加拿大房市旺 2010年上涨空间很大！

[benboo]

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加拿大房市旺 2010年上涨空间很大！
多伦多信息港 http://www.1tor.com 2010年01月10日 [ 字号：缩小 增大]
据世界日报消息, 在经历强烈反弹的2009年之后，加拿大房地产今年上半年仍将异常强劲，这是Royal LePage房地产公司7日所公布研究报告得出的结论。

Royal LePage这项对加拿大房地产的分析和展望，与最近公布的其他预测报告一致。加拿大房地产市场在前年下半年开始下跌，去年第一季跌至谷底，但自去年春季起快速反弹。

美国爆发的次级房贷危机，和继之发生的金融、经济双重危机，引爆了全球性经济危机，加拿大房地产市场前年下半年突然暴跌就是这么发生的。可是加拿大房地产 的上升趋势持续了不到一年，复苏比美国早了很多，分析师们认为，这一方面是因为加拿大金融体系稳固，另一方面就是利率处于历史低位，消费者信心也优于美 国。

Royal LePage执行长索普（Phil Soper）说，进入2010年后，加拿大房地产市场还有很大上升空间，表现将优于2009年。

根据该公司的计算，加拿大去年第四季各种类型的房价均优于前年同期：独立平房（detached bungalow）房价上升到31万5055元，升幅6%；标准的二层住宅（standard two-storey home）价钱上升至35万3026元，涨幅5.2%；标准的共管公寓（standardcondominium）单位价格上升到20万5756元，升幅 6.4%。

这项研究报告说，在经济衰退期间跌幅大的地区，现在回升幅度也较大，这样的地区包括多伦多、卑诗省的低地地区。其中最典型的是加拿大房价最昂贵的温哥华， 各种类型住宅的房价回升幅度都很大。去年第四季度与前年第四季相比，温哥华独立平房平均价格82万8750元，涨幅11.4%；公寓单位平均价格45万 2750元，涨幅11.8%；独立二层楼房平均价格91万7500元，涨幅9.6%。

Royal LePage预测，温哥华房价今年还将上升7.2%，尽管因为举行冬季奥运会，温哥华今年2月的房地产市场会缓慢些。在多伦多地区，去年第四季度与前年同 期相比，独立平房平均价格44万6214元，涨幅9.9%；公寓单位平均价格30万9316元，涨幅2.9%；独立二层楼房平均价格56万4175元，涨 幅3.5%。

在满地可，独立平房平均价格24万5125元，涨幅3.1%；公寓单位平均价格21万6677元，涨幅16%；独立二层楼房平均价格34万5789元，涨幅12.3%。

不仅房价上涨，房屋交易也非常热络。例如多伦多地产局6日报告，2009年大多地区共通过其房地产求售网，完成8万7308笔房屋交易，比2008年增加17%。

 

[陨石]

So many people are selling their houses!

 

[xiaoyoyo]

单看渥村的话，房价肯定是会涨的

 

[dvd888]

忽有。看一看老美佛罗里达的房子，都掉了一半了。还没有到底的迹象。
多年以前，谁敢说佛罗里达的房子能掉价？

 

[Helen Mao]

Below are the comments from Don R. Campbell, the author of "Real estate investing in Canada"

2010 Real Estate Outlook
Key Points

1. This coming year in real estate will be more a regional story than a national story than ever before. National and average numbers will be much less relevant to the investor. In fact, average price numbers will be ignored by most sophisticated investors as we focus on uncovering above average cash-flow at below average prices.

2. Sale's frenzy will continue in the spring of 2010 as the autumn 2009 momentum continues apace. This buying spree across the country is unsustainable market exuberance based mostly on investors and homeowners trying to 'time the market'. Prices in GTA and Vancouver have already increased more quickly than the economic fundamentals would support. In fact, they have gained all of their recessionary losses - even though their economies haven't really changed. Be prepared for some negative news in the late summer in these areas, which will lead to opportunity.

3. We will see a dramatic jump in listings coming in most regions of the country in the spring as sellers also try to time the market. This will lead to a much more balanced market with more subdued average price increases. Confidence will begin to increase on the prairies which will help take up this increased inventory. Late Spring will provide a good time to uncover undervalued properties.

