股票推荐抛砖引玉篇

[oureal]

最近以来很少见到荐股的帖子，游子的那篇”苦辣“贴几乎成了”游子“和”CAT"的二人转，而且两人还特热衷于满篇英文，先申明一下：没有一点歧视英文的意思，你中文是语言，人家英文就不是话了？绝对没这意思。
问题是参与性太少，以前那些荐股的高手都上哪去了？记得去年时候还挺热闹的。

先抛个砖出来：
最近油价一直在涨，感觉$83基本差不多了，开始看跌，买入 HOD，均价$8.4.
今年的天然气简直是邪门，跌势不止，HND/HNU，一直操作不好，找不着感觉。
另外，今天 $4.18 SHORTED 了5000股的 C（Citigroup), $3.69 SHORTED 5000股 的S,赚点蝇头小利。

 

[风 雨]

在今天卖空Citigroup(C)的是好手, 但不能太贪, 落到3.6--3.5估计就会回弹.

 

[oureal]

在今天卖空Citigroup(C)的是好手, 但不能太贪, 落到3.6--3.5估计就会回弹.

谢谢提醒，准备到下周三左右COVER 回来。

 

[nightingale]

HOD

seems too weak (sorry, new computer, no chinese input yet)

 

[lazycatcat]

I don't have Chinese software and thus can only do English posting. More interest in stock investment and speculation is definitely a good thing.

No clue on oil/gas prices. Shorting Citi at current level is interesting:

1. Cost of US government on Citi is $3.25 per share.
2. Citi's max earning power back in 2007 is $20 B. At P/E of 10, Citi may be worth $8.
3. It may take a few years before Citi can generate $20 B net profit.
4. There is still a lot of work to do on Citi's business and balance sheet.

Therefore, it may be reasonable to assume Citi might be trading in between $3 to $5 without significant events. Not sure if this range is good enough for shorting or longing. However, it might be interesting to collect option premiums if one has an appetite for risk and is following Citi operation very closely....

 

[加京游子]

I like more exchange of ideas too

The reason I post in English is because typing in English is a lot easier for me.

Usually, I don't like to comment on others' trading but in your case, let me simply say that shorting any stock is a bad idea unless it is hedged with options, simply because the risk is unspeakably high in case of a wrong call. The better way is to buy puts. Worst comes worst, your puts premium is wiped out. Secondly, why short such a low-priced stock? Even if it goes to zero, how much profit is there in it to be made? Lots of better shorting candidates out there. I put AIG today.

Good luck!

 

[oureal]

楼上二位的指点不错。做过一些OPTION，赚少赔多，而且交易费太贵。
今年开始尝试用 2/3 的POSITION 做DAY TRADING ，一买一卖只要够$20($9.95 X 2)的交易费，其余的就是盈利了（或者亏损了），不过手要快，尤其是天然气。
“游子”的药类板块太复杂，看不懂所以也从来不碰。

 

[lazycatcat]

Try InteractiveBrokers. The commission is $1 for each stock transaction and $1 for each option contract without further commissions.

The bio field is perfect for option play. There is no obvious information advantage by any group - unlike oil and natural gas. The volatility is huge normally around a single event. Players tend to be hyper blooded and hyper charged (either pessimistic or optimistic).

Therefore, options could be mispriced quite severely in bio company around a certain event.

Apart from speculation, I am more interested in finding early stage good companies with long-term growth potentials. Leaving Berkshire Hathaway and Fairfax financials aside, companies like Hans Natural (HANS), Outdoor Deck (DECK), Panera, Green Mountain Coffee are all good recent examples of such high growth companies.

Plus, with proper investment theory (based on Buffett and Graham), these companies are recognizable in early stage and their prices were all very accomodating for investing (unlike DNDN or ITNM that are not possible to identify for most people).

 

[oureal]

天然气市场现在完全被人为操纵，自二月份以来每周四的储量报告都成为空方打压的筹码，比较报告数据并没有过多熊相，反而中性或偏牛，即使是很扫北美大部的几场暴风雪都没有使天然气有个像样的反弹。4月份天然气合约周五破$4.4, HND 与HNU 在上周四于$ 7.15 CROSS后开始背向运行。现在天气转暖，未来两周的报告估计也会利空不利多，希望能在 INJECTION之前 天然气会有个阶段底部。

 

[加京游子]

楼上二位的指点不错。做过一些OPTION，赚少赔多，而且交易费太贵。
今年开始尝试用 2/3 的POSITION 做DAY TRADING ，一买一卖只要够$20($9.95 X 2)的交易费，其余的就是盈利了（或者亏损了），不过手要快，尤其是天然气。
“游子”的药类板块太复杂，看不懂所以也从来不碰。

只做自己认为懂的，这是做股票的入门要求。做自己认为懂的，由于分析、判断、操作等失误，可能赔了钱但自己至少知道是怎么赔的。多少人人云亦云，听别人讲了就买，根本就不知道自己买了什么，赚了钱当然是好事，但连赔了钱都不知道咋回事。那是做股票的大戒之一！

哥们：坚持自己的方法，值得称赞！再接再厉，稳扎稳打，祝你发大财！

 

[oureal]

只做自己认为懂的，这是做股票的入门要求。做自己认为懂的，由于分析、判断、操作等失误，可能赔了钱但自己至少知道是怎么赔的。多少人人云亦云，听别人讲了就买，根本就不知道自己买了什么，赚了钱当然是好事，但连赔了钱都不知道咋回事。那是做股票的大戒之一！

哥们：坚持自己的方法，值得称赞！再接再厉，稳扎稳打，祝你发大财！

感谢“游子”朋友的鼓励，也祝你虎年大运。
上周五抛砖出来，先后砸了下石油，接着又砸了C 和S，看看能否砸出些钱来。

 

[加京游子]

感谢“游子”朋友的鼓励，也祝你虎年大运。
上周五抛砖出来，先后砸了下石油，接着又砸了C 和S，看看能否砸出些钱来。

对你的仓位没有关注，没有发言权。

虎年乃我两个“本命年”之一，看来我真要虎威如虹、气冲云霄了。上礼拜翻了一番，这礼拜有望再翻一番，具体仓位看我的近贴。如果虎年我虎威如虹，那明年在我的另一个“本命年”里，我一定跑得比兔子还快！

 

[oureal]

感谢“游子”朋友的鼓励，也祝你虎年大运。
上周五抛砖出来，先后砸了下石油，接着又砸了C 和S，看看能否砸出些钱来。

一砖下去，石油立马缩头了，呵呵。
顺便提醒一下各位朋友，车今天没油的话，挺一下，挺到明天再加油，应该更便宜。

 

[sera]

oil and gas

石油好像还要涨？

这天然气我是深套了。哎！总觉得底部到了，结果一补仓，又跌了！是不是美国人就不让天然气涨呀？因为俄罗斯天然气丰富？

 

[oureal]

天燃气现在轻易不要言底，还有两个报告估计才会进入INJECTION 期，无论两个报告如何，都不会马上转U，机构预测本周四 报告数据是 -11 左右， 今年几次的 -190 左右都没有使天燃气回升，所以现在无论是U还是D，都轻易别去买。