1989 "$137,455" 7
1990 "$141,438" 2.9
1991 "$143,361" 1.4
1992 "$143,868" 0.4
1993 "$148,129" 3
1994 "$147,543" -0.4
1995 "$143,193" -2.9
1996 "$140,534" -1.9
1997 "$143,873" 2.4
1998 "$143,953" 0.1
1999 "$149,650" 4
2000 "$159,511" 6.6
2001 "$175,971" 10.3
2002 "$200,711" 14.1
2003 "$218,692" 9
2004 "$235,678" 7.8
2005 "$244,531" 3.8
2006 "$255,889" 4.7
2007 "$272,618" 6.4
2008 "$290,366" 6.6

 

[harry]

感觉明年该降价了。

 

[Pontiac1998]

Assume:
inflation rate: 4%/year
investment required return rate: 4%/year
Combination rate: 8.16%
That means, the purchasing power of $50.50 today = $1's in 1956.
If you want your property, $13,351 in 1956, to remain the same value, the property should be sold at $674,291 today.

Now, you may figured out if investment in houses is a good option. Don't be misled.

(1.0816^50 = 50.50)

 

[ccc]

1956 " $ 13,351 " 0.2
1957 " $ 14,230 " 6.6
1958 " $ 15,564 " 9.3
1959 " $ 16,038 " 3.1
1960 " $ 16,791 " 4.7
1961 " $ 16,070 " -4.3
1962 " $ 15,952 " -0.7
1963 " $ 16,549 " 3.7
1964 " $ 16,563 " 0.1
1965 "$17,056" 3
1966 "$18,004" 5.6
1967 "$19,476" 8.2
1968 "$23,329" 19.8
1969 "$25,652" 10
1970 "$26,532" 3.4 (14 years)
1971 "$27,808" 4.8
1972 "$30,576" 10
1973 "$38,305" 25.3
1974 "$46,661" 21.8
1975 "$49,633" 6.4
1976 "$54,623" 10.1 (6 years)
1977 "$57,032" 4.4
1978 "$59,134" 3.7
1979 "$61,896" 4.7
1980 "$62,748" 1.4
1981 "$64,896" 3.4
1982 "$71,080" 9.5
1983 "$86,245" 21.3
1984 "$102,084" 18.4
1985 "$107,306" 5.1 (9 years)
1986 "$111,643" 4
1987 "$119,612" 7.1
1988 "$128,434" 7.4
1989 "$137,455" 7
1990 "$141,438" 2.9
1991 "$143,361" 1.4
1992 "$143,868" 0.4
1993 "$148,129" 3
1994 "$147,543" -0.4
1995 "$143,193" -2.9
1996 "$140,534" -1.9
1997 "$143,873" 2.4
1998 "$143,953" 0.1
1999 "$149,650" 4
2000 "$159,511" 6.6
2001 "$175,971" 10.3
2002 "$200,711" 14.1
2003 "$218,692" 9 (18 years)
2004 "$235,678" 7.8
2005 "$244,531" 3.8
2006 "$255,889" 4.7
2007 "$272,618" 6.4
2008 "$290,366" 6.6

1956 "$ 13,351 " -> 2008 "$290,366" (vs $674,291 as calculated above)

 

[小珊瑚]

It still make sense for investment in house in the long term.
The calculation above also neglects the leverage effect of RE.(Means you only pay 20% down payment, the monthly payment of interest could be treated as rent).

While it does not mean Ottawa price could not plunge. Remember past performance could not provide indication for the future. We will see a 20%-30% correction from the high of June 2008 in the next 2 years. After that the price will be stable and with the inflation kick in, it may continue to edge up slowly. JMHO

 

[Pontiac1998]

It still make sense for investment in house in the long term.
The calculation above also neglects the leverage effect of RE.(Means you only pay 20% down payment, the monthly payment of interest could be treated as rent).