4. MAJOR TREND for 2010 - 2011: Investors will become more aware that a combination of real estate, equities and bonds is a true balanced portfolio. In the past, many investors decided that they were either equity/debt investors or real estate investors. The truth is that this has limited investor's upside while increasing their risks through sector exposure. Value investing is value investing, and well chosen undervalued dividend producing stocks equate to well chosen undervalued positive cash flow real estate. Return-on-cash calculations will be more important than ever in 2010. This is a trend that is already beginning to take hold and will see a strong resurgence in 2010.

5. The addition of the HST in BC and Ontario will have a psychologically negative effect on the new home markets in late 2010, that is why we will see a jump in new home sales and starts in the early part of the year (which many commentators will call a trend- but they would be wrong), then these numbers will begin falling off in the summer. The new home market is important to the health of a region's overall economy due to the number of jobs it creates and economic stimulus it generates. This downturn in housing starts will lead to increased unemployment figures in late 2010 in Ontario and BC (coupled with the mass layoffs that have to occur after the Olympics are completed).

6. Housing markets have adjusted in Alberta and Saskatchewan and have not seen the 2009 frenzy. The reality is that the Prairie region has what the world requires when the global economies start a strong and consistent recovery - Food, Fuel and Fertilizer. All of these commodities will be in high demand in 2011 and beyond which provides long term investors an opportunity due to the relatively low prices and strong ROI's currently being enjoyed in the region's housing markets. Best not to wait until the frenzy begins, pick your well selected positive cash-flow properties during this slower time, then wait.

7. Real Estate areas to be very cautious about:
1. Forestry specific towns - still a long way to go for recovery (more mills closing in January) despite the new forest product's deal with China.
2. Pre-Sale Condos (didn't we learn how risky these can be during the last boom?) Seriously, when will people learn that lining up for anything creates an artificial demand which provides zero opportunity for negotiations? Why do you think they are marketed this way? It is not investing, it is speculating.
3. Recreational property - Always the first to be hit in a downturn and the last to recover in an upswing.
4. US Property (warning, we won't have witnessed the worst there until at least mid 2012 - despite the recent sales figures released). Make sure you read our article on the US market HERE. Also watch the commercial real estate market in the US, it is about to enter a downward cycle like we haven't seen in decades.

 

[rain day]

忽有。看一看老美佛罗里达的房子，都掉了一半了。还没有到底的迹象。
多年以前，谁敢说佛罗里达的房子能掉价？

The lady worked with me ,she bought a 2 br apartment at Florida cost $60,000

 

[rain day]

忽悠

 

[ccc]

有人告诉我该卖房了。专家的话，不是没有道理啊。过去这位专家可从来没有在这里这么说过。

 

[cmah]

大环境是全球资本过剩. “现在最不值钱的就是钱”！ 必须搞个泡沫主题. 象房地产, 石油, 黄金.. H1N1也算一个, 还有GLOBAL WARMING.

 

[sip]

The lady worked with me ,she bought a 2 br apartment at Florida cost $60,000

价格实在是诱人，今天查了一下，Tempa附近的２bed+2bath的Condo３万就能买到。
可是如何打理呢？总不能空着等退休再住吧?

 

[京华倦客]

新年开工没两天，一个同事就提前申请退休跟老公搬到miami去了。。。

 

[sip]

新年开工没两天，一个同事就提前申请退休跟老公搬到miami去了。。。

据说加拿大人买房，最多只能在美国住６个月，否则得申请美国签证，还有失去加拿大医疗保险的风险。

 

[cmah]

价格实在是诱人，今天查了一下，Tempa附近的２bed+2bath的Condo３万就能买到。
可是如何打理呢？总不能空着等退休再住吧?

据说就是CONDO费太贵. 大楼里没几个人住, 几个人全包.

 

[sip]

据说就是CONDO费太贵. 大楼里没几个人住, 几个人全包.

如果那是一个主要原因，是否也来个渥太华团购？ 然后分担费用就低了。
佛罗里达房价才可以说是“上涨空间很大”(因为掉到谷底了)。

 

[cmah]

好主意. 不过我也很犹豫. 买不是问题, 问题是怎么管理? 鞭长末及. OTTAWA附近怎么没这好事呢.