While it does not mean Ottawa price could not plunge. Remember past performance could not provide indication for the future. We will see a 20%-30% correction from the high of June 2008 in the next 2 years. After that the price will be stable and with the inflation kick in, it may continue to edge up slowly. JMHO

The calculation given above is just for a quick reference. In fact, many factors need to be considered, like taxes, maintenance costs for a 50 years period, etc. Then, you may apply NPV method to have a number, and you will agree with me. Also, the inflation rate 4% is very conservative. In the past 50 years, a few times, inflation rates are higher than 20%.

 

[ccc]

... In the past 50 years, a few times, inflation rates are higher than 20%.

Wow, 20%. Can you list the inflation rates in the past 50-year period too? Thanks!

 

[haoyz]

this list is some kind of mislead information

Because it only list the average price. This is a big problem.

Gerenarly,when the price go down, we could suppose there are a high ratio between high price and low price properties on the market(because the high price property has a high amount mortage than low price home, the owner will be influence more by the home price).
This will make the avarage price not change too sharp. For example ,
the high price property go down 20%, perhaps, this list only reflect a average -4%, this is also reasonable.
Based on this suppose, I believe the rate for every year are no meaning. So, when the price go down, we must fell the price change much more shraply than this list. But reflected in this list only for average rate, it will lower than our felling.

 

[Pontiac1998]

Wow, 20%. Can you list the inflation rates in the past 50-year period too? Thanks!

I remember the last time happened in 1990s, back further in 1980s. You may go TD's relevant website to have a full look.

 

[ccc]

I remember the last time happened in 1990s, back further in 1980s. You may go TD's relevant website to have a full look.

It looks like the highest inflation rate was a little over 14%, see the charts. (十二记成二十了吧？）

 

[koit]

The question is : If you don't buy a house, what should you invest on?

 

[Pontiac1998]

To CCC:

I can be wrong, but I don't think I have such bad memory. The information I received is given by TDW. Maybe, the figures I remember are prime rates other than inflation rates.

 

[lostinblue]

70 to 80年真惨，10年那么高的通货，怎么活啊

 

[ccc]

To CCC:

I can be wrong, but I don't think I have such bad memory. The information I received is given by TDW. Maybe, the figures I remember are prime rates other than inflation rates.

Never mind, this is only a forum to exchange knowledge and ideas. I don't have a good memory and I can be wrong sometimes myself.

I believe you were talking about the highest 5-year, posted fixed mortgage interest rates in the mid-80's. Please see the chart below.

The actual mortgate rates were lower than the posted ones. See the other chart.

In this sense, buying a house today with a doubled price at a 2-3% morgage rate could end up paying not too much than in the 80's.

 

[ccc]

顺便提供一个关于固定利率同浮动利率的比较。我是抄来的，仅供参考。

Mortgage Rate History

Fixed Rates vs. Variable Rates Mortgages

A variable rate mortgage loan allows the borrower flexibility in times where a fixed rate may not be the best choice. Variable rate mortgages have typically been a better option for the consumer over the last 10 years — as represented in the graph below. The interest rate was previously calculated at an ongoing basis at prime minus a set percentage. In the summer of 2008 the Variable Rate Mortgage changed from a Prime Minus offering to a Prime Plus offering due to credit markets and the US Credit Crisis. Availability of funds has become scarce so, to combat the problem of scare credit and to tighten the belt slightly, Prime Plus has become the new benchmark. Today, for example, if the prime-lending rate is at 3.50 per cent, the holder of a prime plus .55 per cent mortgage will pay a 4.05 per cent interest rate, until the prime rate changes. (Prime rate is the "best" rate that the banks use when pricing loans to their most creditworthy customers.) This is still an unbelievable product in terms or savings and options.
To show a comparable 5 year fixed rate verses a variable rate mortgage, the 5-year bank posted has been adjusted by a reduction of one and a half per cent. This is typically the discount offered by most mortgage brokers in Canada.
To show a comparable 5 year fixed rate verses a variable rate mortgage, the 5-year bank posted has been adjusted by a reduction of one and a half per cent. This is typically the discount offered by most mortgage brokers in Canada.